WFUS53 KLSX 251942
TORLSX
MOC007-139-163-252030-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0082.110525T1942Z-110525T2030Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
242 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT
* AT 239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF BELLFLOWER...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MONTGOMERY CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING TORNADOES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWLING GREEN...LOUISIANA...NEW HARTFORD...CURRYVILLE...
FRANKFORD...ASHLEY AND ST. CLEMENT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3944 9103 3923 9117 3923 9118 3920 9118
3914 9122 3914 9126 3909 9126 3903 9130
3913 9149 3954 9130
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 214DEG 27KT 3910 9131
$$
GLASS
Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 371...
VALID 251956Z - 252130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 371 CONTINUES.
...THREAT INCREASING FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS WW 371...
INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT PROGRESSED ACROSS SHARP COUNTY AR
HAS RECENTLY SHIFTED INTO SERN MO. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
FORMING SW OF THIS TSTM WITHIN A CONFLUENCE AXIS THAT STRETCHED
TOWARDS TXK. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR IS EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE
TO RAPID SUPERCELL EVOLUTION. MODIFIED 18Z LZK RAOB SUGGESTS MLCAPE
HAS NOW REACHED 3500 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT.
LARGE HODOGRAPHS...STRONG INSTABILITY AND A DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL ALL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...
LAT...LON 33839355 35199245 35859225 36349204 36559172 36569061
36328976 36058976 34699058 33899113 33579155 33519220
33549302 33839355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 371...
VALID 251956Z - 252130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 371 CONTINUES.
...THREAT INCREASING FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS WW 371...
INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT PROGRESSED ACROSS SHARP COUNTY AR
HAS RECENTLY SHIFTED INTO SERN MO. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
FORMING SW OF THIS TSTM WITHIN A CONFLUENCE AXIS THAT STRETCHED
TOWARDS TXK. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR IS EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE
TO RAPID SUPERCELL EVOLUTION. MODIFIED 18Z LZK RAOB SUGGESTS MLCAPE
HAS NOW REACHED 3500 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT.
LARGE HODOGRAPHS...STRONG INSTABILITY AND A DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL ALL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...
LAT...LON 33839355 35199245 35859225 36349204 36559172 36569061
36328976 36058976 34699058 33899113 33579155 33519220
33549302 33839355
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
SPC AC 251939
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MO/NERN AR...SRN
IL/IND...WRN TN/KY...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
SRN AR INTO WRN OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SCNTRL TX TO SRN LOWER MI
AND WRN UPSTATE NY/WRN PA...
...MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS UNDERWAY...
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN TORNADIC SUPERCELL EVOLUTION HAVE MADE A
NWWD ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH RISK ACROSS MO. RADAR AND DIAGNOSTIC DATA
SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK EXTENDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL MO...EWD INTO THE STL
AREA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES TO ACCOUNT FOR NUMEROUS...POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK AND DAMAGING TORNADOES SPREADING ACROSS ERN MO TOWARD
WCNTRL/SRN IL. ADDITIONALLY...CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING
ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SCT-NUMEROUS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE
OVER THIS REGION THEN SPREAD INTO WRN TN/KY BY EARLY EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH...VERY HOT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SCNTRL TX
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S. VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
UPWARD EVOLVING CU LINE ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT THAT MAY WITH TIME
DEVELOP FURTHER INTO SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE
IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO EXTEND HIGHER SEVERE PROBS FOR POSSIBLE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
..DARROW.. 05/25/2011
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MO/NERN AR...SRN
IL/IND...WRN TN/KY...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
SRN AR INTO WRN OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SCNTRL TX TO SRN LOWER MI
AND WRN UPSTATE NY/WRN PA...
...MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS UNDERWAY...
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN TORNADIC SUPERCELL EVOLUTION HAVE MADE A
NWWD ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH RISK ACROSS MO. RADAR AND DIAGNOSTIC DATA
SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK EXTENDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL MO...EWD INTO THE STL
AREA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES TO ACCOUNT FOR NUMEROUS...POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK AND DAMAGING TORNADOES SPREADING ACROSS ERN MO TOWARD
WCNTRL/SRN IL. ADDITIONALLY...CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING
ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SCT-NUMEROUS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE
OVER THIS REGION THEN SPREAD INTO WRN TN/KY BY EARLY EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH...VERY HOT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SCNTRL TX
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S. VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
UPWARD EVOLVING CU LINE ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT THAT MAY WITH TIME
DEVELOP FURTHER INTO SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE
IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO EXTEND HIGHER SEVERE PROBS FOR POSSIBLE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
..DARROW.. 05/25/2011
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Potentially catastrophic tornadoes late this afternoon.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 370...
VALID 252010Z - 252145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 370 CONTINUES.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS SE
MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SUPERCELLS WITH
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
TORNADO WATCH 370.
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS
THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CNTRL MO SWD INTO NRN AR.
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 2500 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. AT MID-LEVELS...A 65
TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS AR WITH THE NOSE
OF THE JET MOVING INTO WRN KY. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE LIFT
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...A 40 TO
55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN AR. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVES NEWD INTO WRN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PERSISTENT
AND DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT TORNADOES.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 37758688 38058841 37939000 37229137 36779165 36509147
36349090 36318951 36328877 36368781 36568726 36958675
37758688
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 370...
VALID 252010Z - 252145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 370 CONTINUES.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS SE
MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SUPERCELLS WITH
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
TORNADO WATCH 370.
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS
THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CNTRL MO SWD INTO NRN AR.
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 2500 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. AT MID-LEVELS...A 65
TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS AR WITH THE NOSE
OF THE JET MOVING INTO WRN KY. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE LIFT
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...A 40 TO
55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN AR. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVES NEWD INTO WRN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PERSISTENT
AND DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT TORNADOES.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 37758688 38058841 37939000 37229137 36779165 36509147
36349090 36318951 36328877 36368781 36568726 36958675
37758688
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Tornado coming into St. Louis it appears.
WFUS53 KLSX 252016
TORLSX
MOC183-189-510-252100-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0090.110525T2016Z-110525T2100Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 313 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR THE INTERSECTION THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATES 44 AND 270.
A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
DANGEROUS STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENTWOOD...CREVE COEUR...LADUE...MAPLEWOOD...RICHMOND HEIGHTS...
CLAYTON...OLIVETTE...UNIVERSITY CITY...ST. LOUIS...OVERLAND...ST.
ANN...HILLSDALE...ST. JOHN...WOODSON TERRACE...BEL-RIDGE...
BRIDGETON...NORMANDY...NORTHWOODS...COOL VALLEY AND BERKELEY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3880 9012 3877 9017 3875 9018 3873 9021
3870 9021 3865 9018 3850 9034 3859 9054
3894 9034 3892 9030 3892 9026 3885 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 211DEG 24KT 3862 9038
$$
BRITT
WFUS53 KLSX 252016
TORLSX
MOC183-189-510-252100-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0090.110525T2016Z-110525T2100Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 313 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR THE INTERSECTION THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATES 44 AND 270.
A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
DANGEROUS STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENTWOOD...CREVE COEUR...LADUE...MAPLEWOOD...RICHMOND HEIGHTS...
CLAYTON...OLIVETTE...UNIVERSITY CITY...ST. LOUIS...OVERLAND...ST.
ANN...HILLSDALE...ST. JOHN...WOODSON TERRACE...BEL-RIDGE...
BRIDGETON...NORMANDY...NORTHWOODS...COOL VALLEY AND BERKELEY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3880 9012 3877 9017 3875 9018 3873 9021
3870 9021 3865 9018 3850 9034 3859 9054
3894 9034 3892 9030 3892 9026 3885 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 211DEG 24KT 3862 9038
$$
BRITT
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summersquall
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 230
- Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 11:23 am
- Location: Jensen Beach FL 27°N 80°W (roughly)
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
http://www.kmov.com/home/Watch-live-str ... 64549.html
kmov - news4
St. Louis live streaming weather coverage.
kmov - news4
St. Louis live streaming weather coverage.
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My posts should NEVER, EVER, EVER be construed as an official forecast as I know virtually nada respecting the finer points of meteorology. Consequently, my posts are obviously NOT endorsed by any professional institution or the good folks at storm2k.org. For official information please refer to the weather gurus at the NHC and NWS.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Farther south. Probs 50/30.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
EASTERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO
ARKANSAS TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LUFKIN TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 368...WW 369...WW
370...WW 371...WW 372...WW 373...
DISCUSSION...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
HOURS ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SWRN AR/NERN TX AS WELL AS FARTHER E
WITHIN OPEN WARM SECTOR. AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON OWING TO A HOT AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY
SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OWING TO AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SWLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EXTENSION OF
LLJ.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...MEAD
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
EASTERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO
ARKANSAS TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LUFKIN TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 368...WW 369...WW
370...WW 371...WW 372...WW 373...
DISCUSSION...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
HOURS ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SWRN AR/NERN TX AS WELL AS FARTHER E
WITHIN OPEN WARM SECTOR. AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON OWING TO A HOT AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY
SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OWING TO AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SWLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EXTENSION OF
LLJ.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...MEAD
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
WWUS53 KLSX 252027
SVSLSX
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
MOC183-189-510-252100-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0090.000000T0000Z-110525T2100Z/
ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
327 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LOUIS CITY...EASTERN
ST. LOUIS AND NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...
AT 320 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN
BRENTWOOD NEAR THE GALLERIA MALL. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY
TIME. THIS DANGEROUS STORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BERKELEY...KINLOCH...JENNINGS...HAZELWOOD...FERGUSON...DELLWOOD...
BELLEFONTAINE NEIGHBORS...FLORISSANT...RIVERVIEW...BLACK JACK...
SPANISH LAKE...WEST ALTON AND PORTAGE DES SIOUX.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3880 9012 3877 9017 3875 9018 3873 9021
3870 9021 3865 9018 3850 9034 3859 9054
3894 9034 3892 9030 3892 9026 3885 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 211DEG 26KT 3873 9032
$$
BRITT
SVSLSX
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
MOC183-189-510-252100-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0090.000000T0000Z-110525T2100Z/
ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
327 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LOUIS CITY...EASTERN
ST. LOUIS AND NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...
AT 320 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN
BRENTWOOD NEAR THE GALLERIA MALL. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY
TIME. THIS DANGEROUS STORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BERKELEY...KINLOCH...JENNINGS...HAZELWOOD...FERGUSON...DELLWOOD...
BELLEFONTAINE NEIGHBORS...FLORISSANT...RIVERVIEW...BLACK JACK...
SPANISH LAKE...WEST ALTON AND PORTAGE DES SIOUX.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3880 9012 3877 9017 3875 9018 3873 9021
3870 9021 3865 9018 3850 9034 3859 9054
3894 9034 3892 9030 3892 9026 3885 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 211DEG 26KT 3873 9032
$$
BRITT
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WeatherGuesser
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Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 370...
VALID 252010Z - 252145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 370 CONTINUES.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS SE
MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SUPERCELLS WITH
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
TORNADO WATCH 370.
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS
THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CNTRL MO SWD INTO NRN AR.
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 2500 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. AT MID-LEVELS...A 65
TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS AR WITH THE NOSE
OF THE JET MOVING INTO WRN KY. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE LIFT
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...A 40 TO
55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN AR. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVES NEWD INTO WRN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PERSISTENT
AND DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT TORNADOES.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...WRN PA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 372...
VALID 252045Z - 252145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 372 CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY IN THE NRN PART OF WW 372 IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN OH AND MAY REACH WRN PA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE A TORNADO THREAT. WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. WW ISSUANCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 372.
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN NRN OH
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL OH WHERE A GRADIENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 2000 J/KG IN CNTRL OH TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG IN NE OH. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT ON
THE CLEVELAND WSR-88D VWP SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AS A LINE GRADUALLY APPROACHES
THE ERN EDGE OF WW 372. HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY ALSO
EXIST ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
LAT...LON 42108093 42058236 42128301 41878392 41478453 40808466
40408394 40268316 40428180 40318027 40727976 41547989
42108093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...WRN PA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 372...
VALID 252045Z - 252145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 372 CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY IN THE NRN PART OF WW 372 IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN OH AND MAY REACH WRN PA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE A TORNADO THREAT. WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. WW ISSUANCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 372.
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN NRN OH
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL OH WHERE A GRADIENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 2000 J/KG IN CNTRL OH TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG IN NE OH. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT ON
THE CLEVELAND WSR-88D VWP SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AS A LINE GRADUALLY APPROACHES
THE ERN EDGE OF WW 372. HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY ALSO
EXIST ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
LAT...LON 42108093 42058236 42128301 41878392 41478453 40808466
40408394 40268316 40428180 40318027 40727976 41547989
42108093
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Timing is everything. Maybe another PDS watch? Hard to say.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 252045Z - 252215Z
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING AND LIKELY REQUIRE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE...SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE TIMING OF SUSTAINED TSTM INITIATION E/S
OF WW/S 370/371 ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL.
SMALL CB/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF
SWRN TN/NRN MS WITHIN A LONG-LIVED BUT DIMINISHING STRATOCU DECK
THAT ARCS FROM WRN TN INTO NRN LA. WITH STRONGER FORCED ASCENT
LIKELY HOLDING WEST OF THIS REGION...APPARENT WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF SIGNAL IN CONVECTION-ALLOWING
HRRR/WRF-NMM GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME
SUSTAINED DESPITE A VERY BUOYANT AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS PER MODIFIED
18Z BNA RAOB. HOWEVER...IF TSTMS DO BECOME SUSTAINED...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...AND
NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.
OTHERWISE...THE EVENTUAL NEWD PROGRESSION OF ONGOING SUPERCELLS OVER
CNTRL AR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36228815 36668808 36578584 35728592 35138612 34538662
34318715 34418789 34548815 36228815
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 252045Z - 252215Z
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING AND LIKELY REQUIRE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE...SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE TIMING OF SUSTAINED TSTM INITIATION E/S
OF WW/S 370/371 ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL.
SMALL CB/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF
SWRN TN/NRN MS WITHIN A LONG-LIVED BUT DIMINISHING STRATOCU DECK
THAT ARCS FROM WRN TN INTO NRN LA. WITH STRONGER FORCED ASCENT
LIKELY HOLDING WEST OF THIS REGION...APPARENT WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF SIGNAL IN CONVECTION-ALLOWING
HRRR/WRF-NMM GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME
SUSTAINED DESPITE A VERY BUOYANT AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS PER MODIFIED
18Z BNA RAOB. HOWEVER...IF TSTMS DO BECOME SUSTAINED...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...AND
NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.
OTHERWISE...THE EVENTUAL NEWD PROGRESSION OF ONGOING SUPERCELLS OVER
CNTRL AR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36228815 36668808 36578584 35728592 35138612 34538662
34318715 34418789 34548815 36228815
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
WWUS53 KPAH 252051
SVSPAH
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
351 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
MOC035-252115-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0132.000000T0000Z-110525T2115Z/
CARTER MO-
351 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
AT 346 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE ROTATING
WALL CLOUD. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUNTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.
DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN GRANDIN.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ELLSINORE.
LAT...LON 3706 9080 3705 9075 3702 9074 3700 9074
3699 9072 3690 9068 3682 9071 3682 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 218DEG 36KT 3690 9079
$$
SVSPAH
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
351 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
MOC035-252115-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0132.000000T0000Z-110525T2115Z/
CARTER MO-
351 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
AT 346 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE ROTATING
WALL CLOUD. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUNTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.
DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN GRANDIN.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ELLSINORE.
LAT...LON 3706 9080 3705 9075 3702 9074 3700 9074
3699 9072 3690 9068 3682 9071 3682 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 218DEG 36KT 3690 9079
$$
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WeatherGuesser
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