WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[cycloneye]

Moving NW as loop shows.

[P.K.]

HKO 110kts:

** WTPQ20 VHHH 261945 ***

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 261800 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA (1102) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 110 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281800 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (128.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC
THREE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (32.9 N)
ONE THREE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (133.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Newest track below, in the DSCN JTWC noted the split on the models in the long term, yet they continue to have the center line SE of Honshu,

then I thought the alps could very well play a role in keeping it along the SE periphery as well. Overall though looks like Fukuota, Osaka and Kyoto could also get hit pretty hard from this, good news is it should rapidly weaken as it hits the westerlies.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just posted my newest video as well, made sure to give storm2k a shout out, I hope it is drawing some readers to this forum.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtNgJ1OmgCo[/youtube]

[Chacor]

Holding out at cat 5 really well. No EWRC yet.

[StormingB81]

So the weather people here are saying that we should expect winds sustained 110mph gusting to 145mph....not much has changed..looks liek this one will not turn and could be a wake up call to alot of people..I talked to a guy last night that was suprised we even had a storm out there headed here..some people still arnt taking notice!

[StormingB81]

Also, I haven;t seen it officially yet but the ysent an email out yesterday saying they were going in TCCOR 2 at 8am today which it is now past 8!

[rdhdstpchld]

So the weather people here are saying that we should expect winds sustained 110mph gusting to 145mph....not much has changed..looks liek this one will not turn and could be a wake up call to alot of people..I talked to a guy last night that was suprised we even had a storm out there headed here..some people still arnt taking notice!

I was at Typhoon Motors yesterday (ironic?) and the local lady at the desk said "honto? Really? Typhoon? When?" -- LOL...I showed her the sat photo on my iphone...then I showed her the track...she was not happy.

[cebuboy]

Its even raining here in the Visayas ):

[Infdidoll]

I was just at the Foster commissary about an hour ago...never seen it that packed that early in the morning. It cracks me up how when you look at Kadena's Facebook page and others, people are talking all big and bad and making fun of everyone who takes a storm seriously - yet, the commissary is nuts so you know SOME people are. I do have to say, most people were being respectful. Stock there seemed about average so I don't think they were too low on anything, yet. I was fearing going in there, but it wasn't so bad. Hearing people talk, everyone seems worried, but calm.

I hope some people learn their lesson from this, too. I think some are acting like Lieutenant Dan facing the storm, when in reality, they are going to be sitting on Facebook all night cowering in a corner somewhere with a blanket over their heads. LOL

[JTE50]

Just back from tornado chasing in the high risk area yesterday in Arkansas/Tennessee and catching up with Songda. Looks like Songda is much stronger and Okinawa is in the crosshairs as I suspected a few days ago here. If Songda passes just to the west of Okinawa it will be a whole lot more wind. All the best to the folks there. Batten down the hatches! Wish I was there with ya.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[StormingB81]

This is interesting JTWC says it will be between 90 and 110 knots...So Cat 2 now instead of cat 3.

[JTE50]

This is interesting JTWC says it will be between 90 and 110 knots...So Cat 2 now instead of cat 3.

If it goes just west of Okinawa and is accelerating you will get more than just the sustained winds.

[phwxenthusiast]

EWR?? it was fun while it lasted

[Chacor]

Not quite yet but it looks like the start of one.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 19.3N 123.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 23.3N 124.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 290600UTC 29.5N 130.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 300600UTC 33.2N 137.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[phwxenthusiast]

hey guys, decided to do one last video for songda... unfortunately i forgot to include the CWB radar image from Taiwan, would've been really helpful outlining the rain bands from Songda...

anyway made a shout out to rob and storm2k as usual!! tell me what you think

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H7lnmFmcGM[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Not to spam the videos so I'll just link it below, but I also put a video out about the same time here for a afternoon update, didnt realize we were both doing it. Great stuff though and a wealth of information!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfxF2w7D-90

[phwxenthusiast]

oops sorry, that was my last anyway...