2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[Shoshana]

Our backyard sounds crunchy when I walk across it. I think this summer will kill what little grass we have in the back yard. Right now we are just mowing mostly weeds back there.

I don't even want to think about 1980. I was in Dallas and it was so hot for so long that unless you put blocks of ice in your pool the water was disgustingly warm and not refreshing at all. I had a car with black vinyl interior and a broken a/c. Ouch!

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff:

After months of dry and windy weather a change appears to be in store for the area that could bring some much needed rainfall.

First change has already taken place…the relaxing of the pressure gradient and weakening of the winds across the region. In fact this morning is the first morning in a long while when the winds have been weak enough to allow ground fog to develop. Sub-tropical high pressure building westward over the Gulf in a summer type pattern as finally weakened the gradient. Winds will be driven for the next several days by the afternoon sebreeze front and overnight landbreeze due to the heating and cooling of the land.

With the winds lighter and the seabreeze able to develop now all we need is better moisture and we could be in for some of our more typically afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Mid levels remain very dry and the capping continues to hold over the area, but as the sub-tropical high builds north of the region by late Thursday the mid levels finally cool as a deep easterly flow begins to develop. This flow will gradually moisten the air column and at last the stubborn capping of the last several months will be removed by Saturday. Upper level low is forecast to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico early this weekend and slowly move westward into S TX late in the weekend. Areas on the eastern side of this trough axis will lie within the deep moisture feed with PWS climbing to near 2.0 inches or higher by Sunday across much of the area east of Matagorda Bay. There may also be a few embedded upper air disturbances rotating around the southern side of the central US high pressure cell to help act on this increasing moisture. Also, there is the area of small low pressure off the SC Coast this morning (see NHC statements) which looks to ride the upper level flow into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 2-3 days. Lastly, there is a large amount of deep tropical moisture over the western Caribbean Sea and this may get pulled northward also.

Not ready to get carried away yet with rain chances, but it appears that a decent shot at rainfall is developing for the Sunday-Monday time period as this moisture pours into the region. Negatives continue to be the ongoing drought and feedback processes on the low level air mass. Hopefully the upper low is strong enough to bump/weaken the ridge enough to at least give the seabreeze a fighting chance at producing some convection by Sunday. Based on trends, may need to up/add rain chances to Saturday afternoon and some activity may attempt to surge into the area from the east.

Drought:

Yesterday marked the end of the “spring” season and 2011 will go down as the driest spring ever recorded for the City of Houston (both IAH and Hobby). Drought conditions have continued to worsen south of I-10 over the past several weeks with now every county in SE TX in either extreme or exceptional drought status. Hobby Airport has had 4 straight months with less than an inch of rainfall (a new record). IAH has only received 1.90 inches of rainfall in the last 4 months and Hobby 1.31 inches. Listed below are some of the rainfall departures since October 2010:

Bellville: -18.76
Brenham: -17.67
Columbus: -18.24
Conroe: -19.08
Galveston: -7.28
Freeport: -16.23
Hobby: -15.12
IAH: -17.07
Huntsville: -20.43
Livingston: -20.81
Katy: -16.20
Matagorda: -15.62
Tomball: -22.21
Victoria: -14.91

Wildfires were frequent over the holiday weekend given the strong winds and dry fuels. Several large fires developed over Harris and Walker Counties threatening some structures. Much lighter winds and greater surface moisture should help reduce the wildfire threat this week.

[vbhoutex]

I am hoping 93L comes our way and delivers some rain. However, I am a little concerned that with the pattern change and 93L having several days over the GOM(presuming it holds together and makes it this far west)that we may end up with excessive rainfall. I don't have enough information to predict that yet, but I will be watching that possibility closely. Early thoughts on 93L based on current and expected patterns for this week is that LA has a better chance of a "landfall" than TX.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bevgo]

We need some serious rain here in southern MS too. In Ocean Springs, Gulfport, Biloxi, etc it is soooo dry. We are under a burn ban in Ocean Springs and signs up everywhere saying Drought conditions--conserve water. We got a small amount of rain last week but not nearly enough at my house. My grass is looking bad and I am hearing rumors of a $500.00 fine if caught watering. I am watering my new bushes (just 2) and my tomato plants. I have no intention of loing my tomatos.

Can someone please do a rain dance.

[CajunMama]

The entire gulf coast is suffering from drought conditions. We really need that disturbance to hug the coast as it moves west bring us relief from the heat and dryness.

And our met said expect 100 today. It's already 97 and nws forecasted a high of 96.

Edit to add...at 2:15 my power blinked and i just now had about a 10 minute power outage. It's the hottest day of the year and we're already experiencing outages? Oh i think we may be in for a looooooong summer.

[Flyinman]

I agree with the Low. What are the chances of that or will the High pressure be too strong and keep it in open water?

WOW!! This would be a great scenario for us, provided it is just rain!

http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/7479/storm93.gif

[southerngale]

93L - you traitor

[vbhoutex]

101f here at the house. Record high for today. This is too hot, too early!! Not liking the thought of what this summer may bring.

[Flyinman]

If it is going to be this hot at least let us enjoy the casinos! I like the email from Jeff, but with 93L tracking so far South I wonder what our chances are now. I was not clear if the Low he was referencing was 93L or another predicted Low.

I have just accepted the fact it will rain again in 2012

[vbhoutex]

101f here at the house. Record high for today. This is too hot, too early!! Not liking the thought of what this summer may bring.

Final high was 102.7f.

[PTrackerLA]

101 here today, smashing the record of 98 in 1895...now you know we're in a bad heat wave and drought. Some strong storms developed well north of us tonight but hopefully we can get some sort of rain by Sunday. Amazingly the New Iberia site only about 15 miles away from Lafayette and closer to the gulf hit 103!!

[Rgv20]

The ECMWF Monthly forecast release today puts a wide swath from Victoria to New Orleans of 3 to 4 inches with the bulls-eye being Beaumont with 4 to 5 inches of Rain.

Unfortunately for South Texas it prints out anywhere from 1 to 2.5 inches of Rain for the remainder of June.

[Rgv20]

To put this drought in perspective, Rio Grande City where I live we have averaged 0.18 of Rain a month!!!

[srainhoutx]

E-mail frm Jeff:

High temperature records fell yesterday and it looks like they will fall again today.

High yesterday of 100 at BUSH IAH is the earliest 100 degree day in the history of Houston. The previous record was June 10, 1902 (109 year record). Strong high pressure ridge remains parked just northeast of the region providing subsidence aloft limiting cloud cover resulting in strong surface heating. With the very dry grounds that heat up quickly, see no reason why most sites will not go into the upper 90’s to low 100’s again this afternoon and likely on Saturday also. Very warm weather and drought tend to go hand in hand and the current historic drought in progress is starting to be realized in our record of temperatures.

With the extreme heat by late afternoon, a few isolated thunderstorms may be able to develop mainly east of I-45 similar to yesterday afternoon/evening. These storms will be isolated at best and most locations will not see any rainfall.

Upper ridge attempts to shift a touch north of the region Sunday and Monday and this will allow disturbances on the southern side of the high to rotate westward into SE TX from the central Gulf coast. Given the extreme drought in place will go no greater than 30% for both Sunday and Monday…these rains will likely be scattered so some will see some rain while others will get nothing. Best chances will be near the coast and east of I-45.

Upper ridge builds back into the area Tuesday and that will effectively end rain chances.

Drought:

BUSH IAH has gone 129 days without .5 of an inch of rainfall in a signal day. The previous record was 93 days. Rainfall departures across the region are now averaging 15-23 inches. It is very likely the only weather system strong enough to upset the ongoing drought is a tropical cyclone and given the very large rainfall departures it may require two hits to bring enough rainfall to break the drought. Until this happens we will continue to cook nearly every day with the very dry ground allowing highs to reach the upper 90’s to near 100.


High temperature records for yesterday:

Bush IAH: 100 (old record 97 in 2008)
Hobby: 98 (old record 97 in 2003)
Galveston: 94 (tied record from 1953)
Victoria: 99 (old record 97 in 1938, 1916, 1913)

[horselattitudesfarm]

The high pressure dome is looking for its favorite spot to sit.....Texas!!

[vbhoutex]

The high pressure dome is looking for its favorite spot to sit.....Texas!!

It isn't looking for it. It found it and dropped anchor!!

[Tireman4]

Folks...I swear I do not like the looks of this summer.....very eerie and weird....

[vbhoutex]

Folks...I swear I do not like the looks of this summer.....very eerie and weird....

You are not alone sir, by a long ways. I and quite a few I know feel the same way. I am not talking about just your everyday lay person either. It seems to be across the board.

[Nikki]

Folks...I swear I do not like the looks of this summer.....very eerie and weird....

You are not alone sir, by a long ways. I and quite a few I know feel the same way. I am not talking about just your everyday lay person either. It seems to be across the board.

I am by no means educated in weather, which is why I lurk on the boards to find out what is going on. I too know there is a difference in the weather this summer though. I am beginning to wonder if we will ever see rain again.

[vbhoutex]

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX20110603194700SpecialWeatherStatement20110604130000TX.HGXSPSHGX.4f24108ab1aae73f38b880fefcf97ccd from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 15:53 CDT on 06-03-2011
Effective: 14:47 CDT on 06-03-2011
Expires: 08:00 CDT on 06-04-2011
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:

...HOT WEEKEND ON TAP...

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ARE EXPECTED TO
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MANY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY.
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT
SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN
EMERGENCY...CALL 911.
DO NOT KEEP CHILDREN OR PETS IN CARS WITH WINDOWS ROLLED UP...
EVEN PARTIALLY. TEMPERATURES INSIDE A CAR WITH THE WINDOWS UP CAN
REACH OVER 150 DEGREES QUICKLY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HEAT
STROKE.

Instructions:
Target Area:
Austin
Brazoria
Brazos
Burleson
Chambers
Colorado
Fort Bend
Galveston
Grimes
Harris
Houston
Jackson
Liberty
Madison
Matagorda
Montgomery
Polk
San Jancinto
Trinity
Walker
Waller
Washington
Wharton