WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[ricmood]

The thing is moving WEST!!!!!

[StormingB81]

The thing is moving WEST!!!!!

look to me like it is still NW...could be just a little wobble..they do that from time to time..

[ManilaTC]

Ah yeah, a little wobble to the west... you know guys i dunno but its just me perhaps.
Chedeng/Songda does crazy things during the night. Why did i say that?

Tuesday night - Went west the whole night before going NW in the day
Wednesday night - Went North-Northwest the whole night before going back NW in the day.

Tonight???

[dexterlabio]

^Yes I do think it's still moving NW. You can see the latest satloops here. Well I like using this to track a storm's motion.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html

PAGASA already announced on television that this thing isn't going to touch a single hair in PI. If it goes west then God, more people are gonna bash the agency again for giving another wrong forecast.

[ManilaTC]

I would imagine its ready to go north now, the STR is nearly beside it...

[Infdidoll]

Still hearing people here saying "Oh, it's just going to be a little rain and wind..." and those people probably live in base housing which are built like fortresses. They don't seem to understand that it's a little different experience for everyone depending on your location, the structure you live in, etc. Our building is concrete, but the windows leaked when a small tropical storm went through, we have NO windbreaks around us so we get some of the worst of the wind straight off the ocean, and we live straight on the ocean and have to deal with storm surge, so YES - I am a little concerned even if they are not. Not as much about the storm as I am about the flooding we'll be dealing with. My living room was a mess when Chaba rolled through, last year.

[Infdidoll]

Question: I have always heard that it is worse if a storm hits Okinawa on the West because of the island being in direct path of the NE quadrant. I see the reasoning, but when was the last time it happened? Everyone talks about how Man-Yi was the most damaging typhoon in 50 years. Has a typhoon ever hit from the Western side? How would this storm compare with Man-Yi if it were to hit at forecasted strength from the West?

Man-Yi seems to be the benchmark for storms, here. People here roll their eyes and say, "Oh Man-Yi, that was nothing..." but then again, it seems like the "cool" thing to do to pretend you're a big, bad person who is afraid of nothing and anyone who admits so is a lesser life form.

[StormingB81]

Still hearing people here saying "Oh, it's just going to be a little rain and wind..." and those people probably live in base housing which are built like fortresses. They don't seem to understand that it's a little different experience for everyone depending on your location, the structure you live in, etc. Our building is concrete, but the windows leaked when a small tropical storm went through, we have NO windbreaks around us so we get some of the worst of the wind straight off the ocean, and we live straight on the ocean and have to deal with storm surge, so YES - I am a little concerned even if they are not. Not as much about the storm as I am about the flooding we'll be dealing with. My living room was a mess when Chaba rolled through, last year.

Hope everything goes well for you..and yes I know because I have seen the responces on the kadena facebook page...eve ntalking with some people..and i reply..This isnt your little tropical storm or cat 1 storm..It is on the verge of being a cat 5 storm! it is predicted to hit us with 120mph gusting to 150mph winds that is nothing to just push away..betetr to be prepared and nothing happend then not prepare and it hits dead on like the prediction says and you are not prepared. I remember being 6 and being hit with Hugo and it hit us as a CAT 1 hurricane yet we didnt have water for 5 days! so it is always wise to be prepared!

[StormingB81]

Question: I have always heard that it is worse if a storm hits Okinawa on the West because of the island being in direct path of the NE quadrant. I see the reasoning, but when was the last time it happened? Everyone talks about how Man-Yi was the most damaging typhoon in 50 years. Has a typhoon ever hit from the Western side? How would this storm compare with Man-Yi if it were to hit at forecasted strength from the West?

Man-Yi seems to be the benchmark for storms, here. People here roll their eyes and say, "Oh Man-Yi, that was nothing..." but then again, it seems like the "cool" thing to do to pretend you're a big, bad person who is afraid of nothing and anyone who admits so is a lesser life form.

Super Typhoon Songda 2004 rocked Okinawa...funny..7 years later here comes super typhoon songda...there was super typhoon bart in 99 that cause 5 million dollars of damage to Kadena alone. From Japan Update: September 2004. Super Typhoon Songda was catastrophic, killing 22 plus another 15 still missing, injuring 700, and causing damages of $2.64 billion as it trekked north from Okinawa up the Japanese west coast. It was the worst of 29 storms—19 of them typhoons and seven super typhoons—in 2004, causing damages in excess of $22.5 billion.

[oaba09]

The thing is moving WEST!!!!!

Still moving NW based on the sat loops....

[StormingB81]

Well I am out have to take care of some stuff before bed. See you all tomorrow....

[HURAKAN]

latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

26/0832 UTC 15.9N 125.4E T7.0/7.0 SONGDA -- West Pacific

140 knots

[Infdidoll]

Question: I have always heard that it is worse if a storm hits Okinawa on the West because of the island being in direct path of the NE quadrant. I see the reasoning, but when was the last time it happened? Everyone talks about how Man-Yi was the most damaging typhoon in 50 years. Has a typhoon ever hit from the Western side? How would this storm compare with Man-Yi if it were to hit at forecasted strength from the West?

Man-Yi seems to be the benchmark for storms, here. People here roll their eyes and say, "Oh Man-Yi, that was nothing..." but then again, it seems like the "cool" thing to do to pretend you're a big, bad person who is afraid of nothing and anyone who admits so is a lesser life form.

Super Typhoon Songda 2004 rocked Okinawa...funny..7 years later here comes super typhoon songda...there was super typhoon bart in 99 that cause 5 million dollars of damage to Kadena alone. From Japan Update: September 2004. Super Typhoon Songda was catastrophic, killing 22 plus another 15 still missing, injuring 700, and causing damages of $2.64 billion as it trekked north from Okinawa up the Japanese west coast. It was the worst of 29 storms—19 of them typhoons and seven super typhoons—in 2004, causing damages in excess of $22.5 billion.

But it was JUST a little wind and rain...and the only REAL tragedy was that someone ran out of beer.

I really hate that attitude when we are actually confronted with a significant storm. I feel really bad for those people who just got here and who have never experienced a typhoon and these people degrade them and make them feel stupid for being scared. You see the worst of humanity come out before these storms. That's when you wish you could string them up outside and let them tell you how it was nothing later.

[P.K.]

So she's OFFICIALLY a super typhoon now? Holy crap!

HKO was already calling Songda a super typhoon earlier today but in the traditional sense I guess it's now official

Well the CMA, HKO and JTWC do all have different thresholds for that term.

[ejeraldmc]

Its eye is getting smaller. YOu think its undergoing eyewall replacement cycle?

[HURAKAN]

Its eye is getting smaller. YOu think its undergoing eyewall replacement cycle?

doesn't look like EWRC is occurring right now

[P.K.]

In reference to my last post here is the latest CMA advisory. 65m/s is about as high as you'll ever see in a CMA forecast.

** WTPQ20 BABJ 260900 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY SONGDA 1102 (1102) INITIAL TIME 260900 UTC
00HR 15.9N 125.5E 920HPA 60M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR NW 20KM/H
P+24HR 19.9N 123.7E 910HPA 65M/S
P+48HR 25.3N 125.2E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 31.0N 131.5E 975HPA 30M/S
P+96HR 34.9N 141.2E 995HPA 18M/S=

[Infdidoll]

26/0832 UTC 15.9N 125.4E T7.0/7.0 SONGDA -- West Pacific

140 knots

Wow. Where is that data coming from? Continuing to impress!

[brunota2003]

Beautiful Typhoon, and very, very deadly...regardless of how well built structures are.