2011 CONUS Tornado Stats - A Record Setting Pace

[GCANE]

Deadly U.S. tornado outbreak of 226 twisters- is most ever in 24 hour period


May 3, 2011 – BIRMINGHAM, AL

According to the National Weather Service, 226 tornadoes were recorded from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning, and that’s a record for a 24-hour period.

From Wednesday to Friday, 312 tornadoes may have formed.

The previous record for a single weather event was April 3-4, 1974, when 148 twisters were recorded.

Details were published in the preliminary report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

-On Deadline

http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... ast-week/1

[GCANE]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mmary.html


NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 305 tornadoes during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 25 to 8:00 a.m. April 28, 2011.

NWS created a table to provide clearer insight into the number of tornadoes.

Each of the three categories in the table below has different levels of confidence/accuracy.

There were 340 fatalities during the 24-hour-period from 8:00 a.m. April 27 to 8:00 a.m. April 28.

The Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado during the April 2011 event caused at least 65 fatalities.

This tornado had a maximum width of 1.5 miles and a track 80 miles long.

These are the most fatalities from a single tornado in the United States since May 25, 1955, when 80 people were killed in a tornado in southern Kansas with 75 of those deaths in Udall, Kansas.

The deadliest single tornado on record in the United States was the Tri-State tornado (Mo., Ill., Ind.) on March 18, 1925, when 695 died.

Ongoing (preliminary) List of Tornadoes by EF Rating (EF3 to EF5):

EF5: 2
EF4: 11
EF3: 21

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/april_2011 ... titialskip

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Perspective: Deadliest Tornado Year Since 1953
by Jonathan Erdman, Sr. Meteorologist

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather- ... 2011-05-23

Updated: May 23, 2011 4:30 pm ET
First...it was a mid-April three-day outbreak, with tornadoes near the Jackson, Miss. metro, then through Raleigh, N.C.

Then, an awful late April outbreak culminating with almost 250 tornadoes over a 4-day period, including Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Ala.

Now...a destructive weekend of tornadoes including a monster tornado that may have been over one mile-wide slicing through Joplin, Mo.

Let's shed some perspective on this deadly tornadic spring 2011.

Not since the 1950s!

TWC Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes (Find him on Facebook) now says the Joplin, Mo. tornado is the deadliest single U.S. tornado in 64 years, since 181 were killed in Woodward, Okla. on Apr. 9, 1947.

In fact, there have been only 8 tornadoes documented in U.S. history that have claimed more lives than the Joplin, Mo. tornado!

Top 10 deadliest tornadoes

Mar. 18, 1925 (Tri-State Tornado): 695
May 6, 1840 (Natchez, Miss.): 317
May 27, 1896 (St. Louis, Mo.): 255
Apr. 5, 1936 (Tupelo, Miss.): 216
Apr. 6, 1936 (Gainesville, Ga.): 203
Apr. 9, 1947 (Woodward, Okla.): 181
Apr. 24, 1908 (Amite, La., Purvis, Miss.): 143
Jun. 12, 1899 (New Richmond, Wisc.): 117
May 22, 2011 (Joplin, Mo.): 116
Jun. 8, 1953 (Flint, Mich.): 115

According to preliminary stats from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, we're now pushing toward 500 U.S. tornado deaths in 2011. The last year we saw as many as 400 tornado fatalities was 1953 (519 fatalities)!

As you can see in the graph below, there have been only 6 other years since 1875 with over 500 U.S. tornado deaths documented!



We have now had 2 of the top 10 deadliest tornado days in U.S. history this year! Below is the list from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Keep in mind the tally from April 27, 2011 is still preliminary and subject to change.

Top 10 deadliest tornado days

April 27, 2011 (Ala., Tenn., Ga., Miss., Va.): 315
April 3, 1974 ("Super Outbreak"): 307
April 11, 1965 ("Palm Sunday Outbreak"): 260
March 21, 1952: 202
June 8, 1953 (Flint, Mich., etc.): 142
May 11, 1953 (Waco, Tex, etc.): 127
Feb. 21, 1971: 121
May 22, 2011 (Joplin, Mo...Mpls./St. Paul, Minn.): 117
May 25, 1955 (Udall, Kan., etc.): 102
June 9, 1953 (Worcester, Mass.): 90

[brunota2003]

Per the latest, seems the Joplin tornado is now tied with the New Richmond tornado of 1899 for 8th place, at 117 deaths.

I never imagined, in this day and age, that we'd ever again see tornado deaths this high! With today's ingredients, we have the likely chance of seeing another double or triple digit killer before the night is through (maybe even more than one, God forbid!)

[WeatherGuesser]

I never imagined, in this day and age, that we'd ever again see tornado deaths this high!

Why not? Population is a lot higher and in more dense concentrations.

[Macrocane]

Why not? Population is a lot higher and in more dense concentrations.

But people are (or seemed to be) better prepared, the warning systems are better now than decades ago, the meteorology has improved a lot since then, and there are more tools (satellite, radar, infrared, etc).

[brunota2003]

I never imagined, in this day and age, that we'd ever again see tornado deaths this high!

Why not? Population is a lot higher and in more dense concentrations.

Yes, but advancements in forecasting and home construction should of kept the tolls down. The main reason so many people were dying before is that there was virtually no warning prior to the tornado hitting...or no substantial shelter.

[CrazyC83]

I never imagined, in this day and age, that we'd ever again see tornado deaths this high!

Why not? Population is a lot higher and in more dense concentrations.

Yes, but advancements in forecasting and home construction should of kept the tolls down. The main reason so many people were dying before is that there was virtually no warning prior to the tornado hitting...or no substantial shelter.

The latter is still an issue when a violent EF4-5 tornado hits a populated area. In Greensburg and Parkersburg, we were lucky that most of the houses had basements or storm cellars or they would have had similar death tolls. Not so with this year's tornadoes. Most of the other violent tornadoes have had only small areas hit by the winds, most of the rest of the path had EF2-3 damage (which is survivable in a permanent home without a basement with precautions) or they hit very rural areas. Once above EF3, you have to go underground or to a safe room. Bad luck has been the problem.

[GCANE]

Joplin Missouri EF-5 Tornado - May 22, 2011

A large portion of Joplin Missouri was devastated by an EF-5 (greater than 200 mph) tornado.

Latest reports from Saturday 5/28 indicate an estimated 142 fatalities and over 750 injured in the Joplin MO area.

The Joplin tornado is the deadliest since modern recordkeeping began in 1950 and is ranked 8th among the deadliest tornadoes in U.S. history.



http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_summary





McIDAS images of GOES-13 0.63 m visible channel data showed the rapid development of the supercell thunderstorm that produced the deadly tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri (station identifier JLN) on 22 May 2011.

The GOES-13 satellite had been placed into Rapid Scan Operations (RSO), providing images as frequently as every 5-10 minutes.

Very distinct overshooting tops could be seen with this large thunderstorm as it developed in extreme southeastern Kansas and moved eastward ahead of an advancing cold frontal boundary.

According to the National Weather Service Springfield MO damage survey, the Joplin tornado produced EF-5 damage with a path width of 3/4 mile and a path length of 6 miles, and was responsible for 132 deaths and 750 injuries.

A 250-meter resolution MODIS true color Red/Green/Blue (RGB) image from the SSEC MODIS Today site showed the line of thunderstorms developing from western Missouri into extreme southeastern Kansas.





AWIPS images of GOES-13 10.7 m IR channel data with overlays of the Automated Overshooting Tops Detection product (below) flagged a number of overshooting tops as the storm approached Joplin (KJLN).





A comparison of AWIPS images of the GOES-13 10.7 µm IR channel data at 21:25 UTC with overlays of the corresponding Automated Thermal Couplet Detection product and the past hour of SPC storm reports (below) revealed a strong thermal couplet of 12.7º C at that time (about 1 hour and 16 minutes before the Joplin tornado)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/snaap/enhanc ... ced-v.html

— note that the location of the thermal couplet indicator is parallax-corrected, moving it just to the southeast of where the cold/warm thermal couplet is seen on the non-parallax-corrected GOES-13 IR image.

This particular thermal couplet was associated with a west-to-east swath of hail as large as 1.75 inch in diameter that began in far southeastern Kansas at 21:02 UTC, along with a report of wind gusts to 62 mph.

The Joplin tornado began to move into the city around 22:41 UTC (5:41 pm local time).





The Overshooting Tops detection and Thermal Couplet detection products are collaborative efforts between researchers at the NASA Langley Research Center and CIMSS.

The development, generation, and evaluation of these products are part of the GOES-R Proving Ground effort; these products will be operational with data from the ABI instrument on GOES-R.

[GCANE]

A major outbreak of severe weather (SPC storm reports) occurred across much of the southern Great Plains region of the US on 24 May 2011.

One of the ingredients for this severe weather scenario was the approach of a strong jet stream, which was rounding the base of a broad upper level trough located over the Rocky Mountains.

Due to these strong winds, a prominent mountain wave signature was seen on AWIPS images of 4-km resolution GOES-13 6.5 m and 1-km resolution MODIS 6.7 m "water vapor channel" data.

Overlays of the RUC80 model isotachs at the 500 hPa, 400 hPa, 300 hPa, 250 hPa, and Maximum Wind levels showed the magnitude of these jet stream winds.







Strong winds were also found at the surface, and McIDAS images of GOES-13 0.63 m visible channel data showed several large plumes of blowing dust (along with some smoke plumes from a few wildfires) which streamed eastward and northeastward behind the dryline that acted as the focus for the development of the severe thunderstorms.

The haziness seen across the southeastern half of Texas was due to smoke which had been transported northward from fires burning in the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico.





GOES-13 sounder Total Precipitable Water (TPW) derived product images revealed that TPW values in excess of 30 mm or 1.2 inches (yellow color enhancement) began to stream northward from Texas into Oklahoma by 18:00 UTC.

This moisture helped to fuel the development and maintenance of the deep convection across the region.







The 12 UTC rawinsonde report from Norman, Oklahoma revealed a classic "loaded gun" type of profile, which would lead to a very unstable airmass once strong surface heating took place during the morning and early afternoon hours. GOES-13 sounder Lifted Index (LI) derived product images (below) showed LI values of -10 to -13 C (red to violet color enhancement) just ahead of the dryline, where the atmosphere had indeed become very unstable.







Once the severe thunderstorms began to form across western Oklahoma after 18:15 UTC, GOES-13 6.5 m water vapor channel images (below) displayed a pronounced warm/dry signature (orange color enhancement) immediately behind the storms - this could be the signature of a strong and large-scale rear flank downdraft in the wake of the storms.







AWIPS images of 1-km resolution POES AVHRR 0.86 m visible channel and 12.0 m IR channel data at 20:32 UTC (below) revealed distinct overshooting tops on the visible image, with corresponding cloud top IR brightness temperatures as cold as -85C (violet color enhancement). Note that large swaths of rain-cooled ground could be seen on the IR image, which exhibited a lighter gray appearance immediately behind the thunderstorms.

[WeatherGuesser]

^^ Do you realize you have almost 27 MEGabytes in the images in that ONE post? The post above it is nearly another 20 MEGabytes. Wouldn't links do just as well?

Remember that a great many people are on limited bandwidth connections.

[GCANE]

May 29, 2011 – JOPLIN, MO

The United States on Saturday equaled the record for deaths from tornadoes in a single year with 523 killed in 2011, and more than a month still to go in the tornado season, The National Weather Service said.

The confirmation on Saturday of seven more deaths from the Joplin, Missouri tornado brought the number of fatalities pass the number killed in 1953 (519), the deadliest year since record keeping began.

Officials in Joplin said the death count there is almost certain to rise as more missing are confirmed dead, so the annual fatality record is expected to be broken.

Alabama, which was hit by a wave of tornadoes last month, has suffered the most in 2011 with 243 confirmed deaths.

There have been 142 deaths in Missouri from the Joplin tornado last Sunday, followed by 33 deaths in Tennessee, 31 in Mississippi and 24 in North Carolina.

Plains states such as Oklahoma and Kansas in the so-called “Tornado Alley”, and usually hard hit by twisters, suffered only 12 and 3 deaths respectively.

The bulk of the deaths were from the most powerful tornadoes.

So far this year there have been four EF-5 tornadoes, the highest power and intensity rating, and they killed 228 people.

Eleven EF-4 tornadoes killed 157 people.

he tornado season continues until at least the end of June.

-Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/ ... mesticNews

[GCANE]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oHkvWUWVUE&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]


Watch for tornado outbreaks of April 14-16 and April 25-28.

Notice the clouds that spawn from seemingly nowhere during the big outbreaks.

[GCANE]

From Dr. Master's Blog
Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/2011_torna ... ation.html


The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)



Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.



Additional statistics for the year:

The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes.

[WeatherGuesser]

The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

Not only broke the record, but more than doubled it.