#950 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 25, 2011 8:07 pm
Transitioning continues. I would have kept the High Risk personally, if nothing else for a 60H wind threat in the northern areas.
SPC AC 260056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN
OH...CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...EXTREME ERN IL...KY...WRN-MID TN...NRN
MS...EXTREME SERN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE IN CORRIDOR FROM SE
TX TO WRN NY...SRN LOWER MI AND NERN IL....
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS FEATURES HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER NRN CA AND LOWER MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEY
REGION. AS STG RIDGING BETWEEN THEM SHIFTS EWD...COMPACT CYCLONE
EMBEDDED WITHIN ERN TROUGH WILL DO LIKEWISE...ITS CENTER MOVING EWD
ACROSS STL AREA BY END OF PERIOD.
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE...ANALYZED AT 23Z OVER NRN MO...IS FCST TO
MOVE EWD TO ESEWD OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IL BY 26/12Z...WITH
QUASISTATIONARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE NEWD ACROSS SERN ONT AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM LOW SEWD OVER ERN
OZARKS THEN SWWD ACROSS E TX -- IS EXPECTED TO REACH WRN TN...SERN
AR...NRN LA AND S-CENTRAL TX BY END OF PERIOD.
...GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SVR TSTM OUTBREAK...INCLUDING SEVERAL TORNADIC AND POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...PERSISTS FROM SRN AR TO IL ASSOCIATED WITH
PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH LOBE EXTENDING EWD INTO OH
S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. NRN PORTION OF MS VALLEY/IL BAND IS
UNDERGOING QLCS TRANSITION WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING GUST
THREAT...WHILE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/MESOCIRCULATIONS STILL CAN
PRODUCE TORNADOES. ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS WITH QLCS
NEAR AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL IL
ACROSS S-CENTRAL INDIANA TO SWRN OH. MEANWHILE MORE DISCRETE OR
CLUSTERED STORM MODES SHOULD PERSIST FOR LONGER PERIOD OF TIME
FARTHER S. REF SPC WWS 370...371...AND 373-375...AS WELL AS
ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM FCST
GUIDANCE ON THIS EVENT.
SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND EXTEND THROUGH
MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH ONLY GRADUAL SFC COOLING OVER THOSE PORTIONS
OF WARM SECTOR NOT STABILIZED BY EXTENSIVE CONVECTION. RICH
MOISTURE AND HIGH THETAE WILL PERSIST IN PRE-STORM INFLOW
REGION...HELPING TO MAINTAIN EFFECTIVELY SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS IN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
MOREOVER...LLJ IS FCST TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING FROM TN
VALLEY REGION NEWD OVER OH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING 0-1 KM AGL
SHEAR/SRH AND ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS IN SUPPORT OF SIGNIFICANT-SVR
THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2011
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