Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

[AJC3]

Some storms are starting to pop in that area....



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[cycloneye]

Vorticity increasing.



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Low level convergence is up.



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Shear is strong to the north,but less to the south.



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I would not be surprised if invest 93L is tagged in the next couple of days or less.

[Ivanhater]

Euro was more aggressive last night

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Canadian loves it

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Nogaps

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[Javlin]

Looks like something is trying to get motivated.

[HURAKAN]

Marine Weather Discussion:

SW MONSOON FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. IT IS EXPECTED FORM TODAY...DEEPEN TO AROUND 1007 TO 1008 MB AND STAY OFF WESTERN PANAMA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL MIGRATE INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SW OF JAMAICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEPEN MUCH FURTHER GIVEN STRONG SHEAR ALOFT AND THAT SUPPORTING SW FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET also gets into the fray.



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[gatorcane]

It looks like *finally* we may get some good rainfall in South Florida from this low pressure/trough feature as the models are lifting it north towards South Florida.

It is bone dry out there in metro South FL so I hope it comes our way - rainy season should finally fully commence (though dewpoints have not dropped below 70F at the South FL metro terminals since mid last week).

Not expecting anything strong due to the pronounced SW shear models are progging to persist across the Western and NW Carib....(though shear forecasts are not exactly that accurate 5+ days out). We are nearly at the the start of the Atl hurricane season and the SW Caribbean is a favored area for development climatologically speaking for this time of year

NWS Miami snippet:

FOR THE EXTENDED...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WHICH WILL BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS...OF COURSE...WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Brent]

Looking interesting down there...

[cycloneye]

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site ... c_anim.gif

[cycloneye]

72 hour forecast.



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[Andrew92]

I'm back!

Is this what the models have maybe developing next week?

-Andrew92

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Ivanhater]

I'd bet on an invest by Memorial Day

[ronjon]

Dr Jeff Master's sounds bullish about development (May 27th post)

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.

[KyleEverett]

The models keep forecasting the shear to move north over cuba.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 13N75W TO 10.5N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. A LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
BY THE COMPUTER MODELS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PROBABLY ALONG THIS
TROUGH. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF THE TROUGH AXIS
TO AROUND 16N. SW MONSOON FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. IT IS EXPECTED
FORM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...DEEPEN TO AROUND 1007 TO 1008 MB AND
STAY OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL
MIGRATE INTO THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SW OF JAMAICA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEPEN MUCH FURTHER GIVEN STRONG
SHEAR ALOFT AND THAT SUPPORTING SW FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO ENHANCE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Panama Radar. If this turns out to be monsoon origin,it may take it's time to develop,if it does so.

[KyleEverett]

The 00z GFS has some insane fun with this system. I expect this to get more interest tomorrow morning.

EDIT: Brent posted as well.

[Brent]