WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[oaba09]

One of the newscasters here asked the head of PAGASA as to why their track is different from the tracks of other agencies like JMA and JTWC...

According to PAGASA, the other agencies only use mathematical models while PAGASA uses mathematical models and other instruments for measurements since the storm is near our country....I'm not sure if PAGASA is being careful or if they are just being arrogant...

[Chacor]

There's not a lot of stuff that can be measured which would change a storm's forecast track, unless PAGASA is doing recon we don't know about and finding a different scenario from what people already know.

[RobWESTPACWX]

One of the newscasters here asked the head of PAGASA as to why their track is different from the tracks of other agencies like JMA and JTWC...

According to PAGASA, the other agencies only use mathematical models while PAGASA uses mathematical models and other instruments for measurements since the storm is near our country....I'm not sure if PAGASA is being careful or if they are just being arrogant...

To be honest and all do respect to Pagasa I think they are just being careful, no one wants to get fired becuase the storm made landfall and they didn't predict it, witch has often happened in the past. Thus they are going to go with the worst case scenario. JTWC often does that too though with long range fcst, they often point it at bases.

But correct, this is a large difference.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Another update from Pat here if any one wants to check it out, disregard the birds in the back ground though. LOL But a lot of great information here and specifically he list the warnings taking place in the PI. Also our own thoughts on the storm.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsJERQx-GAE[/youtube]

On another note I will be getting off the boat tomorrow and will be able to post the updates myself so will be back at it hopefully in 12-15 hours here.

[StormingB81]

Looking at JMA it has made that NW turn lets see if it continue which I believe it will but we shall see..

[dexterlabio]

Hello, everyone!


Thanks God, nothing went wrong along the way going to Baguio City. Except when we passed by a town in the Tarlac province where we encountered strong thunderstorms. All in all, we have generally fine chilly weather in here.

I wasn't surprised to see how Songda has grown now, especially that the shear along the location is below 10 knots and the sst are up to 30 degrees Celsius. And I think the people in Northern Luzon (including me ) won't get beaten up by its intense winds, though the outer bands might still bring wet and windy weather across Luzon including the southwest monsoon to be enhanced by the storm.

The pinhole eye of Songda kinda reminds me of Parma in 2009. It could intensify much as it wants to given that there will be no dry air entrainment and no eyewall replacement cycle in the future. EWRC can be the issue in here because its eye is so small that the strong eyewall may contract into it and collapse the eye, thus weakening it a bit.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Glad to see you had a safe trip Dexter, and that your back before the bulk of the outer rain bands start to effect you there.

[oaba09]

Hello, everyone!


Thanks God, nothing went wrong along the way going to Baguio City. Except when we passed by a town in the Tarlac province where we encountered strong thunderstorms. All in all, we have generally fine chilly weather in here.

I wasn't surprised to see how Songda has grown now, especially that the shear along the location is below 10 knots and the sst are up to 30 degrees Celsius. And I think the people in Northern Luzon (including me ) won't get beaten up by its intense winds, though the outer bands might still bring wet and windy weather across Luzon including the southwest monsoon to be enhanced by the storm.

The pinhole eye of Songda kinda reminds me of Parma in 2009. It could intensify much as it wants to given that there will be no dry air entrainment and no eyewall replacement cycle in the future. EWRC can be the issue in here because its eye is so small that the strong eyewall may contract into it and collapse the eye, thus weakening it a bit.

Yup, the biggest threat to Luzon right now is the outer bands.;..

[dexterlabio]

Well Rob, we are still here in Baguio. We're gonna stay here until tomorrow and hopefully, we'll be able to return safe by the afternoon. I'm currently renting a computer here in SM Baguio to hear the latest news on the storm. I was worried in our travel going here because I knew yesterday that Songda was heading westward, what a relief when it finally started a NW turn.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well still glad your in one spot right now, travel in the PI is already tough, never did it in a storm but sure it is no fun.

James, if your still around want to mention if you intend on coming up towards the Kanto plain area I'll be more than happy to help out!

[oaba09]

Currently moving NNW



TY 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 25 May 2011
<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N13°10'(13.2°)
E127°25'(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE370km(200NM)
SW300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E125°35'(125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°25'(22.4°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)

[Chacor]

4nm CPA to Kadena now from JTWC? Wow.

[oaba09]

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 13.1N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.4N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.1N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.7N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 31.6N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 34.0N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 127.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z
AND 261500Z.
//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey Rob I'm still lurking, just waiting and see what's going to pan out regarding Okinawa and the Ryukus. I may well be in Kanto region next month but I'm PM you the details.

Dexter glad you're safely in Baguio. I know exactly what you mean about Parma in 2009. Around 1500 local today Songda had a very similar appearance. Luckily it looks like Songda won't wreak the havoc that Parma did - that damn typhoon almost got me in serious trouble twice...electrocution and flash flooding!!

[oaba09]

I'm going to sleep...I'm more confident w/ the track now compared to last night(at least I can sleep soundly now LOL)...

Songda seems to be moving along the western side of the anticyclone at the moment...Should be a cool and wet weather tomorrow...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ManilaTC]

Now Songda has finally made the turn! Sigh of relief for the folks along Bicol.

Now we have to deal now with the Southwest Monsoon once the storm center gets on a right angle (45 deg) bearing from Manila hehehe

[HURAKAN]

25/1432 UTC 13.5N 127.3E T6.0/6.0 SONGDA -- West Pacifi

115 knots

[RobWESTPACWX]

Any one in Manila have some reports of large storms today? I was looking at the sat loop and it looks like there was some pretty hefty blow ups across much of Luzon. It seemed to be daily heating related enhanced by the afternoon storms. Just curios in Hindcast.

[ManilaTC]

Rob, There was a thunderstorm that occurred in Manila around 2pm this afternoon... Slept through it as it was so cool hehe.