Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

[gatorcane]

The CMC model is incredibly bullish on this system as it makes it into a powerful system in the NW Caribbean. That model seems to build a mid-level ridge to the north of the system for a couple of days then moves it north after that. Fortunately the other models are less bullish with the ecmwf just keeping this as a broad low south of Jamaica.

Lots of convection this evening. Reminds me of something you would see in October:

[GeneratorPower]

Wow. According to NHC we *could* see something after 48 hours or so. I suppose it's time to start paying attention to the tropics again. There's a reason the season starts June 1 and not August 1.

[cycloneye]

Here is a great closeup of the area where the low is,just east of Nicaraguan coast.

[HURAKAN]

a lot of moisture across the Caribbean Sea

[ROCK]

very broad area but looks like its consolidating more towards the islands....really a big mess down there right now....

[ROCK]

upper divergence

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


shear is already abating in the area also

[psdstu]

Can't remember the last time basically the ENTIRE gulf of mexico region needs rain so badly. Currently 97 degrees here as I look out the window at an absolutely parched landscape...

HOPEFULLY somehow this system will make it into the gulf and bring about lots of tropical rain for the entire region. Something has got to give soon right? I too can never remember it so dry in Louisiana.

Yeah..everyone along the Gulf coast needs rain asap. A nice sloppy spread out tropical storm would be nice in the Gulf. 100 degrees officially at Pensacola right now...102 at Tallahassee

It was 105 degrees today in Marianna...........and it would sure be nice to see some rain soon!

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO=Up to 20%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



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[StarmanHDB]

Posted about an hour ago by Dr. Rick Knabb on his Facebook page:
"I'm somewhat concerned about the Caribbean....Probably won't see a depression there in the next couple days, but models forecast the broad surface low to hang out there for the next week or so. Heavy rain & flood potential from Jamaica to Puerto Rico. Eventual formation of a tropical cyclone possible."

[TheBurn]

[GCANE]

15N 80W looks interesting as far as circulation.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 15&lon=-80

[HURAKAN]

swirl alert! lol

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has formed just about over the top of it at 14N 79W.

[JonathanBelles]

There is something on the surface now. This from today's WindSat pass.

[Nimbus]

Thats what I was waiting for Gcane, up till now we have had a system under shear but if a high is building over the area the NHC might decide to call it invest worthy. Luis warned us that it might take as long as a week for this system to develop.

There has been persistent monsoonal convection associated with the broad surface low. They probably want to see a better stacked initial system before committing the resources to an invest. Maybe Friday?

[Hylian Auree]

Woah, the circulation center has become quite distinct over the past few hours @_@

[SouthFloridawx]

Anti-cyclone has formed just about over the top of it at 14N 79W.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

There is a heck of a lot of mid-level shear there too.

[SouthFloridawx]

355
ABNT20 KNHC 021755
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Extratropical94]

Did the NHC somehow screw up their designations and percentages?
The map says No. 1 is in the GOM with 20% and No. 2 is the Caribbean disturbance with 10%.
The TWO text designates them vice versa.

[SouthFloridawx]

Did the NHC somehow screw up their designations and percentages?
The map says No. 1 is in the GOM with 20% and No. 2 is the Caribbean disturbance with 10%.
The TWO text designates them vice versa.

I put the wrong one here originally. I changed it. It was my mistake and now has the correct TWO info.