Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
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CrazyC83
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Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
charlesw wrote:I am wondering if we will see a >95/>95 PDS again today
Very possible. We'll knew in about 2-4 hours.
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Extratropical94
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Re:
Bunkertor wrote:Particularly Dirkulous Situation for Oklahoma City
Warning remains in affect until Wednesday.
Nice one.
TOR:CON at 9 for south-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma.
And a 7 for south-central Oklahoma.
Forecast for Tuesday, May 24
AR north - 4 to 5
CT - 2 to 3
DE - 2 to 3
IA southwest - 2 to 3
IL central - 4
IL south - 3
IN central - 3 to 4
IN south - 3
KS south-central - 9
KS west - 2 to 3
KS north-central - 4 to 5
KS southeast - 6
KS northeast - 4 to 5
KY - 2 to 3
MA - 2 to 3
MD - 2 to 3
MO - 6
NE south - 2 to 3
NJ - 2 to 3
NY south - 2 to 3
OH central and south - 2 to 3
OK north-central - 9
OK south-central - 7
OK northeast - 5 to 6
PA south and east - 2 to 3
RI - 2 to 3
TN - 2 to 3
TX north-central - 6
TX south-central - 4
VA - 2 to 3
WV - 2 to 3
other areas - less than 2
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Tue May 24, 2011 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
OUCH - 45% tornado threat! That happened April 27 and we know what happened. POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC.
SPC AC 241625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...AND NORTH CENTRAL
TX...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TX...MOST OF OK...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO...AND NORTHWEST AR....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....
...AN INTENSE OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX...
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS EVENING. LATEST TCC PROFILER DATA SHOWS 90+
KNOT FLOW AT 6KM...INDICATIVE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX THAT
WILL NOSE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TX...OK...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. BY MID AFTERNOON
THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH
NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-4500 J/KG.
PRESENT INDICATIONS AND LATEST OPERATIONS/MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
KS/OK DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EARLY IN THE
EVENT...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE OVER KS AS STORMS
INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUED HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
TRACK ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS.
DURING THE LATE EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF MO/AR WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN VA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST BY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...40-50 KNOT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/24/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1632Z (12:32PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 241625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...AND NORTH CENTRAL
TX...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TX...MOST OF OK...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO...AND NORTHWEST AR....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....
...AN INTENSE OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX...
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS EVENING. LATEST TCC PROFILER DATA SHOWS 90+
KNOT FLOW AT 6KM...INDICATIVE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX THAT
WILL NOSE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TX...OK...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. BY MID AFTERNOON
THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH
NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-4500 J/KG.
PRESENT INDICATIONS AND LATEST OPERATIONS/MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
KS/OK DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EARLY IN THE
EVENT...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE OVER KS AS STORMS
INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUED HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
TRACK ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS.
DURING THE LATE EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF MO/AR WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN VA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST BY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...40-50 KNOT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/24/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1632Z (12:32PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
snoopj wrote:Wow. 45% tornado corridor basically right in the heart of Oklahoma, accompanied with a 60% hail corridor on the 1630z Day 1. Puts OKC right in the bullseye on that one.
I have a REALLY bad feeling about this...
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Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:snoopj wrote:Wow. 45% tornado corridor basically right in the heart of Oklahoma, accompanied with a 60% hail corridor on the 1630z Day 1. Puts OKC right in the bullseye on that one.
I have a REALLY bad feeling about this...
And let's not forget Tulsa is on the eastern edge of that same zone. Two of Oklahoma's biggest cities right in the bullseye zone.
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Re:
snoopj wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:snoopj wrote:Wow. 45% tornado corridor basically right in the heart of Oklahoma, accompanied with a 60% hail corridor on the 1630z Day 1. Puts OKC right in the bullseye on that one.
I have a REALLY bad feeling about this...
And let's not forget Tulsa is on the eastern edge of that same zone. Two of Oklahoma's biggest cities right in the bullseye zone.
Not to mention Wichita and several smaller cities...
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
So here is my thinking for initiation:
Early afternoon: Activity will start over Kansas, centered in the Dodge City-Hays-Garden City area around 1 to 2 pm. Large hail and scattered tornadoes, one or two may be strong.
Mid to late afternoon: Here is when it gets horrific. Dryline cells roughly along a corridor from Wichita Falls through Lawton, Watonga and Cherokee to Medicine Lodge around 3 pm. Then I think they will be tracking into the I-35 corridor between 4 and 6 pm - afternoon rush hour.
Early afternoon: Activity will start over Kansas, centered in the Dodge City-Hays-Garden City area around 1 to 2 pm. Large hail and scattered tornadoes, one or two may be strong.
Mid to late afternoon: Here is when it gets horrific. Dryline cells roughly along a corridor from Wichita Falls through Lawton, Watonga and Cherokee to Medicine Lodge around 3 pm. Then I think they will be tracking into the I-35 corridor between 4 and 6 pm - afternoon rush hour.
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srainhoutx
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- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
^
Keep an eye W of I-35 along and near the dryline. Concern growing for long track tonadoes within the High Risk zone.
Keep an eye W of I-35 along and near the dryline. Concern growing for long track tonadoes within the High Risk zone.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Notice most areas reporting Sunny or Mostly Sunny (a few clouds) right now. Dewpoints in the 70s in the threatened areas too.
000
ASUS44 KOUN 241700
RWROK
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
OKZ001>007-009>012-014-015-017-241800-
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GAGE SUNNY 90 38 16 S16 29.57F
GUYMON SUNNY 78 53 41 VRB3 29.58F
$$
OKZ016-021>023-033>039-044-045-241800-
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
LAWTON/REGL MOSUNNY 84 71 65 S22G31 29.63F HAZE
LAWTON/FT SILL CLOUDY 80 71 72 S22 29.63F
FREDERICK PTSUNNY 89 71 55 S21G29 29.58F HX 95
CLINTON SUNNY 85 65 51 S21G33 29.62F
HOBART MOSUNNY 85 72 65 S23G31 29.61F HX 91
ALTUS AFB SUNNY 89 71 54 S22G29 29.60F HX 95
$$
OKZ018>020-024>031-241800-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
OKLAHOMA CITY CLOUDY 79 71 76 S20G28 29.67S
OKC/WILEY POST MOSUNNY 81 71 71 S30G37 29.64F
OKC/TINKER AFB MOSUNNY 79 71 78 S21G30 29.67F
STILLWATER PTSUNNY 80 70 71 S24G32 29.64F
GUTHRIE PTSUNNY 81 71 71 S20G29 29.63F
$$
OKZ008-013-054>072-241800-
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TULSA CLOUDY 77 67 71 S17G24 29.67F
TULSA/JONES CLOUDY 80 70 71 S13G22 29.68F
PONCA CITY PTSUNNY 79 69 71 S14G23 29.62F
BARTLESVILLE CLOUDY 74 67 78 S14G22 29.68F
MUSKOGEE CLOUDY 77 69 76 S15 29.73F
$$
OKZ032-040>043-046>053-073>077-241800-
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ARDMORE/DWNTWN CLOUDY 73 68 83 S9G18 29.71F
MCALESTER CLOUDY 79 70 74 S17G26 29.73F
$$
000
ASUS44 KOUN 241700
RWROK
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
OKZ001>007-009>012-014-015-017-241800-
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GAGE SUNNY 90 38 16 S16 29.57F
GUYMON SUNNY 78 53 41 VRB3 29.58F
$$
OKZ016-021>023-033>039-044-045-241800-
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
LAWTON/REGL MOSUNNY 84 71 65 S22G31 29.63F HAZE
LAWTON/FT SILL CLOUDY 80 71 72 S22 29.63F
FREDERICK PTSUNNY 89 71 55 S21G29 29.58F HX 95
CLINTON SUNNY 85 65 51 S21G33 29.62F
HOBART MOSUNNY 85 72 65 S23G31 29.61F HX 91
ALTUS AFB SUNNY 89 71 54 S22G29 29.60F HX 95
$$
OKZ018>020-024>031-241800-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
OKLAHOMA CITY CLOUDY 79 71 76 S20G28 29.67S
OKC/WILEY POST MOSUNNY 81 71 71 S30G37 29.64F
OKC/TINKER AFB MOSUNNY 79 71 78 S21G30 29.67F
STILLWATER PTSUNNY 80 70 71 S24G32 29.64F
GUTHRIE PTSUNNY 81 71 71 S20G29 29.63F
$$
OKZ008-013-054>072-241800-
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TULSA CLOUDY 77 67 71 S17G24 29.67F
TULSA/JONES CLOUDY 80 70 71 S13G22 29.68F
PONCA CITY PTSUNNY 79 69 71 S14G23 29.62F
BARTLESVILLE CLOUDY 74 67 78 S14G22 29.68F
MUSKOGEE CLOUDY 77 69 76 S15 29.73F
$$
OKZ032-040>043-046>053-073>077-241800-
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ARDMORE/DWNTWN CLOUDY 73 68 83 S9G18 29.71F
MCALESTER CLOUDY 79 70 74 S17G26 29.73F
$$
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Tomorrow still uncertain, but the outbreak will likely go to Day 5.
SPC AC 241653
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO/AR NORTHEAST INTO
INDIANA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK ACROSS
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM
MO/AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES...
VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS DURING THE LATE DAY1 EARLY DAY2 PERIOD WHERE DEEPENING IS
EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL SFC CYCLONE
WILL EVOLVE OVER CNTRL KS COINCIDENT WITH DEEPENING UPPER LOW BY
25/12Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ENABLE A BROAD WARM SECTOR TO RETURN
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE 70S SFC DEW
POINTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR/WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN
INSTIGATOR FOR PRE-DAWN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER KS/MO AND WARM
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE EPISODIC SEVERE CLUSTERS
DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE E-W
BOUNDARY RETREATS TOWARD LOWER MI. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE
THE WARM BUOYANT AIRMASS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MO/AR INTO NRN
LA AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING/MIXING WILL ENABLE
THIS BOUNDARY TO SURGE NEWD DURING THE DAY AND WILL AID DISCRETE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 80S...THOUGH
TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MO AT SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS INITIAL
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY STRONGLY SUPPORTS INTENSE UPDRAFTS/ROTATION THAT
SHOULD LEAD TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT
STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED ALONG THE MODERATE RISK CORRIDOR. AS
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS AR INTO SRN IL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE SURGING DRYLINE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
DOWNSTREAM...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO WRN VA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY WELL
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND POSE AT LEAST A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..DARROW.. 05/24/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1710Z (1:10PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 241653
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO/AR NORTHEAST INTO
INDIANA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK ACROSS
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM
MO/AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES...
VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS DURING THE LATE DAY1 EARLY DAY2 PERIOD WHERE DEEPENING IS
EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL SFC CYCLONE
WILL EVOLVE OVER CNTRL KS COINCIDENT WITH DEEPENING UPPER LOW BY
25/12Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ENABLE A BROAD WARM SECTOR TO RETURN
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE 70S SFC DEW
POINTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR/WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN
INSTIGATOR FOR PRE-DAWN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER KS/MO AND WARM
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE EPISODIC SEVERE CLUSTERS
DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE E-W
BOUNDARY RETREATS TOWARD LOWER MI. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE
THE WARM BUOYANT AIRMASS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MO/AR INTO NRN
LA AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING/MIXING WILL ENABLE
THIS BOUNDARY TO SURGE NEWD DURING THE DAY AND WILL AID DISCRETE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 80S...THOUGH
TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MO AT SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS INITIAL
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY STRONGLY SUPPORTS INTENSE UPDRAFTS/ROTATION THAT
SHOULD LEAD TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT
STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED ALONG THE MODERATE RISK CORRIDOR. AS
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS AR INTO SRN IL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE SURGING DRYLINE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
DOWNSTREAM...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO WRN VA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY WELL
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND POSE AT LEAST A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..DARROW.. 05/24/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1710Z (1:10PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
PDS Tornado Watch 356, probably a very high number watch, likely in the next 45 minutes.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241718Z - 241845Z
STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO WEST TX.
THE DRYLINE IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EWD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM I-40 IN WRN OK
SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO IN WCNTRL TX. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP WEAKENS...RAPID CELL INITIATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS...A 50 TO 65
KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS
STORMS INTENSIFY...VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WILL BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN
PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE
450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 36359864 35549906 34789972 34469989 33560003 32959970
32809942 32789855 33159793 33799761 34609702 35689660
36409722 36629823 36359864
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241718Z - 241845Z
STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO WEST TX.
THE DRYLINE IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EWD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM I-40 IN WRN OK
SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO IN WCNTRL TX. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP WEAKENS...RAPID CELL INITIATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS...A 50 TO 65
KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS
STORMS INTENSIFY...VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WILL BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN
PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE
450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 36359864 35549906 34789972 34469989 33560003 32959970
32809942 32789855 33159793 33799761 34609702 35689660
36409722 36629823 36359864
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 241656
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250200-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
...INTENSE TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES.
A STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND OZARKS...BENEATH UNUSUALLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE JET STREAM.
SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN AN ARC FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH TEXAS AS DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR A
RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK STRONG TO
VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE / DEVELOP
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS...
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.
THE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND THIS
EVENING...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A
FEW TORNADOES EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..HART.. 05/24/2011
$$
WOUS40 KWNS 241656
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250200-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
...INTENSE TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES.
A STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND OZARKS...BENEATH UNUSUALLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE JET STREAM.
SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN AN ARC FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH TEXAS AS DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR A
RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK STRONG TO
VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE / DEVELOP
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS...
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.
THE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND THIS
EVENING...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A
FEW TORNADOES EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..HART.. 05/24/2011
$$
0 likes
-
Scorpion
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
Scorpion wrote:My dad is on a business trip and is driving from Wichita to Dodge City today.. probably a little north of the high risk area but still kind of concerned. He didn't even know anything was going on today.
You should contact him and make him aware. This is an extremely dangerous setup.
0 likes
-
Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:snoopj wrote:Wow. 45% tornado corridor basically right in the heart of Oklahoma, accompanied with a 60% hail corridor on the 1630z Day 1. Puts OKC right in the bullseye on that one.
I have a REALLY bad feeling about this...
So do I. A really bad feeling.
And I live here in bull's eye land - I live in Grayson County, 30 miles east of Gainesville, Texas and the I-35 corridor.
I fear for what this evening and tonight is going to bring to me and my neighbors...
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5853
- Age: 59
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Re: Re:
Texas Snowman wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:snoopj wrote:Wow. 45% tornado corridor basically right in the heart of Oklahoma, accompanied with a 60% hail corridor on the 1630z Day 1. Puts OKC right in the bullseye on that one.
I have a REALLY bad feeling about this...
So do I. A really bad feeling.
And I live here in bull's eye land - I live in Grayson County, 30 miles east of Gainesville, Texas and the I-35 corridor.
I fear for what this evening and tonight is going to bring to me and my neighbors...
I do too. Very very eerie feeling....sigh...
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