Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

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Bunkertor
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#801 Postby Bunkertor » Wed May 25, 2011 9:07 am

70/50

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
Image
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 545 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MARSEILLES ILLINOIS TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CARBONDALE
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 366...

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO STEADILY ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL. A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST MORNING AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AFTER
SUNRISE...WHILE AN INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED/FAST MOVING QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
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#802 Postby Dave » Wed May 25, 2011 9:16 am

IROQUOIS IL-BENTON IN-
911 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN IROQUOIS COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT/1030 AM EDT/...

AT 907 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STOCKLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 1 MILE WEST OF HOOPESTON BY A TRAINED SPOTTER
WITH THIS STORM.


THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SHELDON AROUND 915 AM CDT.
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#803 Postby Dave » Wed May 25, 2011 9:17 am

LVX & ILN are saying ours will be in later this afternoon and tonight.
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#804 Postby Dave » Wed May 25, 2011 9:22 am

Web Briefing from NWS Indianapolis....

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=webbriefing
Last edited by Dave on Wed May 25, 2011 9:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#805 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 25, 2011 9:23 am

Stay safe once again everyone! This is seriously getting tiring now...
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#806 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed May 25, 2011 9:23 am

Almost dead-nuts in the middle of the High Bullseye.


Wonderful.
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#807 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed May 25, 2011 9:25 am

Multimedia briefing from PAH:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=webbriefing


HWO:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
813 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261315-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
813 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...AREA UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK...
...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE AREA IS IN A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...AS
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE 2
OR 3 SEPARATE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.


SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE
STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG
TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 5
PM...AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONSULT
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.
Last edited by WeatherGuesser on Wed May 25, 2011 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#808 Postby Dave » Wed May 25, 2011 9:26 am

Web Briefing from NWS Louisville KY...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=webbriefing

*Note: If you do not have Real Player for the Louisville briefing, click Audio Only...it works using Windows Media Player.
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#809 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 25, 2011 9:27 am

Actual text from 368.

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

INDIANA
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 950 AM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF SOUTH
BEND INDIANA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON INDIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 367...

DISCUSSION...BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN IL WILL PROGRESS
EWD/NEWD INTO IND THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF STRONG MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. 12Z SOUNDING DATA AND
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED
WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY...ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...MEAD
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#810 Postby Dave » Wed May 25, 2011 9:33 am

:uarrow:

Image
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#811 Postby Dave » Wed May 25, 2011 9:46 am

Image
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#812 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed May 25, 2011 9:49 am

Another 'First' as far as I can see.

This is the second sequence of two consecutive High Risk days this year. I don't see that any previous year has had two sets of two High Risk days back to back, let alone a month apart.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_high-risk_days
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Re:

#813 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 25, 2011 9:52 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:Another 'First' as far as I can see.

This is the second sequence of two consecutive High Risk days this year. I don't see that any previous year has had two sets of two High Risk days back to back, let alone a month apart.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_high-risk_days


Technically 1999 did, but that was because there were three consecutive (May 3-4, May 4-5). Also in the older days more High Risk days likely existed that I know nothing about since there was no Internet then, so only old documents would be available. Although one of the most noteworthy dates back then - May 31, 1985 - was definitely not a High Risk day.

It's unlikely we will go back-to-back-to-back though this outbreak at least.
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#814 Postby Bunkertor » Wed May 25, 2011 9:56 am

Made a little "compilation of yesterdays storms. Mods may roll this over to a pic/vid/aftermath thread

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#815 Postby Dave » Wed May 25, 2011 9:57 am

Annie check your PM's. Left a message for you. Ok folks I'm out of here and bound for the EOC, looks like I'll be living there for the rest of today & night. Everyone in or near the severe weather areas today take care and stay safe! Will check in when and if I can.
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Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

#816 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 25, 2011 9:58 am

Tornado watch, probably PDS, coming soon:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SRN MO...WRN AND NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251454Z - 251630Z

STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN WRN
MO AND WRN AR. AS THE STORMS INTENSIFY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY. INITIALLY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT AS THE STORMS MATURE...A TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY. WW ISSUANCE SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING OF STORM INITIATION.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER ERN KS WITH A BROAD
WARM SECTOR EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MO AND ACROSS ALL
OF AR INTO MS AND WRN TN. A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IS ANALYZED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BUT THE CAP SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
AS SFC TEMPS WARM ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHORT-TERM
MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW MO AND
WRN AR AROUND 17Z...SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY ENEWD ACROSS SE MO AND
NE AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
65 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL
PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
INITIALLY...A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST BUT AS
THE STORMS MOVE INTO A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL ALSO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE ERN PART
OF THE MCD AREA BY 18Z TO 21Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
IN THE 350 TO 450 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.


..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35299386 34589353 34409123 35069028 36079002 37329036
38009138 38529290 38219351 37769367 36699348 35299386
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#817 Postby Prairie Girl » Wed May 25, 2011 10:15 am

Web briefing from NWS Central IL: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/?n=webbriefing

Severe weather graphic from NWS St Louis, MO: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lsx
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#818 Postby Annie Oakley » Wed May 25, 2011 10:20 am

I am at work today and cannot help post warnings etc. but I may be able to help some tonight. And I will not be as prolific as I was last night, and hopefully more discerning thanks to good advice here.
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Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

#819 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 25, 2011 10:25 am

HIGH RISK being expanded:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...WRN
KY/TN

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 251518Z - 251615Z

AN EXPANSION OF THE CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK WILL OCCUR WITH THE
UPDATED DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 1630Z FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR
TORNADO OUTBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...AND WRN KY/TN. PLEASE SEE THE
FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1630Z FOR FURTHER
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
SGF...

LAT...LON 36489109 35259121 35009056 35039188 36839223 38329088
39138900 39718639 38988596 38188579 36618695 35618845
36298807 37288738 38418719 38708820 37718992 36489109
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#820 Postby Bunkertor » Wed May 25, 2011 10:26 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...WRN
KY/TN

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 251518Z - 251615Z

Image

AN EXPANSION OF THE CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK WILL OCCUR WITH THE
UPDATED DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 1630Z FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR
TORNADO OUTBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...AND WRN KY/TN. PLEASE SEE THE
FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1630Z FOR FURTHER
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
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