Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

[Bunkertor]

I have a REALLY bad feeling about this..
So do I. A really bad feeling.

And I live here in bull's eye land - I live in Grayson County, 30 miles east of Gainesville, Texas and the I-35 corridor.
.

How´s the air feeling right now ?

[Ellsey]

Just got the alert for a tornado watch here. Hoping they stay far away from DFW.

[Ntxw]

^ It is exremely muggy and humid, with a wind very ominous. I hope this avoids the big I-35 cities, I'd hate to see this severe weather season go out with a BANG.

Looks like the first tornado watches are out.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado Watch coming out now. It will surely be PDS, the question is how high the numbers will be. My guess is 95/90.

[Tireman4]

^ It is exremely muggy and humid, with a wind very ominous. I hope this avoids the big I-35 cities, I'd hate to see this severe weather season go out with a BANG.

Looks like the first tornado watches are out.

I agree. Let them (tornadoes) hit the open land and not hit anything.....

[Ellsey]

I will second the conditions. It is crazy muggy out there. I put the trash out and was surprised how humid it felt.

[CrazyC83]

^ It is exremely muggy and humid, with a wind very ominous. I hope this avoids the big I-35 cities, I'd hate to see this severe weather season go out with a BANG.

Looks like the first tornado watches are out.

We still have to get through June as well.

[Tireman4]

I will second the conditions. It is crazy muggy out there. I put the trash out and was surprised how humid it felt.

And all the mugginess from Houston areas and points south (Gulf) are streaming your way. Goodness....

[CrazyC83]

Surprisingly low at 90/70. Still an extremely dangerous situation, but I was expecting higher.

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT WORTH
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 352...WW 354...WW 355...

DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED
MIDLEVEL TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO
40-50 KT WILL PROMOTE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INITIAL
HAZARD BEING VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL VEER-BACK WIND PROFILE
OBSERVED IN CURRENT VADS/PROFILERS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BY 00Z WHERE 0-1 KM SRH WILL
APPROACH 400-500 M2/S2. AS SUCH...EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE LONG-TRACKED AND STRONG TO VIOLENT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...MEAD

[CrazyC83]

Second tornado watch, again probably PDS, coming next 1-2 hours.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241759Z - 241930Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS AS STORM
INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY 19Z TO
20Z ACROSS THE REGION.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN CO TO
THE NW OF A SFC LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPANDING EWD ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL
KS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE EXIT REGION
OF A WELL-DEVELOPED 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND
ENHANCING LIFT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A 35 TO 45 LOW-LEVEL JET
IN NRN OK IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NWWD INTO WCNTRL KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS
MAY HAVE A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL KS
WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39649909 39480061 39310161 38370199 37570135 37460033
37649882 37809796 38619760 39279775 39729820 39649909

[Melissa]

I'm south of HWY 50 in Kansas about 20 miles north of Wichita. The sun has been out for about an hour or so and it's feeling really sticky. It looks hazy.

[slowpoke]

been overcast here in okc for a while now. ( patches of sunshine though) when talking about pds whats 90/70 actually mean?

[BlueIce]

Check out the some warning discussion from Norman.

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

MONITORING RAPID SCAN SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR TRENDS IN CLOUD
FORMATION EAST OF THE DRYLINE THAT LIES FROM NEAR ALVA...TO ELK
CITY...TO QUANAH AND BENJAMIN TEXAS. MOST OF THE REGION EAST THE
DRYLINE IS STILL CAPPED...BUT BEGINNING TO SEE EVIDENCE THAT THE
WEAKEST AREA OF CAPPING IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PRESENTLY BELIEVE REGION FROM ELK
CITY...TO NEAR ALTUS...TO ABOUT CROWELL TEXAS WILL BE REGION OF
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY BASED ON THE WELL ADVERTISED
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. INTIAL STORM
MOTION EXPECTED TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST (FROM 230 DEG.) AT ABOUT
35 MPH. AS STORM ASSUME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS EXPECT A MOTION
TO BE A BIT MORE EASTERLY AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER.

[BlueIce]

been overcast here in okc for a while now. ( patches of sunshine though) when talking about pds whats 90/70 actually mean?

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (90%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (70%)

[srainhoutx]

Posted this on the local forum and wanted folk here to know as well...

Seeing reports that the NWS is asking folks to stay off I-35 and I-40 in OK and S KS this afternoon/evening if possible. Obviously our weather folks are doing everything they can to not see a repeat what we have seen the past month due to tornadoes across the US.

[Texas Snowman]

I have a REALLY bad feeling about this..
So do I. A really bad feeling.

And I live here in bull's eye land - I live in Grayson County, 30 miles east of Gainesville, Texas and the I-35 corridor.
.

How´s the air feeling right now ?

Feels VERY sticky and humid. uncomfortably so.

Strong winds at the surface. Sunshine breaking through a thinning cloud deck. Temps are up there in the 80s at last check. No overnight rain or storms to calm the atmosphere down.

Add it all up and I'm very concerned...

[GCANE]

Looks like cap is eroding now ahead of the dryline.

4500 CAPE and 70-knts shear.

RUC had it as a pretty strong inversion.

Should fire soon.

[slowpoke]

been overcast here in okc for a while now. ( patches of sunshine though) when talking about pds whats 90/70 actually mean?

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (90%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (70%)

aha! ok thank you very much. been wondering that for a while. all i knew was the higher the number the worse the outlook was heh. i appreciate you clearing it up for me

[Melissa]

Posted this on the local forum and wanted folk here to know as well...

Seeing reports that the NWS is asking folks to stay off I-35 and I-40 in OK and S KS this afternoon/evening if possible. Obviously our weather folks are doing everything they can to not see a repeat what we have seen the past month due to tornadoes across the US.

Thank you. I put this out via my Twitter.

[RL3AO]

Massive EHI values from RUC