Global model runs discussion

[Dean4Storms]

The time for this development keeps getting pushed back as well. GFS on long range crack!

[cycloneye]

Dean,as I have been saying in the thread,a model consensus is needed to have a more credible scenario for something to develop.But with only one model showing something and pushing back the time,we may have to wait a little longer for a true development.

[SFLcane]

Might have to wait until the 3rd week of June for next MJO to come around.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Need a few weeks for the shear to relax too before anything can even start to get going.

[flwxwatcher]

If todays 12Z EURO is right ,we might just have to wait until this time next week. It looks like it brings a system across Florida and developes it in the Gulf.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 1052412!!/

[ronjon]

flwx, the low pressure in the GOM from 12Z Euro appears to be derived from a cutoff mid-level low over FL. It's showing a reflection at both the surface and 500 mb. It would have to transition from cold to warm core.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP216.gif

[SETXWXLADY]

Looks like the 12z CMC is showing something too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[vbhoutex]

After attending the Hurricane Seminar given by Impact Weather today here in Houston, ECMWF is my model of choice for this season. It has outperformed all the other models for the last 3 years. Obviously other models are performing well to, but the statistics show that ECMWF has outperformed them all.

[weatherSnoop]

After attending the Hurricane Seminar given by Impact Weather today here in Houston, ECMWF is my model of choice for this season. It has outperformed all the other models for the last 3 years. Obviously other models are performing well to, but the statistics show that ECMWF has outperformed them all.

Oh Boy! Yet another Euro Hugger... at least we are not alone

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS still develops this...Pulls out of the Caribbean toward the Carolinas.

[Huracan Gorges]

Looks like the action soon .........is going to be in the SW Caribbean Sea.........Kepping possible the Main Caribbean Ilands.......A Clouse Eye on the future of this future LOW Pressure........Developing in the SW Courtnner of Caribbean Sea

[Rgv20]

After attending the Hurricane Seminar given by Impact Weather today here in Houston, ECMWF is my model of choice for this season. It has outperformed all the other models for the last 3 years. Obviously other models are performing well to, but the statistics show that ECMWF has outperformed them all.

Oh Boy! Yet another Euro Hugger... at least we are not alone

You can add me to the list....All Hail King Euro!!



Interesting looking at the 500mb heights that the Euro ensembles mostly agree on that cutoff mid-level low.

[ROCK]

After attending the Hurricane Seminar given by Impact Weather today here in Houston, ECMWF is my model of choice for this season. It has outperformed all the other models for the last 3 years. Obviously other models are performing well to, but the statistics show that ECMWF has outperformed them all.

I couldnt go this year because of work but I bet it was interesting. I have been a few times. I know Derek was there.

The EURO does rock and its very hard to go against it....welcome to the EURO camp. You can sit right next to me, Ivan and Wx warrior....

[vbhoutex]

After attending the Hurricane Seminar given by Impact Weather today here in Houston, ECMWF is my model of choice for this season. It has outperformed all the other models for the last 3 years. Obviously other models are performing well to, but the statistics show that ECMWF has outperformed them all.

I couldnt go this year because of work but I bet it was interesting. I have been a few times. I know Derek was there.

The EURO does rock and its very hard to go against it....welcome to the EURO camp. You can sit right next to me, Ivan and Wx warrior....

Sounds good to me. I'll take that seat.
The seminar was very interesting. Also got to meet and talk with Derek, Chris Hebert, Chris Landsea, Phillip Klotzbach and Katdaddy.

[xcool22]

EURO was recently upgraded

[cycloneye]

ECMWF has been upgraded.Let's see how it performs during the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.

Full release:
http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/cms/get/ecmwfnews/276

A new version of the ECMWF forecasting and analysis system, Cycle 37r2, was implemented on 18 May 2011. The new cycle includes both meteorological and technical changes. The main meteorological changes included in this cycle are the use of flow-dependent background errors in the data assimilation, reduced AMSU-A observation errors and improvements to cloud scheme. The changes show clear benefits in terms of objective upper-air scores in the medium range. Temperature and winds are improved throughout the troposphere in the extra-tropics. The improvements to the cloud scheme increase the humidity in the upper troposphere, providing a better fit to observations and improving humidity scores in the extra-tropics in the early forecast range.

For those who missed this post about the ECMWF upgrade,here it is.

[Dean4Storms]

NWS Tallahassee AFD about next week with this upper level feature near FL.


THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE TRICKY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A
PIECE OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LEFT BEHIND AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH FL OR
THE BAHAMAS DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
COMPLETE AGREEMENT AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS ENERGY. LATEST GFS IS
FAVORING A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SE STATES AND AS A
RESULT FORCING MUCH OF THIS ENERGY TO STAY EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA
(AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY). ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN ALLOWING THIS ENERGY TO CUT-OFF AND DRIFT BACK WESTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT COULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA-BREEZE GENERATED CONVECTION. THIS SOLUTION WOULD
ALSO RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL CLOUD-COVER FOR OUR REGION...AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...WILL NOT BITE OFF ON
THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE 00Z
CANADIAN WHICH ISN`T AS STRONG WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AS THE
GFS...BUT ALSO NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW.

[SETXWXLADY]

NWS Tallahassee AFD about next week with this upper level feature near FL.


THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE TRICKY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A
PIECE OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LEFT BEHIND AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH FL OR
THE BAHAMAS DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
COMPLETE AGREEMENT AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS ENERGY. LATEST GFS IS
FAVORING A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SE STATES AND AS A
RESULT FORCING MUCH OF THIS ENERGY TO STAY EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA
(AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY). ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN ALLOWING THIS ENERGY TO CUT-OFF AND DRIFT BACK WESTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT COULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA-BREEZE GENERATED CONVECTION. THIS SOLUTION WOULD
ALSO RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL CLOUD-COVER FOR OUR REGION...AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...WILL NOT BITE OFF ON
THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE 00Z
CANADIAN WHICH ISN`T AS STRONG WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AS THE
GFS...BUT ALSO NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW.

I think this is what the EURO has been showing for at least four runs now to varying degrees of development. The CMC has been showing this off and on as well. I guess we'll see if anything comes of it.

[Dean4Storms]

Will definitely need to keep an eye on it. An old decaying front/trough down there in June can spell trouble.

[SETXWXLADY]

Oh well. Had to be up late anway.
The EURO and CMC still at it. Well the CMC seems to be showing a couple of lows.