When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

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When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

Poll ended at Thu Mar 31, 2011 7:13 pm

April
1
2%
May
8
13%
June 1-10
12
20%
June 11-20
16
27%
June 21-30
13
22%
July 1-10
5
8%
July 11-20
3
5%
July 21-31
1
2%
August
1
2%
September and Beyond
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 60
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Rainband

Re: When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

#41 Postby Rainband » Mon Apr 18, 2011 6:38 pm

July 1-10
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Re:

#42 Postby Cyclone1 » Fri Apr 22, 2011 7:52 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:So does everyone lose because of Arani? :P

After all, it was the first named storm of the year in the Atlantic Basin... just not the basin we're used to!


Are you guys telling me I missed ANOTHER South Atlantic storm? I've missed so many in the past few years that they're not even rare anymore! Gahhrgh...
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Re: When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

#43 Postby Macrocane » Sun May 29, 2011 4:33 pm

So, the people that chose late May or early June as the date for the first named storm may be right, let's wait and see :wink:
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#44 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon May 30, 2011 7:25 pm

I'm thinking between June 10th and June 15th.....

On a quick side note: After seeing all of that horrible tornado footage though(which really hit me emotionally), it's tough to get in the storm mood this year....


But yes, I'll go with between Jun 10th and June 15th. Maybe a GOF system that spins up off the coast.
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Re:

#45 Postby northjaxpro » Mon May 30, 2011 7:32 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:On a quick side note: After seeing all of that horrible tornado footage though(which really hit me emotionally), it's tough to get in the storm mood this year....




Amen!
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Re: When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

#46 Postby jinftl » Mon May 30, 2011 7:36 pm

From the NHC (link below), from 1966 to 2009, the average date of the 1st named storm in the Atlantic is July 9th, and the average date of the 1st hurricane is August 10th.

Based on that, and with the expectation of an above normal season (and looking at the warmer than normal SST across alot of the basin), I am going with June 21-30 for the first system to form.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml#bac
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Re: When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

#47 Postby dwsqos2 » Tue May 31, 2011 12:54 am

I definitely don't think that there is much potential for early season deep tropical development.

I'm thinking August.
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Re: When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

#48 Postby TYNI » Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:55 pm

As Arlene is now officially declared, 13 people were correct with the timing of the first North Atlantic Basin Storm (21%).

Not bad...
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Re: When will the first named system form in the Atlantic Basin?

#49 Postby StormClouds63 » Tue Jun 28, 2011 11:01 pm

StormClouds63 wrote:June 29


Missed it by 2 days ... :(
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Re: When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

#50 Postby Category 5 » Wed Jun 29, 2011 8:34 am

June 28th, 8pm EDT.

Just a guess.
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Re: When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

#51 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Jun 29, 2011 3:51 pm

StormCloud guessed June 29 (named 8pm edt June 28th) that's only 4 hrs. Wow.

On the other hand AdamFirst guessed last week of June AND BOC or Caribbean as point of origin.

It's a toss up.

Both should buy lottery tickets tonight. :D
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Re: When will the first named system form in the Atlantic Basin?

#52 Postby angelwing » Wed Jun 29, 2011 7:17 pm

angelwing wrote:June 5



Wow, talk about being off...
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#53 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 01, 2011 3:04 pm

Now the question - when will the SECOND name storm form? This would be a new poll question:

July 1 - 10
July 11 - 20
July 21 - 31
August 1 - 10
August 11 - 20
August 21 - 31
September
October or later
No more storms in 2011
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Re:

#54 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2011 3:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Now the question - when will the SECOND name storm form? This would be a new poll question:

July 1 - 10
July 11 - 20
July 21 - 31
August 1 - 10
August 11 - 20
August 21 - 31
September
October or later
No more storms in 2011


You can make a new thread for that new question. :)
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