Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

[CrazyC83]

New Tornado Watch, probably PDS, coming out.

[badger70]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...WRN
KY/TN

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 251518Z - 251615Z

Can't say I have ever seen that, but considering a confirmed tornado (Piatt Co., IL) at ~8 AM near my location, I am concerned what this day will bring us.

[CrazyC83]

Surprised it isn't PDS. Probs 80/50, which is borderline but generally they don't put it these days on 50% sig-tor probs.

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ARKANSAS
FAR EASTERN KANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF COLUMBIA
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 367...WW 368...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WITHIN OPEN WARM SECTOR. AMBIENT AIR
MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2500
J/KG...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHEN COUPLED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
200-300 M2/S2...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...MEAD

[CrazyC83]

BTW, Joplin is NOT in the watch but one county away from it. Hopefully initiation is east of Joplin!

[WeatherGuesser]

Record blizzards and snowfall.
Record rainfall in some areas.
Texas wildfires.
Record flooding.
Records for tornadoes being blown away (pun intended)


And it's only May.


I'm not sure I even want to think about Hurricane season which by the way is only a week from now.

[Bunkertor]

Hey Buddies. How about having a separate thread for pics, vids, stats and survey stuff ? It would be way easier than to scroll 40 pages.

[Annie Oakley]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1057 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 1052 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOUISBURG...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

AT 1055 AM CDT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED DAMAGE FRAM A
TORNADO NEAR 69 HIGHWAY IN MIAMI COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELTON...CLEVELAND...BUCYRUS...STILLWELL AND STANLEY

[CrazyC83]

Watch coming shortly. PDS if they agree with the MD.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN-CNTRL KY...NW-NRN TN...FAR SRN
IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 251602Z - 251630Z

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
A PDS TORNADO WATCH IS BEING COORDINATED ATTM.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS FAR SRN IL AHEAD
OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE ERN EDGE OF A CNTRL PLAINS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. VIGOROUS STORMS WILL ALSO INITIATE IN SCNTRL MO AND
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. AS STORM INCREASE
IN COVERAGE...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LINEAR STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A THREAT FOR
WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL BUT STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE SHOULD
BECOME SUPERCELLS CONTAINING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. AS A 50 TO 60
KT LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON...0-3 KM STORM
RELATIVELY HELICITIES WILL INCREASE BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38378830 38509049 38149147 37299192 36199065 35908949
36078785 36348605 36808540 37468578 38108629 38378723
38378830

[CrazyC83]

PDS Tornado Watch 370 now out.

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the probs. Should be very high. UPDATE: 95/80

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF FARMINGTON
MISSOURI TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 367...WW 368...WW 369...

DISCUSSION...AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES --SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACKED-- IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF SUPERCELLS. THE COMBINATION
OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A BROAD...MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-3500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH 50-60
KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2...RESULTING
IN A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...MEAD

[CrazyC83]

Tornado on the ground in the KC area.

KSC091-MOC095-251645-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-110525T1645Z/
JOHNSON KS-JACKSON MO-
1119 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON
COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

AT 1116 AM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMEMT WAS REPORTING A TORNADO ON THE GROUND
NEAR 132ND AND METCALF. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF BELTON...MOVING NORTH
AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEAWOOD...OVERLAND PARK...PRAIRIE VILLAGE...MISSION HILLS...
FAIRWAY...MISSION AND MERRIAM.

THIS WILL IMPACT

I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 67 TO 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9470 3899 9447 3885 9458 3885 9461
3882 9461 3883 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 191DEG 20KT 3885 9465
HAIL <.75IN

$$

[Dave]

Waiting on next set to be issued which will include us. All counties to my W/NW/SW are now under the PDS....sure we will be too soon. 6 counties out of my 11 (district 9) are now in the pds watch area.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 251623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AR...WEST TN...SOUTHEAST
MO...SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SOUTHERN IND...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN MS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS/OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN LA INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

...MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS FORECAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...

A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER KS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. A LARGE BAND OF 70+ KNOT
WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS STRETCH FROM OK/TX INTO IL/KY/TN THIS
MORNING...ACROSS A LARGE/MOIST WARM SECTOR. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXTEND FROM THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN MO/AR
EASTWARD TO EASTERN KY AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN IND. THE RESULT
WILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING LONG-DURATION
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES.

MORNING RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD MOIST
AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY. BROKEN CLOUDS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG OVER A LARGE AREA...ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS EASTWARD LATER TODAY.

TCU AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MO/AR. THE 15Z SGF RAOB SHOWS
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THESE STORMS SHOULD
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT
TORNADOES. ONCE THESE STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED...THEY MAY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS.

FARTHER EAST...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AR/SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY...SPREADING INTO WEST TN AND
SOUTHERN IND. 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 250-400 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH LONG
HODOGRAPHS AND HIGH INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF MULTIPLE
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

DURING THE EVENING...MULTIPLE LINES/CLUSTERS OF INTENSE/SUPERCELL
STORMS AND BOWS MAY BE TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS. GIVEN THE LARGE AREA POTENTIALLY AFFECTED
BY SEVERE STORMS TODAY...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR
A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE
ALSO A PROMINENT CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR THE NOSE OF A STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL
JET...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THIS
AREA...BUT NONETHELESS HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

..HART/GRAMS.. 05/25/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1630Z (12:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

Another PDS Tornado Watch by 1 pm.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF AR...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251652Z - 251815Z

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL
THREAT OF LONG-TRACKED/STRONG TORNADOES. A PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
REQUIRED...MOST LIKELY BY 18Z.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING CU FIELD AND
CLOUD STREETS ACROSS MUCH OF AR DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM FAR SWRN MO INTO NERN TX AS OF 16Z. 12Z WRF-NMM
DEPICTS DISCRETE CELLS EMANATING OUT OF THIS CU FIELD BY 19Z...WITH
RECENT HRRR RUNS FASTER WITH TSTM INITIATION BUT SIMILAR IN
CONVECTIVE MODE. ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO
SUPERCELLS GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER
PROFILER AND VWP DATA...AMIDST A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN A
BROAD AXIS OF A 45-55 KT LLJ...POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/STRONG
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE GREATLY TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011


ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 34279379 35709309 36399217 36538867 36178817 35298827
34278903 33749129 33649269 33759341 34279379

[CrazyC83]

Tornado on the ground in Sedalia.

WFUS53 KEAX 251725
TOREAX
MOC053-159-195-251800-
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0029.110525T1725Z-110525T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN SEDALIA. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEDALIA...SEDALIA MEMORIAL ARPT...CLIFTON CITY AND NELSON.

THIS WILL IMPACT

I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 95.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 9315 3893 9288 3860 9319 3868 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 209DEG 20KT 3869 9323
HAIL <.75IN

$$

HAWBLITZEL

[CrazyC83]

PDS Tornado Watch 371 coming out now.

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 80/70.

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF LITTLE
ROCK ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 367...WW 368...WW
369...WW 370...

DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
HOURS WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS
AR. HERE...AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
2500 J/KG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS COINCIDES WITH A 60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK
AND 40-50 KT LLJ...RESULTING IN VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE BROAD WARM SECTOR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONE OR
MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIAL STRONG TO
VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACKED...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...MEAD

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND...NRN-CNTRL OH...SE LOWER MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 368...

VALID 251726Z - 251900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 368 CONTINUES.

A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OH
THIS AFTERNOON. SE LOWER MI MAY ALSO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT AS A LINE
PROGRESS EWD. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT
WW 368.

A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
IN NERN IND AND SRN LOWER MI ON THE NOSE OF A 45 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. THE LINE IS ON THE NRN END OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 J/KG IN SRN
LOWER MI TO 1500 J/KG IN CNTRL IND. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ESEWD INTO WRN OH ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ORIENTED WNW TO ESE.
THE NORTH WEBSTER WSR-88D VWP CURRENTLY HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 50-55 KT
WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CONTINUED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IN
ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN IND AND WCNTRL OH.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011


ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON 41438256 42078346 42298407 42188446 41938503 41518556
40908603 40508631 40028609 39478455 39198360 40148239
41438256

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 251726
ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-260200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...MAJOR TORNADO AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...MID MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...MID
MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

SURROUNDING THE GREATEST RISK AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM LOUSIANA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES.

THE STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR
YESTERDAY'S TORNADO OUTBREAK IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO
MISSOURI LATER TODAY AND INTO ILLINOIS BY EARLY THURSDAY AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO
NEAR ST LOUIS.

WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL UNDERCUT A BAND OF FAST...COOL...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM
FLOW.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER A LARGE AREA OF
MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
MO...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.

CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LONG-LIVED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE FAST-MOVING AND
POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND THIS
EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND... HAIL...AND
TORNADOES SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HART.. 05/25/2011

$$

[CrazyC83]

Hearing there was significant damage in Sedalia, MO (population 20,000)