WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[RobWESTPACWX]

I noticed Kadena was reporting limited cloud cover, makes sense. The storm really is seeing a lot of dry air entrainment going in to it from the SW. The radar has the eye wall all but dissolved.

[WALL-E]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2011 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 26:46:19 N Lon : 126:26:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 963.2mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.0 3.4

Center Temp : -62.0C Cloud Region Temp : -56.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 153km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.4 degrees



According to ADT, Sangda is weakening quickly.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just saw a pk wind at Kadena of 95kt (gusting)

RODN 281329Z 19060G95KT 3200 RA OVC007 23/21 A2872

Also noting pressure looks to be evening off, should start to see some improvements here.

[Infdidoll]

109 mph gust just recorded...My lights keep flickering, but we still have power, amazingly. Praying my front door holds up...sounds like its going to fly open at any second and make our house a mess of flying debris. I can HEAR things flying around outside and all kinds of bangs, clangs, and crashes. I've never experienced anything like this. Okay, I admit it - I'm scared!

[artist]

109 mph gust just recorded...My lights keep flickering, but we still have power, amazingly. Praying my front door holds up...sounds like its going to fly open at any second and make our house a mess of flying debris. I can HEAR things flying around outside and all kinds of bangs, clangs, and crashes. I've never experienced anything like this. Okay, I admit it - I'm scared!

is this your fisrt storm Infdidoll?

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 26.5N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 126.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 30.0N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 32.7N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 34.8N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 27.4N 127.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM WEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z
IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.

60 nm west of Kadena at 1200 UTC.

[Infdidoll]

Had a few brushes with some smaller storms, but this is the first one I've ever gone through by myself with my kids. It got pretty intense here for a little bit. I've been collecting some random obs:

Lost power in kadena heights by gate 2

wind is crazy i can barely see the baseball field across the street. power went out twice and is flickering every so often, and my ears keep popping like im on a plane.

Our fire escape is is half way gone!

I've never seen a glass door flex so much!

I found out my windows are not air tight.. My glass door is flexable and the wind is moving the cars inch by inch.. Craziness.

I just lost my shed. Sorry neighbors

There are fish....actual FISH....in the street on the Sunabe sea wall. O.o

This typhoon demolished my shed and tore down my fence! (Camp Foster). We still have power, though.

My car is swaying fiercely!!! It is now crooked!!! And no I didn't park crooked!!! Scared for my car and the car next to it...

Someone's trampoline and storage shed GONE! The pieces from A storage shed beating my car up. DEFINITELY taking advantage of typhoon Motors storage offer next time a typhoon comes!!!

Saw a.motocycle sliding down the road on Its side... hoping it wasn't any of yours lol

Just watched the transformer next my house blow up. No power by gate 1 Seawall area.

We live right near those industrial power lines and about 5 of them just snapped its pretty insane in Uruma City

A table just slammed into a car in sible manor.. And the wind is actually lifting our car several inches off the ground.. Craziness.

We lost the roof to our shed

went up stairs to vent the bathroom and the window came off in my husbands hands...thus will be a night to remember for sure....

No power here in Jennings; and have pretty much lost my poor fence on both sides. The trees in both yards are pretty much out of the ground.

Power is out at the seawall. Windows are flexing and have me worried. The beach is being blown away. Debris flying everywhere. Can't imagine what it would be like had it not downgraded from a supertyphoon.

lmost every large tree I can see on Kadena/North Terrace is down or severely damaged. This is gonna take some time to clean up afterwards.

Taken from here: https://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase

[Infdidoll]

Many are reporting no power, too many to list. Some are saying their power was just restored. Definitely seems to be dying down out there. The building we live in is REALLY scary during these storms...I thought the front door was going to come flying open it was rattling so loud. It will be interesting to survey the damage come daylight. Sounds like it was pretty bad from those who have been able to check outside.

[artist]

thanks for the update Infdidoll. Glad you are ok. Hope things die down soon there for you.

[artist]

how is your daughter doing Infdidoll?

[Infdidoll]

No problem...Winds are battering the Western side of my house, right now as the the storm moves off to the North. I don't think anyone here can believe what Weather Underground is showing a typhoon equivalent to a Cat 1 storm. Then again, we are a relatively narrow island, here...and the winds don't quite hit and dissipate as they may do in a geographical area where they can hit and weaken rapidly. We had a typhoon come through that was about a category 2 a while back that didn't feel this strong. I'm tired...no idea what the wind analysis equates this to, yet. Will be interesting to look over that data in the morning.

[Infdidoll]

how is your daughter doing Infdidoll?

I made both my kids beds on the kitchen floor. We've got big, picture windows in just about every room. The kitchen is the only room without windows. Figured they would be safest in here. They both fell asleep a while back. I want to stay up until it passes, but I'm fading fast. I was expecting a really weak storm, but sounds like a lot of damage has come out of this one.

[artist]

how is your daughter doing Infdidoll?

I made both my kids beds on the kitchen floor. We've got big, picture windows in just about every room. The kitchen is the only room without windows. Figured they would be safest in here. They both fell asleep a while back. I want to stay up until it passes, but I'm fading fast. I was expecting a really weak storm, but sounds like a lot of damage has come out of this one.

so glad they are doing ok. Ype, the waiting it out can be the worst, Infdidoll. Hopefully soon it will be gone! Hope you can get some sleep yourself soon.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Raw footage of the totally insane rogue waves I saw battering Miyakojima today, the cliffs we were on were about 60ft high:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX-OJOGLwf0

[Infdidoll]

I wish it weren't so dark out there, right now, or I could have some pretty good video of the waves we are getting right behind my house. I've been staying the heck away from those windows, though. The glass is actually bowing...and here I'm wondering about tensile strength, etc. and how much force they can withstand.

Songda is still screaming outside. I need to sleep, but I can't.

Is it just me or did Songda pass MUCH closer to Okinawa than JTWC & JMA's last forecasts predicted?

[RobWESTPACWX]

James, just want to say, your insane, that is all!

Max winds sustained at Kadena reported was around 60kts, there was a pk wind reported of 95kts though. So a little lower than what was forecasted, yet dangerous none the less. Thank you for the reports as well infidoll, great stuff!

[Marburg]

Be safe. Prayers are with everyone there.

I wish it weren't so dark out there, right now, or I could have some pretty good video of the waves we are getting right behind my house. I've been staying the heck away from those windows, though. The glass is actually bowing...and here I'm wondering about tensile strength, etc. and how much force they can withstand.

Songda is still screaming outside. I need to sleep, but I can't.

Is it just me or did Songda pass MUCH closer to Okinawa than JTWC & JMA's last forecasts predicted?

[Infdidoll]

I now fully believe the old theory about storms being more damaging that approach from the Western side of the island. Consider it tried and true. It will be interesting to see all the damage in the morning. For now, I think I'm scraping my kids off the kitchen floor and putting them in my bed. Their dad had 24 hour duty tonight on base, so I'm sure he's going to have plenty of interesting stories when he gets home. I got a little video that I can try to work on tomorrow...and I'm anxious to watch James' when I'm more fully awake and can appreciate it. Going to bed, now! Wonder if Storming lost power...haven't heard much from him. We were SO lucky to be one of the few who kept power the whole storm, despite a few seconds of flickering!

Goodnight all...or good morning or afternoon depending on where you are.

[WALL-E]

I wish it weren't so dark out there, right now, or I could have some pretty good video of the waves we are getting right behind my house. I've been staying the heck away from those windows, though. The glass is actually bowing...and here I'm wondering about tensile strength, etc. and how much force they can withstand.

Songda is still screaming outside. I need to sleep, but I can't.

Is it just me or did Songda pass MUCH closer to Okinawa than JTWC & JMA's last forecasts predicted?

It seems that Sangda's eye wall is very close to Okinawa in JMA's radar animation.
Sangda is still holding CAT.1 intensity ,but it has begun to transform to an extratropical cyclone.

[RobWESTPACWX]

So how is it in Okinawa now, looks like wind has died down alot from the obs.