Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

#81 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon May 30, 2011 11:59 am

A stationary 1007mb low sitting in the Western Caribbean in 72 hours according to the NHC.

ROCK · #82 Postby **ROCK** » Mon May 30, 2011 12:10 pm

Oh I agree..the start of the season is always slow until shear relaxes....NOGAPS finished up the 12zrun....buries it in CA but a piece of energy splits off and heads into SFL....seems plausible..all in all a big mess right now...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

#83 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 30, 2011 12:48 pm

experimental

#84 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon May 30, 2011 1:18 pm

Getting really interesting....concentrated complex right over the 1008mb developing low.

14mph Northerly wind report off the Nicaraguan coast..and has been since 9a.m

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MNBL.html

KWT · #85 Postby **KWT** » Mon May 30, 2011 1:22 pm

Nice little area of convection down there, its in the area that needs watching over the next few days.

#86 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 30, 2011 2:16 pm

NHC, 72 hours

#87 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 30, 2011 2:19 pm

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
12N84W TO THE PANAMA CANAL ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP. THE 1442
ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT NORTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT OVER THE S-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONGER WINDS...SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO 8 TO 10 FT BY TUE.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD
INITIALLY BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR SAN ANDRES AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY ALONG 80W TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MARINE
INTERESTS OVER THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
SINCE ITS POTENTIAL FORMATION COINCIDES WITH THE BEGINNING OF
THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON AND OVER A REGION THAT IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING
THE MONTH OF JUNE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W S OF 13N WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
W THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT REACHING NEAR 68W TUE MORNING...AND NEAR 72W WED
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY
WINDS.

#88 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 30, 2011 2:26 pm

Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/SKSP.html

Pressures in San Andres remain pretty steady, 1007-1009 mb

#89 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 30, 2011 3:00 pm

nice pic!

stormhunter7 · #90 Postby **stormhunter7** » Mon May 30, 2011 3:35 pm

lots of moisture down there!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... mtccosvis2

#91 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 30, 2011 4:05 pm

12Z ECMWF @ 192 hours

Weatherfreak000 · #92 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon May 30, 2011 4:19 pm

This is remarkably similar to the start of Arlene. Funny since this season we finally use those names again. Time will tell but with model support this season I can see this becoming something.

#93 Postby **Rgv20** » Mon May 30, 2011 4:57 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/SKSP.html

Pressures in San Andres remain pretty steady, 1007-1009 mb

Down to 1006mb as of 21z 05/30/11

ROCK · #94 Postby **ROCK** » Mon May 30, 2011 5:27 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

out 132hrs 18z GFS......just sitting down there....

ROCK · #95 Postby **ROCK** » Mon May 30, 2011 5:31 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12z CMC not liking it as it was before.....NOGAP 18z out 120hr is a bit agressive...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

remaining loop of the NOGAPS.....looks jacked up to me with 2 lows heading towards SFL then splitting...or sheared out....

#96 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon May 30, 2011 5:35 pm

Ukie blocks the exit to the NE

#97 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon May 30, 2011 5:41 pm

18z GFS

#98 Postby **NDG** » Mon May 30, 2011 5:47 pm

The key vorticity that the models show developing into a close surface low pressure is with the tropical wave that is coming across northern Venezuela and northern Colombia.

ROCK · #99 Postby **ROCK** » Mon May 30, 2011 6:09 pm

Ivan are we posting model runs here on this feature or in the other thread? just checking

BTW- nice to see you back for another season....

sorry I have had a few shiners...

#100 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon May 30, 2011 6:22 pm

ROCK wrote:Ivan are we posting model runs here on this feature or in the other thread? just checking

BTW- nice to see you back for another season.... sorry I have had a few shiners...

Good to see you back Rock! Where is our other partner in crime, Wxwarrior? :lol:

Yeah, this is the thread for the Caribbean system. Taking a look at the Canadian and Euro ensembles, a great deal of them like the solution of getting trapped under the ridge.

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re:

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Who is online