WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[dexterlabio]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 MAY 2011 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 12:13:19 N Lon : 128:49:42 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 974.2mb/ 79.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.7

Center Temp : -74.5C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.6 degrees

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest 85GHZ

[Macrocane]

Songda's appearence has really improved in the last few hours, it has developed strong convection, good outflow in all quadrants and the most important feature: an eye. I think it's in a period of rapid intensification.

[cycloneye]

Songda's appearence has really improved in the last few hours, it has developed strong convection, good outflow in all quadrants and the most important feature: an eye. I think it's in a period of rapid intensification.

Agreed on all your points.

[HURAKAN]

fully fledged typhoon

[HURAKAN]

even more impressive here

[cycloneye]

No upgrade yet by JMA

STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 24 May 2011
<Analyses at 24/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30'(12.5°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°55'(13.9°)
E126°20'(126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°25'(16.4°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[ManilaTC]

Korea has it upgraded to Typhoon...

KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME TY 1102 SONGDA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241800UTC 12.5N 128.4E
MOVEMENT W 9KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 66KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 251800UTC 15.1N 125.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 261800UTC 18.4N 123.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 271800UTC 21.5N 123.5E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[Macrocane]

Wow cycloneye, I'm surprised that it's still a STS for JMA. IMO the previous JTWC forecasts are going to verify and it may reach 115 kt (1 min winds) or even more. This is just my unofficial opinion.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 75 knots

[cycloneye]

The big question=Why does the official agency JMA differ from other forecasting entities that have it as a typhoon?

[phwxenthusiast]

The big question=Why does the official agency JMA differ from other forecasting entities that have it as a typhoon?

10-min wind average??? although i'd be surprised if they didn't upgrade this by 21 UTC...

[ManilaTC]

This is not good. The loops have shown that it has jogged to the West Southwest (265-260 Deg) for the last 6 hours.

Big, big threat to the entire luzon island now.

[P.K.]

The big question=Why does the official agency JMA differ from other forecasting entities that have it as a typhoon?

Just a difference of opinion between the various agencies really as well as differing wind averages.

Well the CWB still has a STS at 18Z although the CMA has a typhoon. PAGASA and the HKO don't appear to have upgraded yet but I don't see any 18Z update from them so far so those were both at 12Z.

Edit - The latest PAGASA position on Twitter still has it as a STS at 18Z.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 18:00z warning=75kts,moving West

Moving west at 275 degrees.

WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.5N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.6N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.3N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 32.2N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 128.1E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
//
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

24/2032 UTC 12.3N 128.3E T5.0/5.0 SONGDA -- West Pacific

90 knots (1-min)

[ManilaTC]

TXPN24 KNES 242112
SIMWIR

A. 04W (SONGDA)

B. 24/2032Z

C. 12.3N

D. 128.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS... LG EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR DT=5.0.
MET=4.5 WITH PT=5.0. FT IS BASED ON PT. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN
30 NM (56 KM).

[oaba09]

Still a Tropical Storm per the latest update from PAGASA...



Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "CHEDENG" (SONGDA)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Wednesday, 25 May 2011 Tropical Storm "CHEDENG" has slowed down and maintained its intensity.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 365 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar

Coordinates: 12.2°N, 128.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 115 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 145 kph

Movement: West Northwest at 13 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Thursday morning:
160 km East of Virac, Catanduanes
Friday morning:
120 km Southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Saturday morning:
40 km Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan



Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS #
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Catanduanes
Sorsogon
Albay
Camarines Sur
Camarines Norte
Samar Provinces

Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
Marinduquer
Masbate
Burias Island
Ticao Island
Southern Quezon
Polilo Island
Biliran Island