WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[StormingB81]

It took a jog to the NW. Look like this could be the classic what happends everytime..storm comes to us and turns away...still time for it to do wobble back to the NE we shall see



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[RobWESTPACWX]

Just uploaded my last video likely before landfall in Okinawa, Haft to go to work now, I may be leaving to get out of the storms path here so may not be around, we will see!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9t22v1og_4[/youtube]

[phwxenthusiast]

O wow Pat, really! I knew they had radars, and look holy cow they work! LOL I remember last year when Megi was headed to Aparri people were noting that the radar there looked terrible with peoples cloth hanging off of it. I guess what I'm trying to say is great! Glad to see it released to the public and I hope that is a sign of things to come!

Still a very intense system though as we continue to watch it decrease in intensity, I still think Okinawa is going to get socked by it. Just hope no one decides to stray outside during the high winds.

haha i know! they posted this on their twitter page last night!! they also posted their Subic Radar although it didn't pick up Songda, probably just rains from the monsoon...
http://twitpic.com/5366rd

i do hope they do real time next time not just the entire loop after the storm passes, it'll be much more helpful that way...

anyway any word from typhoon hunter (James)?? i heard he's going to okinawa??

[Chacor]

James is in Miyakojima, if I remember right.

[StormingB81]

SO here is my own thinking for me today...how will today go...well hoe does songda want to wobble..how she wobbles will depends on what we get.

[JTE50]

James is in Miyakojima, if I remember right.

Yes, he is in Miyakojima filming the big surf right now.

[HURAKAN]

Weakening

[StormingB81]

Even with the track moving now some 50 miles to the west instead of 10 miles Kadena still calling for winds sustained about 90 mph and gusting up to 120

[StormingB81]

East of Tawain

[JTE50]

I just got a text message from Typhoonfury on the SE tip of Miyakojima. He reports monstrous waves battering the shoreline.

[StormingB81]

New Warning is out

WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 26.3N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 30.1N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 33.4N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 35.2N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 124.4E.
TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SW OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS
37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

[JTE50]

If JMA and JTWC are correct, the eye should go right over typhoon fury on Miyakojima. There is a spit of land that stick out on the extreme southeast side and that's where he's filming the giant waves which should only get bigger as the day progresses. No doubt we'll have a first hand account from the eye of the first typhoon of the 2011 season.

[Chacor]

Slowly winding down...

WTPQ20 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 22.9N 123.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 28.8N 128.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 300000UTC 33.0N 136.5E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[StormingB81]

(probably going to jinx it here) Looks like Okinawa will dodge a bullet as it seems to be goign more west then first though...I am sure we will atleast see typhoon strength winds here but if it keep drifting west it wont be nearly as bad as first though

[Chacor]

Out of interest, this was not the earliest 100 kt (JMA) typhoon in history; that record belongs to Typhoon Nelson, which reached 100 kt at 1200 UTC on March 24, 1982.

If we look at 105 kt typhoons, the earliest was Typhoon Rammasun, which reached 105 kt at 1200 UTC on May 10, 2008.

[StormingB81]

Out of interest, this was not the earliest 100 kt (JMA) typhoon in history; that record belongs to Typhoon Nelson, which reached 100 kt at 1200 UTC on March 24, 1982.

If we look at 105 kt typhoons, the earliest was Typhoon Rammasun, which reached 105 kt at 1200 UTC on May 10, 2008.

I was wondering that with it being such a strong typhoon..thanks for the info!

[Chacor]

If you're interested in similar typhoon stats using JMA analysis, I highly recommend Digital Typhoon.

[oaba09]

It's definitely weakening now w/c is good for the people on it's path...Still a powerful and deadly system though...

[oaba09]