WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[RobWESTPACWX]

First Typhoon of the Season.

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 018
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.5N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.5N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 31.1N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---

[Infdidoll]

Infidoll, I think you were saying earlier Kadena is in TC COR 3, where are you getting that info?

I didn't...Maybe Storming did? But here is where you could find that information:
http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/update/tccor.htm

Kadena also has a Facebook page and they update pretty frequently (though I haven't heard them say a peep about this storm yet):
https://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase

The Commander Fleet Activities page also makes announcements on weather:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Commande ... 7702192852

I'd imagine we wouldn't go into TCOR 3 until tomorrow night or early Thursday.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Prognostic Reasoning from the 12:00 UTC warning.

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM FILLS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
INFLOW OF HIGHLY SATURATED AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED ASYMMETRY IN THE
CONVECTION, WITH THE HIGHEST TOPS CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 240732Z SSMI PASS SHOWS NEARLY CONTINUOUS LOW LEVEL
BANDING AROUND THE LLCC AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION RELATIVE
TO PREVIOUS PASSES. TY 04W IS TRACKING STEADILY THROUGH A BREAK IN
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. CONDITIONS ALONG
TRACK ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND LESS THAN 10 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FIXING AGENCIES AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE CURRENT POSITION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MARIANAS
AND SHIFTS WESTWARD. TY 04W WILL STEER ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THAT RIDGE AND THEN RECURVE THROUGH THE RYUKUS, GRADUALLY
ACCELERATING AND TRACKING SEAWARD OF KYUSHU AND SHIKOKU. DURING THE
FIRST 72 HOURS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK WHILE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL REMAIN HIGH,
ALLOWING SONGDA TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH 20 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING
TRACK AND SPEED THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
EGRR AND JGSM, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
LUZON AND INTO THE LUZON STRAIT. NOGAPS, GFS, AND GFDN, AS WELL AS
CONSENSUS, ALL INDICATE THAT TY 04W WILL ROUND THE WESTERNMOST ARC
OF THE RIDGE AND ENTER ITS RECURVATURE PHASE NEAR TAU 66, AT
APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. SIMULTANEOUSLY THE SYSTEM
WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72
FOLLOWS CONSENSUS.
C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND OCEAN HEAT PROFILES INDICATE THAT
TY 04W WILL ENCOUNTER SHARPLY LESS FAVORABLE OCEANOGRAPHIC
CONDITIONS NORTH OF 25 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. SOME OF THE
OCEANOGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL BE MITIGATED BY A TEMPORARY BOOST IN
OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG AS FAR SOUTH AS TAIWAN NEAR 281200Z AND BOOST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ABOVE TYPHOON INTENSITY
THROUGH THE NORTHERN RYUKUS. BY THE TIME TY 04W MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN RYUKUS, HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND COUPLE WITH THE UNFAVORABLE OCEANOGRAPHIC
CONDITIONS TO WEAKEN THE STORM. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
EQUATORWARD OF MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72 IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
OBSERVED TENDENCIES DURING RECURVATURE SCENARIOS.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

At last the models finally turned back east. It's been days that those model runs were shifting left and right. Though that could be a bad news for those in Okinawa because an early recurve means a direct hit. And even Songda would sideswipe the east coast, it also would induce more cloudiness in the western seaboards of the country. Well is the Philippines only experiencing this thing when a cyclone passes north of Luzon and the monsoon will be pulled towards the island? Even as of now, the cloudiness along the western sections including Manila is bringing rainy weather.

Well, stay safe for those who will be affected by this storm. I think Im gonna be off for days because I'll be in Baguio City tomorrow morning. Hopefully, Songda's effects will be minimal in there.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ok, I must have read it wrong, I know the link for Kadena's page, its not posted there that is why I was curios.

I would defiantly expect at least TCOR 4 in the next 12 hours, actually rather surprised it has not been set yet.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Very long range but something to keep in mind, I was actually asked this question just recently here, if the storm..

If the storm re-curves and runs up the East coast of Honshu it could spell some winds for the Tsunami Stricken area, specifically the Fukushima Diachi Power Plant.

Something to keep in mind, just when that place seems to be getting under control.

[dexterlabio]

Very long range but something to keep in mind, I was actually asked this question just recently here, if the storm..

If the storm re-curves and runs up the East coast of Honshu it could spell some winds for the Tsunami Stricken area, specifically the Fukushima Diachi Power Plant.

Something to keep in mind, just when that place seems to be getting under control.

That's gonna make the nuclear crisis worse in Fukushima. I hope it won't affect the people there as they have already suffered from the earthquake and tsunami last March.

[oaba09]

At last the models finally turned back east. It's been days that those model runs were shifting left and right. Though that could be a bad news for those in Okinawa because an early recurve means a direct hit. And even Songda would sideswipe the east coast, it also would induce more cloudiness in the western seaboards of the country. Well is the Philippines only experiencing this thing when a cyclone passes north of Luzon and the monsoon will be pulled towards the island? Even as of now, the cloudiness along the western sections including Manila is bringing rainy weather.

Well, stay safe for those who will be affected by this storm. I think Im gonna be off for days because I'll be in Baguio City tomorrow morning. Hopefully, Songda's effects will be minimal in there.

Have a safe trip! It's definitely gonna be cold and wet there because of the enhanced SW monsoon....

[Infdidoll]

Ok, I must have read it wrong, I know the link for Kadena's page, its not posted there that is why I was curios.

I would defiantly expect at least TCOR 4 in the next 12 hours, actually rather surprised it has not been set yet.

I just noticed that they don't even have us at TCOR 4 - I wonder what that's about? From what I understood, we were supposed to be in TCOR 4 all year round because of the high probability of typhoons in this area. It should at least be at TCOR 4, right now. Weather Underground has it hitting here (as a Cat 2) on Saturday morning and I think TCOR 3 is supposed to be issued 48 hours in advance.

[dexterlabio]

Thanks, oaba09! I'm just quite worried because I won't be able to check on this storm especially when this typhoon is gonna make an unexpected move (I hope it won't happen).




I expect a quick round of intensification tomorrow as it enters the "typhoon-friendly" seas east of Luzon.

[cycloneye]

The 12:00z forecast track by JTWC.

[ManilaTC]

Looks like it has maintained a west track over the last 6 hours.

[Extratropical94]

Ok, I must have read it wrong, I know the link for Kadena's page, its not posted there that is why I was curios.

I would defiantly expect at least TCOR 4 in the next 12 hours, actually rather surprised it has not been set yet.

I just noticed that they don't even have us at TCOR 4 - I wonder what that's about? From what I understood, we were supposed to be in TCOR 4 all year round because of the high probability of typhoons in this area. It should at least be at TCOR 4, right now. Weather Underground has it hitting here (as a Cat 2) on Saturday morning and I think TCOR 3 is supposed to be issued 48 hours in advance.

You will be at TCCOR 4 from June 1 to November 30, basically in the main typhoon season.
However there's no better point in time to issue TCCOR 4 than now.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ok, I must have read it wrong, I know the link for Kadena's page, its not posted there that is why I was curios.

I would defiantly expect at least TCOR 4 in the next 12 hours, actually rather surprised it has not been set yet.

I just noticed that they don't even have us at TCOR 4 - I wonder what that's about? From what I understood, we were supposed to be in TCOR 4 all year round because of the high probability of typhoons in this area. It should at least be at TCOR 4, right now. Weather Underground has it hitting here (as a Cat 2) on Saturday morning and I think TCOR 3 is supposed to be issued 48 hours in advance.

Sort of True, Okinawa goes in to TC COR 4 when Tropical season starts (technically the 1st of June) So right now no TC COR is in effect since it is May.

[dexterlabio]

The 12:00z forecast track by JTWC.

The forecast track together with the track history forms a parabolic figure opening to the right. Oh yes I'm kinda seeing senseless things right now. I just hope that the ET to develop from Songda will track eastwards instead of going all the way to Honshu.

[ManilaTC]

No poleward shift in track movement still. If this image is to be trusted, the storm actually slid WSW over the last few hours.

Do the agencies rely on ADT fixes?

[cycloneye]

JMA still has not upgraded to Typhoon at 15:45 UTC

STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 24 May 2011
<Analyses at 24/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30'(12.5°)
E128°40'(128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE310km(170NM)
SW240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 25/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

No poleward shift in track movement still. If this image is to be trusted, the storm actually slid WSW over the last few hours.

Do the agencies rely on ADT fixes?

Ok, I thought it was just my eyes playing tricks on me but I noticed a slight shift to the south on the loop.

[ManilaTC]

Conflicting fixes though.

TPPN10 PGTW 241506
A. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA)
B. 24/1432Z
C. 12.3N
D. 128.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0922Z 12.5N 129.6E SSMS
24/1008Z 12.4N 129.4E AMSU

TXPN24 KNES 241534
SIMWIR
A. 04W (SONGDA)
B. 24/1432Z
C. 12.6N
D. 128.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT OF 4.5. PT AGREES WHILE
MET IS 4.0. FT BASED ON PT. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 30 NM.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL


...MYRGA

[dexterlabio]

Conflicting fixes though.

TPPN10 PGTW 241506
A. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA)
B. 24/1432Z
C. 12.3N
D. 128.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0922Z 12.5N 129.6E SSMS
24/1008Z 12.4N 129.4E AMSU

TXPN24 KNES 241534
SIMWIR
A. 04W (SONGDA)
B. 24/1432Z
C. 12.6N
D. 128.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT OF 4.5. PT AGREES WHILE
MET IS 4.0. FT BASED ON PT. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 30 NM.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL


...MYRGA

That's been my issue always with sat fixes. It's hard to know the concise location of the center because of the different indications of the location. Btw I also noticed that straight westward jog, if not going wsw. The next hours are critical to observe if this trend continues.