Caribbean - Central America Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#8861 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2011 9:01 am

BZSTORM wrote:Good Morning Everyone, hope everyone is well - logging in for the start of hurr season. Its been way way hot dry season from particularly from March - May here in Belize, even the older folk say hottest they remember in a while. Many areas suffering drought, with farmers in cayo and corazol losing livestock due to lack of water and grass for them. Also we've had lots of fires mostly pine ridge and Belize river valley areas, fires worse for all the debris from Hurr Richard still around in the unppopulated areas burning. One morning I woke to smoke everywhere couldn't get a fix on where fire was as smoke out on sea as well as North, South of us was told it wasn't even Belize generated, was from fires in Guatemala. Belize needs rain badly but not heavy storm, ground so dry water would just run off surface causing flooding. And the Kendal bridge is still no closer to completion so if heavy rains the Kendal river will flood and the South will be cut of from the North, not very reasuring for us in the South, as higher ground is inland in the North as a rule. So praying hard that this year no major storms come our way. But I will still prepare as every year packing my house down for the season, I used to do this in July ready for Sept/Oct but after last couple of years with storms coming so early inside Caribbean and close to Belize, now I start in June, so in event of heavy storm I don't have so much stuff to pack and store. Keep safe everyone this season


Welcome back to our thread. Let's see how this new hurricane season will be for you over there.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8862 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2011 9:42 am

Attention Caribbean and Centralamerican folks.Here is the June forecast from CSU (Klotzbach/Gray) and is not look so good for our region.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2011.pdf

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)
1)
61% (average for last century is 42%)


For the island of Puerto Rico, the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the island this year is 50%, 26%, and 8%, respectively.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8863 Postby msbee » Wed Jun 01, 2011 1:31 pm

Image
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8864 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:16 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST WED JUN 1 2011

PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-115-131-012130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0185.110601T1834Z-110601T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-
AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-ANASCO PR-
234 PM AST WED JUN 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADILLA...
AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...MAYAGUEZ AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 232 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THESE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES
THROUGH 5:30 PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1832 6718 1839 6722 1853 6714 1849 6690
1821 6692 1817 6717

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
133 PM AST WED JUN 1 2011

PRC013-081-141-012030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0184.110601T1733Z-110601T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UTUADO PR-LARES PR-ARECIBO PR-
133 PM AST WED JUN 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO...LARES AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 130 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THESE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES
THROUGH 4:30 PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1834 6690 1832 6682 1832 6676 1850 6677
1848 6659 1833 6660 1829 6657 1828 6661
1820 6665 1824 6678 1822 6690

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
100 PM AST WED JUN 1 2011

PRC025-063-077-085-103-012000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0183.110601T1700Z-110601T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-NAGUABO PR-
100 PM AST WED JUN 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...LAS PIEDRAS AND NAGUABO

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 1258 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO NEARLY
STATIONARY. THESE SHOWERS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OR TWO
OF RAIN IN AN HOUR AND CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1821 6613 1830 6606 1830 6595 1825 6586
1830 6581 1818 6566 1820 6581 1812 6592
1822 6597 1812 6606

$$

ROSA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8865 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2011 3:10 pm

:rain: :rain: :rain: :rain: :rain: :rain: :rain:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST WED JUN 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
EAST OF 80W INTO NEXT WEEK. POLAR TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC SOUTH TO THE GREATER ANTILLES OVR THE WEEKEND. BROAD SFC TROF
AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
BASIN OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS PORTRAY A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS OR RATHER UNUSUAL
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OVR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS WITH THE ITCZ ESTABLISHING WELL NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION AND A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GREATER
ANTILLES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BROAD SFC TROF ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A CONVERGENCE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL
AMERICA NORTHEAST THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND TO THE NORTH OF PR. AS
TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AMPLIFIES MODELS RESPOND BY DEVELOPING
A SUBTROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL SFC LOW NORTH OF HISPANIONA ALG
PRE-EXISTING CNVRG BDRY EARLY FRI (12Z GFES) OR SOUTH OF PR (12Z
ECMWF). MODELS THEN SHOW THIS LOW TRACKING SLOWLY EWD ALONG 20N (12Z
GFES) OVR THE WEEKEND DRAGGING A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE AREA AND A
WEAK POLAR FRONT CLOSE TO 20N. THIS SHEARLINE OR REMNANTS OF POLAR
FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTH BY WED AS TROF LIFTS OUT AND
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA. JUST THE
THOUGHTS OF HAVING A FRONT INTERACT WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
SPELLS A LOT OF TROUBLE AND GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FORECASTING A MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT FOR
HISPANIOLA. TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY DETAILS BUT SET UP LOOKS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR A SIG RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH 01/22Z. AFT
01/23Z...MOST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AREAS
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS FROM SFC TO 15 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT ALL WATERS BUT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF TSTMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 85 77 86 / 30 50 30 50
STT 78 86 78 85 / 40 40 30 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8866 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2011 3:22 pm

Here are the final May stats of rainfall in San Juan,Puerto Rico,and as you can see,it has been a very above average month. And for 2011,also has turned above normal,but not reaching the 2010 figures.

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        1.61          1.97 1970   0.15   1.46     0.15
  MONTH TO DATE   10.89                      5.29   5.60    12.52
  SINCE MAR 1     14.96                     11.14   3.82    19.06
  SINCE JAN 1     19.86                     16.46   3.40    31.21
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8867 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2011 8:39 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
928 PM AST WED JUN 1 2011

PRC029-031-087-119-127-020330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0187.110602T0128Z-110602T0330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
928 PM AST WED JUN 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 1130 PM AST

* AT 925 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES
ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST THOUGH 11:30 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1840 6610 1845 6613 1848 6613 1844 6587
1837 6586 1835 6589

$$

OMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8868 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:14 am

Good morning. More rain is forecast for today. We keep watching the SW Caribbean area for posible cyclone formation.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST THU JUN 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL EXTEND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND CREATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...DRIVING A WEAK TROUGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTER MONDAY A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MAY
FORM ANOTHER LOW NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA IS NOW COVERING SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN ARE SHOWING HEAVY SHOWERS THAT CONTINUE
TO GROW...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE CHRISTIANSTED
SOUNDER SHOWED ALMOST 2.3 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE SAN
JUAN SOUNDER HAD OVER 2 INCHES AS OF 02/09Z. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE
NEARLY OVERCAST OVER THE ISLANDS THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL
PROMISES CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...BUT ALSO IN THE WATERS
AROUND THE OTHER ISLANDS AS WELL. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
DIMINISHING TO 1.7 INCHES BY 03/18Z AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE ACTIVITY
TO DIMINISH...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE PRESENT
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...HENCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEARING POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CURRENTLY SUNDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK THE WETTEST AND
TUESDAY`S SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT UPPER
LEVELS AND FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF A NEWLY
FORMED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT WILL AID LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS ARE NOW LEAVING THE LOW
PRESSURE AT LOWER LEVELS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD KEEP COPIOUS MOISTURE NEARBY
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ALL PR AND VI
TAF SITES IN THE MORNING. AFT 02/16Z...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJSJ IN SHRA AND TSRA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM THE SFC TO 15 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MUCH AS BEFORE SO
THAT SEAS WILL HOLD TO NO MORE THAN 5 FEET IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. NEVERTHELESS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE CULEBRINAS REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ACCORDING TO THE
U.S.G.S GAGE AT THE MARGARITA DAM. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THIS IS AN
ERROR OR NOT...BUT WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WARNING FOR ANOTHER 3
HOURS IN CASE THE RIVER HAS HELD UP THESE LAST FOUR HOURS. CONCERNS
FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE FOR LOCALIZED AREAS AROUND PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND MUCH OF THE NEXT RAINS WILL RUN
OFF. WHEN HEAVY RAINS MATERIALIZE...RIVERS IN THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES...AND SOME MAY FLOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 75 / 60 50 40 30
STT 86 76 87 77 / 50 50 30 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8869 Postby Macrocane » Thu Jun 02, 2011 10:24 am

Good morning guys! Here's a summary of May temps and rainfall in San Salvador, the temps were near normal values but the rainfalll was well below normal:

Temperatures
Warmest high: 32.8°C/91.0°F (May 6)
Average high: 30.6°C/87.1°F
Coolest high: 28.6°C/83.5°F (May 13)
Mean: 25.7°C/78.3°F
Warmest low: 23.1°C/73.6°F (May 9)
Average low: 20.7°C/69.3°F
Coolest low: 18.9°C/66.0°F (May 6)

Rainfall
Highest rainfall in 24 hours: 25.0 mm/1 inch (May 27)
Monthly accumulation: 96.5 mm/3.8 inches (The normal rainfall for May is 150 mm/6 inches)

I have made more summaries for other locations in my blog (it's in Spanish):
http://tiempoyclimasv.blogspot.com/2011 ... -2011.html

Later today I will make an entry with May temps in other Central American cities.
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8870 Postby Macrocane » Thu Jun 02, 2011 1:57 pm

Here's a summary of the temperatures registered on May in Central America. Most of the countries had cooler highs than last month, but May was the month with the warmest lows this year (and that's normal). Only Belize has a different behaviour, as BZSTORM said it has been pretty warm and May was the month with the warmest highs this year. Climatology says that in June the highs and lows should diminish, let's hope so.

Belize City
Warmest High: 35.0°C/95°F (May 18)
Average High: 32.2°C/90°F
Coolest High: 31.0°C/88°F (registered several times in the month)
Mean: 29.2°C/84.6°F
Warmest Low: 28°C/82°F (registered several times in the month)
Average Low: 26.2°C/79.2°F
Coolest Low: 22.0°C/72°F (May 6)

Guatemala City
Warmest High: 29°C/84°F (May 15)
Average High: 26.5°C/79.7°F
Coolest High: 24°C/75°F (May 4)
Mean: 21.9°C/71.4°F
Warmest Low: 19.0°C/66°F (May 14, 15 and 17)
Average Low: 17.2°C/63°F
Coolest Low: 15.0°C/59°F (May 8)

Tegucigalpa
Warmest High: 32.0°C/90°F (May 16)
Average High: 29.7°C/85.5°F
Coolest High: 26.0°C/79°F (May 29)
Mean: 24.2°C/75.6°F
Warmest Low: 20.0°C/68°F (registered several times in the month)
Average Low: 18.6°C/65.5°F
Coolest Low: 16.0°C/61°F (May 23)

Managua
Warmest High: 37.0°C/99°F (May 5)
Average High: 34.0°C/93.2°F
Coolest High: 29.0°C/84°F (May 15)
Mean: 29.4°C/84.9°F
Warmest Low: 28.0°C/82°F (May 5)
Average Low: 24.7°C/76.5°
Coolest Low: 23.0°C/73°F (May 16)

San José
Warmest High: 30.0°C/86°F (May 20)
Average High: 27.9°C/82.2°F
Coolest High: 24.0°C/75°F (May 5 and 6)
Mean: 22.9°C/73.2°F
Warmest Low: 20.0°C/68°F (May 8)
Average Low: 17.8°C/64°F
Coolest Low: 15.7°C/60.3°F (May 17)

Panama City
Warmest High: 35.7°C/96.3°F (May 4)
Average High: 32.6°C/90.7°F
Coolest High: 27.1°C/80.8°F (May 13)
Mean: 28.1°C/82.6°F
Warmest Low: 25.6°C/78.1°F (May 5)
Average Low: 23.5°C/74.3°F
Coolest Low: 20.2°C/68.4°F (May 17)
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8871 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:21 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

PRC003-005-011-083-097-099-117-022145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0191.110602T1850Z-110602T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOCA PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON
PR-ANASCO PR-
250 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MOCA...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON AND
ANASCO

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 248 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VER HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD FALLEN ACROSS SECTIONS OF MOCA...ANASCO AND
LAS MARIAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1816 6718 1836 6728 1852 6716 1852 6705
1850 6695 1821 6697

$$

ER
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8872 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:37 pm

More of this in the comming days= :rain: :rain: :rain: :rain: :rain: :rain: :rain:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN ATLC OVR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND BEGIN TO ERODE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED ACROSS THE WEST
CNTRL CARIBBEAN XPCD TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">OUTLOOK FOR
DETAILS ON POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING EVENT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER COORDINATION WITH HPC INTERNATIONAL DESK THIS
AFTERNOON WE CONTINUE TO LEAN ON 00Z/06Z GFS SOLUTION GIVING
EMPHASIS TO INTERACTION OF POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES WITH MOIST TONGUE EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA NORTHEAST
THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO RATHER THAN A
TROUGH FORMING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC XPC A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO MOVE NORTH OF THE ANTILLES AND HELP
TIGHTEN AND DRIVE SOUTH A STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE BDRY VERY NEAR PR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WE PREFER THE
00Z/06Z GFS AND GFES SOLUTIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN MONDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT JSJ/JBQ/JMZ NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SCT/NMRS TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT BUT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 84 77 85 / 30 60 30 70
STT 79 87 79 85 / 30 40 30 70
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8873 Postby msbee » Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:41 pm

From Crown Weather:

Tropical Disturbance In Southwest Caribbean Will Slowly Develop Over The Next Few Days; Colorado State University Continues To Forecast A Very Active Hurricane Season With 16 Named Storms & 9 Hurricanes

Rob Lightbown on June 2, 2011, 6:07 am

Tropical Disturbance In The Southwestern Caribbean: We continue to closely monitor an area of disturbed weather over much of the southwestern Caribbean this morning. Wind shear analysis this morning indicated that wind shear values are starting to decrease in this area and things here will have to be monitored closely. Forecast environmental conditions are still forecast to become favorable for developing starting tomorrow or Saturday at the latest and remain favorable right into next week. In addition, a couple of tropical waves are expected to inject moisture and energy into the southwestern Caribbean over the next 24 to 36 hours and this, I believe, will be the trigger to get a tropical system to start developing.

So, I think as environmental conditions become more conducive to tropical development and the moisture and energy from those tropical waves track into the southwestern Caribbean that we will see the low pressure system that is located near the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica start to strengthen as it slowly drifts northward or north-northeastward over the next couple of days. I still think that this disturbance has a little better than a 50-50 chance of becoming a tropical depression or perhaps even a tropical storm as we head into later this weekend and into next week. As for a potential track, a slow drift to the north is expected over the next couple of days to a position just west of Jamaica by this weekend. Looking ahead to next week, this system is forecast to drift north-northwestward towards and over western and central Cuba and then possibly be pulled northeastward across the Bahamas and into the open Atlantic by late next week into next weekend as a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

Residents and vacationers across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua should be aware that this system will continue to bring heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding right through this weekend and into next week. So, prepare for several days of heavy rain with flash flooding across these areas. It should be noted that this system may bring some much needed rainfall to south Florida as we get into the middle and later parts of next week.
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#8874 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:55 pm

Hydrologic statement. Flooding potential is very high in Puerto Rico.I imagine the same for Haiti,Jamaica and the Dominican Republic.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASES
THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...

AN UNUSUALLY DEEP POLAR TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GREATER ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS
CLOSER TO THE AREA IT WILL HELP SUSTAIN A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY VERY NEAR OR ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO HELP SUSTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ARE BECOMING MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH SATURATED SOILS AND ABOVE
NORMAL STREAM AND RIVER FLOW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAINS OVER THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL
ONLY AGGRAVATE THIS SITUATION. WHILE ALL AREAS ARE AT RISK OF
EXPERIENCING SOME FLOODING AREAS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
ARE AT GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
DUE TO THE PRESENT STATE OF THE SOIL CONDITIONS.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED EVERY 12 HOURS.

$$
ROSA


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - CA=Flooding Potential very high in most of Carib

#8875 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:48 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

PRC003-005-011-083-097-099-117-030000-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0191.000000T0000Z-110603T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOCA PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON PR-
ANASCO PR-
537 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MOCA...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON AND
ANASCO

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES
ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS. AS A RESULT...THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
800 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1816 6718 1836 6728 1852 6716 1852 6705
1850 6695 1821 6697

$$

MARTINEZ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

PRC027-065-071-081-115-131-030045-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0190.000000T0000Z-110603T0045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LARES PR-CAMUY PR-
HATILLO PR-
520 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...LARES...CAMUY AND
HATILLO

* UNTIL 845 PM AST

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL
LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR
FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS. FOR THOSE REASONS THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 845 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6696 1849 6695 1849 6677 1833 6676
1831 6682 1823 6682 1821 6686

$$

FIGUEROA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: Caribbean - CA=Flooding Potential very high in most of Carib

#8876 Postby Macrocane » Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:21 pm

As I've told you before, in June the temperatures cool down, and today some locations registered their coolest temperatures in several weeks:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F) Coolest since May 7.
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F) Coolest since May 8.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.0°C (46.4°F) Coolest since May 8.
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F) Coolest since May 8.
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.4°C (56.1°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.4°C (57.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F) Coolest since May 4.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.2°C (90.0°F) Coolest since April 23.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.4°C (86.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.9°C (69.6°F)
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - CA=Flooding Potential very high in most of Carib

#8877 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 02, 2011 9:24 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

.UPDATE...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD
AND FLOOD WARNING WERE ISSUED FOR MUNICIPALITIES AND RIVER ACROSS
THOSE SECTORS OF THE ISLAND. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT LOW LEVEL
WINDS...DIURNAL HEATING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT BY THE UPCOMING
WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THUS...HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ARE
BECOMING MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH SATURATED SOILS AND
ABOVE NORMAL STREAM AND RIVER FLOW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAINS OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL
ONLY AGGRAVATE THIS SITUATION. WHILE ALL AREAS ARE AT RISK OF
EXPERIENCING SOME FLOODING AREAS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL ARE
AT GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DUE
TO THE PRESENT STATE OF THE SOIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ALL PR AND VI TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. AFT
03/16Z...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ IN SHRA AND TSRA. LLVL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS FROM SFC TO 10 KFT.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - CA=Flooding Potential very high in most of Carib

#8878 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 03, 2011 5:05 am

Good morning. Rain,rain and more rain is going to be the norm for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST FRI JUN 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER LOCALLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...WITH NO CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS IS
THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO DETERIORATE EVEN MORE. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...IS FORECAST TO GET BETTER DEFINED AND ELONGATES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...PROMISE TO BRING VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP ANYTIME SOON BELOW 2.0 INCHES. IN
FACT...GFS MODEL INDICATED PW VALUES COULD GO AS HIGH AS 2.5
INCHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...WILL CREATE THE
PERFECT SET UP FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DUE TO PREVIOUS RAINFALL...SOILS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...ARE VERY SATURATED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ONLY WILL AGGRAVATED THE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...AND
RIVERS WILL REACT QUICKLY TO NEW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. PEOPLE
ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED FOR LATEST ADVISORIES...WATCHES...OR
WARNINGS WHICH CAN BE ISSUE DURING THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS
THIS SITUATION DEVELOPS DURING THE NEXT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PR...THE
USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH 03/10Z...BUT VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. AFT 03/16Z MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR WILL DEVELOP
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 03/22Z DUE TO TSTMS.
ELSEWHERE ONLY BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED IN SHRA. LLVL WINDS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS BELOW 10 KFT...BCMG SW 10-30 KT 10-25 KFT. TIL 03/10Z ISOLD
TOPS N-E OF TSJU ABV 30 KFT OUT TO 100 NM. AFT 03/16Z TOPS 40-50 KFT
OVR PR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...PEOPLE LIVING ALONG OR NEAR RIO CULEBRINAS...RIO GRANDE
DE MANATI...RIO CAMUY...RIO FAJARDO AND RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO
INCLUDING ALL TRIBUTARIES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR AND STAY AWARE OF
RAPID RISES IN THE RIVER LEVELS DURING THE NEXT DAYS AS MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 84 76 / 50 30 70 80
STT 87 78 86 77 / 40 30 70 80
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: Caribbean - CA=Flooding Potential very high in most of Carib

#8879 Postby msbee » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:18 am

from Crown Weather:

Friday’s Update On The Tropical Disturbance In The Southwestern Caribbean:

Broad low pressure is located just south-southwest of Jamaica or about 300 miles or so east of Nicaragua this morning. This low pressure system continues to produce showers and thunderstorms across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean and this convection has cycled up and down in intensity a few times over the past day or two.
Wind shear values have decreased over the past 24 hours across this area and range between 5 and 10 knots just north of the coast of Colombia to 30 to 40 knots near Jamaica. Wind shear is forecast to continue to decrease right through this weekend; therefore, this disturbance is forecast to become better organized this weekend, however, it is very large in size and quite disorganized, so any development into a tropical depression will be very slow to occur.

This morning’s model guidance forecasts a very broad and disorganized low pressure system and forecast very slow development. I do not believe the forecast of the GFS and Canadian model of the energy of this system being handed off well northeast of Puerto Rico next week and I think you will see a more concentrated area of low pressure that will slowly consolidate near or just southwest of Jamaica next week. It should be pointed out that a tropical wave now located just east of the coast of Guyana will track across the southern Caribbean and will inject a surge of moisture by Sunday or Monday and this may be the spark that gets tropical development going. Sea surface temperatures across the central and western Caribbean are averaging about 84°F, which is more than warm enough to support tropical cyclone development.

Studying the current conditions and the latest forecast model guidance, it appears that environmental conditions will be favorable for development of this disturbance right through much of next week. With that said, this is a very broad and disorganized disturbance and these types of systems can take many days to organize and intensify into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. With that said, I do think we will see eventual development into a tropical depression and maybe even a tropical storm next week given that the water temperatures are very warm, the environmental conditions will be favorable and the Madden-Julian Oscillation will be in a upward motion phase across the Caribbean for much of next week.

As for a possible track, I expect this disturbance to remain nearly stationary today through at least Saturday and possibly Sunday. Once we get into next week, I think a slow northward track towards Jamaica and Cuba may be possible. Again, I am not buying into the GFS and Canadian model guidance from this system being handed off well northeast of Puerto Rico.

Finally, residents and vacationers in Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should be aware that heavy rainfall will continue right through this weekend and possibly into next week. Flash flooding and mudslides are a real threat across this area. Flash flood watches are currently posted for the island of Jamaica.
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: Caribbean - CA=Watching invest 94L in Central Caribbean

#8880 Postby Macrocane » Fri Jun 03, 2011 2:09 pm

Interesting excerpt from the latest Atlantic TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N80W...ABOUT 230 NM
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE ENTIRE CYCLONIC SYSTEM HAS
BECOME COMPARATIVELY A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING OVER THE SYSTEM. A LARGE AREA
OF DRY AIR IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CHANCE FOR THIS FEATURE TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HEAVY RAINS STILL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN
SECTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
LOW CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 03/1200 UTC ARE NEARLY ONE INCH FOR SAN JUAN...AND
1.48 INCHES FOR TRINIDAD. IT HAS BEEN RAINING NEARLY ONE INCH
PER DAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND PUERTO RICO...RAIN FELL
FOR MUCH OF IF NOT THE WHOLE DAY YESTERDAY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests