#483 Postby dexterlabio » Thu May 26, 2011 3:25 am
WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.9N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 25.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 31.1N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 34.5N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 36.9N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 125.4E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 17 NM DIAMETER SYMMETRIC EYE WITH SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM ALL
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A SUPER TYPHOON WITH
130 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD,
AS WELL AS THE 26/04Z UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 135 KNOTS. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE FUELING STY SONGDA AS
IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA. STY 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND TRACKS
TOWARDS OKINAWA, JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY PACKED
THROUGH TAU 48, ALTHOUGH GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE INDICATING SLIGHTLY
FASTER TRACK SPEEDS, WHILE GFS AND EGRR ARE INDICATING WIDER RE-
CURVE TRACKS, AND THUS A LATER CPA WITH OKINAWA, JAPAN. IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS HAVE STARTED TO TREND FURTHER
INLAND OVER MAINLAND HONSHU OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. BASED ON THIS
TREND, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH, BUT REMAINS
INSIDE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER DUE TO KNOWN MODEL ERRORS
IN A RE-CURVE TYPE SCENARIO. STY SONGDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES NORTH AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) NEAR TAU 72. BY TAU 96, STY 04W WILL
COMPLETE ET AS A NEAR STORM FORCE LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z,
270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN
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