Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

[GCANE]

[ronjon]

Way out there but latest 06Z GFS.

06Z GFS

[GCANE]

Strong ascent from high CAPE air and shear should keep convection firing.

This should support continuous latent heating of the upper troposphere which will, down the road, aid in lifting the tropopause.

That in turn should allow an anticyclone to form in a few days over the water and convection.

Bottom line effect will be a drop in shear toward the end of the week as shown in the 108hr GFS shear forecast,

In-coming trop waves, during this period, could aid in boundary layer convergence into this area and IMHO there is a good chance a weak tropical surface low could spin up.

[weatherwindow]

In the immortal words of Michael Buffer..."Uhhhh Let's Get Ready to Rummmmmbbbbbllllllleeeee!!!!"

Good to be back for another season of tracking on S2K!!!

I'd like to see this thing develop into a nice TD or TS and head up our way here in South Florida. My yard is very parched!!!

SFT

good to see you back sfl

[Ivanhater]

JB via twitter


Joe Bastardi

Watch the western Caribbean folks.. as if on cue... the tropics will start to light up this week there

[GCANE]

[cycloneye]

Panama radar.

[Frank2]

Good amount of convection but the area wouldn't survive north of 20N due to strong southwesterly shear...

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters discussion this morning.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.

[GCANE]

Very strong overshooting top at DMAX and now expanding cirrus.

Looking good this morning.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 11&lon=-80

[floridasun78]

so models could be right? having first name systems i notice here miami fl people are not getting ready for season i work at homedepot i see people throw alway hurricane Preparedness Brochures

[cycloneye]

The 12z surface chart has the low north of Panama at 1007 mbs stationary.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Invest soon?

[HURAKAN]

12Z GFS 180 hours

Pretty similar to yesterday's 18Z run. The track is similar to Arlene, 1981.

[Frank2]

Interesting to read Jeff Master's blog - well, hopefully it won't be anything more than needed rain for the islands - it's been a very dry winter down there, though I'll guess and say the shear will remain a little more than forecast - it's been consistently strong over the past weeks...

Frank2

[KWT]

For now that shear is probably helping to keep sparking up the convection whilst the low forms, if the systems stays down south for long enough then as the shear zone lifts the system will have a real shot...

Probably 50-50 for a tropical system to develop, but I DO expect an invest at the very least.

[cycloneye]

Chances for development increasing.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

12z CMC turns more bullish than past two runs.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

UKMET has been very consistent developing this,not like GFS/CMC flip-flopping

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.05.2011



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.0N 80.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.06.2011 13.0N 80.2W WEAK

00UTC 03.06.2011 13.9N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.06.2011 14.6N 78.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.06.2011 15.1N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.06.2011 16.1N 78.7W WEAK STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.06.2011 15.9N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.06.2011 17.1N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.06.2011 17.9N 78.6W MODERATE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.06.2011 18.4N 79.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[ronjon]

12Z NOGAPs similar to UKMET.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2011053112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation