2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[Shoshana]

We'll take rain in Central TX too- officially it was 100F her but 103 here at our house. And more humid than normal.

[StormClouds63]

From this morning's (5/28/11) forecast discussion (Lake Charles National Weather Service):

LONG TERM...A MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE EURO IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS HIGH AND IF
THAT MODEL COMES TO FRUITION...TEMPS WOULD FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY
MARK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE
COOLER GFS ON THIS FORECAST. IF MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT, WE
COULD BE FORECASTING RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NO RAIN IS IN SIGHT AS A BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKING IN.

[CajunMama]

We've seen this pattern too many times in the last several years, stormclouds63. I really can't remember when we've had a "normal" summer without a drought. What gives?

[Tireman4]

Let me see. Hottest April....May will be hot ( I am not sure top 10 hot), June looks to be really hot for we are dry, parched and the sun reflecting off the dry ground....oh boy....

[vbhoutex]

We hit 100f here at the house today. I think this is the earliest I can remember this happening. I am about to give up on keeping the yard alive, forget green, since the watering really doesn't seem to be doing any good.

[StormClouds63]

Another 1980 summer? I hope not.

[Tireman4]

We hit 100f here at the house today. I think this is the earliest I can remember this happening. I am about to give up on keeping the yard alive, forget green, since the watering really doesn't seem to be doing any good.

Shoot I was done two months ago. Why? I mean I swear. It is dirt and gravel now...sigh

[ROCK]

We hit 100f here at the house today. I think this is the earliest I can remember this happening. I am about to give up on keeping the yard alive, forget green, since the watering really doesn't seem to be doing any good.

I am getting close also...if I dont water every other day my grass is toast but thats better than 150 dollar water bills I have been getting.

[southerngale]

I think it's been several years since we've seen a drought that was even close to this bad, at least in this area. I'd have to research Storm2k to find out exactly what year, but I remember a bad drought in the spring, then a terrible flood in late May or June. Unfortunately, that's often how droughts here are broken. While I don't want to see anyone's house flood, a lot of rain sounds great right about now! I don't remember if the last one was in the worst category like this one is, but it may have been. Unreal how it's so often feast or famine around here. Too much rain or not enough...

[Flyinman]

I do remember the summer of 2000 was pretty bad for Southeast Texas. We had extreme heat (highs close to and over 100 and lows in the upper 80's) with no rain. I lost vegetation that year and so far this year I have not yet. Well just to refresh everyone's memory, Tropical Storm Allison reduced that decficit immensly in 2001. I do hope to get some rain sometime this year but it may be next year before we can see a dent in this drought. I do not remember in my time the drought being in this category and for so long with not much relief in sight.

[Ptarmigan]

I think it's been several years since we've seen a drought that was even close to this bad, at least in this area. I'd have to research Storm2k to find out exactly what year, but I remember a bad drought in the spring, then a terrible flood in late May or June. Unfortunately, that's often how droughts here are broken. While I don't want to see anyone's house flood, a lot of rain sounds great right about now! I don't remember if the last one was in the worst category like this one is, but it may have been. Unreal how it's so often feast or famine around here. Too much rain or not enough...

2006. I know 2006 was dry from January to May, than it gets wet from late May and June.

[Ptarmigan]

I do remember the summer of 2000 was pretty bad for Southeast Texas. We had extreme heat (highs close to and over 100 and lows in the upper 80's) with no rain. I lost vegetation that year and so far this year I have not yet. Well just to refresh everyone's memory, Tropical Storm Allison reduced that decficit immensly in 2001. I do hope to get some rain sometime this year but it may be next year before we can see a dent in this drought. I do not remember in my time the drought being in this category and for so long with not much relief in sight.

Summer of 2000 was hot!

[MGC]

Noooo not another 1980 summer. Hottest day ever for me in the deep south, just off the Gulf....105 degrees. The hottest day with the heat index was in 1998 if I recall with a 131 heat index. It was near 100 and the dew point was like 83....MGC

[StormClouds63]

Pattern looks like the summers of 1980, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2009. Lake Charles NWS Discussion (Sunday, May 29):

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011/

..DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH A HIGH FIRE THREAT DUE TO
WINS AND HEAT...

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AS STORMS ARE
MARCHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. ALL QUIET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND THE REGION CONTINUES UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 90S. THE REAL
QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHEN ARE WE GOING TO HAVE SOME RAINFALL.
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT...THE PATTERN OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS NO CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL. AS A MATTER OF FACT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THAT WILL SHUT ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DOWN.

THEREFORE...WE ARE LOOKING AT PERSISTENCE FCST WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 90S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING
INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE.

[vbhoutex]

In the 41 years I have been in Houston, I don't remember it getting this bad drought wise. I don't remember us going into the exceptional category before, but we have been in the extreme category(2009?). If the current forecast holds we will end May with 0.36" of rain, which is 2x more than last month. Trees are starting to drop leaves again and our monkey grass is all dying. I don't remember that happening before, but that may be senioritis. Yard is becoming too expensive to keep alive. What normally works for watering isn't anymore. Don't want to, but I may stop watering the yard. As stated above no relief in sight either.

[southerngale]

Things just get worse....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
329 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

...HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.SYNOPSIS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NO BREAK IN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH GROUND FUELS...OUTSIDE THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...CONTINUING TO DRY OUT. THE LACK OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE HOT-SIDE AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH. SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACROSS EAST TEXAS
WILL PROVIDE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL JET TRAPS
MOISTURE BENEATH THE CAP. A FEW SPRINKLES SHOWING ON KLCH RADAR
AND CONFIRMED BY KLFT ASOS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER IS
SHALLOW AND LITTLE MORE THAN INSIGNIFICANT SPRINKLES CAN BE EXPECT
UNTIL LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER 20 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN A LITTLE
ABOVE GUIDANCE AS DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND OVERALL LACK OF
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST.

ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND GRADIENT LESSENS.

RUA

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE PARKED OVER THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
MOST OF THE UP-COMING WEEK. THIS WILL AGAIN HELP KEEP ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED SUCH THAT WEAK
IMPULSES ARE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AND TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR AREAS EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO
LAFAYETTE LINE.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EARLY MORNING...SO WILL START OFF THE FORECAST WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. AS IS USUAL IN THIS
SITUATION...WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND INCREASE OVER THE LAND WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL END THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS AT 10 AM...BUT THEN
ADD IT TO THE SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKE ZONES...THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PROCESS WILL THEN REPEAT FOR TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DECREASING OVER LAND.

WINDS WILL ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.

WEAK GRADIENT IS THEN NOTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY MESO-SCALE LAND-SEA INTERACTIONS...WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE DAYTIME.

RUA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE TODAY. VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
PERSIST WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND THE ONGOING
DROUGHT...MAKING FOR DRY GROUND FUELS. LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM INDEX
HAS VALUES OVER 600 ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...EASY IGNITION
OF GRASS AND WOODS TYPE FIRES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH MIN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT...AND NOT AT RED FLAG WARNING...TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. SUSTAINED 20 FOOT
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND 10 TO 15 MPH
ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THEREFORE...IF ANY FIRES CAN
IGNITE...THEY MAY BE HARD TO CONTROL WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.

NO RELIEF FOR THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE SEEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 91 72 91 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 10
KBPT 91 74 90 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
KAEX 94 70 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
KLFT 93 71 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
NEWTON...ORANGE...TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

[srainhoutx]

HGX:

SPRING 2011 (MARCH THROUGH MAY) WILL FINISH AS THE DRIEST SPRING
OF ALL-TIME FOR HOUSTON...AND THE FIRST OR SECOND WARMEST SPRING
ON RECORD AS WELL. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR AN INITIAL BRIEF
SUMMARY.

[Ptarmigan]

Pattern looks like the summers of 1980, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2009. Lake Charles NWS Discussion (Sunday, May 29):

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011/

..DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH A HIGH FIRE THREAT DUE TO
WINS AND HEAT...

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AS STORMS ARE
MARCHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. ALL QUIET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND THE REGION CONTINUES UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 90S. THE REAL
QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHEN ARE WE GOING TO HAVE SOME RAINFALL.
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT...THE PATTERN OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS NO CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL. AS A MATTER OF FACT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THAT WILL SHUT ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DOWN.

THEREFORE...WE ARE LOOKING AT PERSISTENCE FCST WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 90S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING
INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE.

Even in those years, it was wetter, especially 1999. 1999 was a dry year overall, but there were wet months in March and June.

Average Summer (June to August) Temperature For Upper Texas Coast.
1980 84.1 (+1.5)
1995 82.7 (+0.1)
1999 83.5 (+0.9)
2000 83.8 (+1.2)
2009 84.7 (+2.1)
Average Summer Temperature (1895-2010) 82.6
Average Summer Temperature Difference +1.2

Summer (June to August) Rainfall Total For Upper Texas Coast.
1980 5.87 (-7.12)
1995 13.31 (+0.32)
1999 11.47 (-1.52)
2000 5.89 (-7.10)
2009 5.66 (-7.33)
Average Summer Rainfall (1895-2010) 12.99
Average Summer Rainfall Difference -4.55

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp

[StormClouds63]

Thanks Ptarmigan for all the follow-up data. The hottest week I can remember was in 2000 during the week of Labor Day. I think it was over 100 degrees here for several days in a row.

The only positive is that as long as that strong high is in place, we don't have to worry too much about any tropical systems in the WGOM. Of course, that could all change later in the season.

[vbhoutex]

Thanks Ptarmigan for all the follow-up data. The hottest week I can remember was in 2000 during the week of Labor Day. I think it was over 100 degrees here for several days in a row.

The only positive is that as long as that strong high is in place, we don't have to worry too much about any tropical systems in the WGOM. Of course, that could all change later in the season.

during that heat wave(2000 Labor day week) it got up to 112f at our house!! IIRC we also had 2 107's and a 104 in that week.