Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

[Extratropical94]

Did the NHC somehow screw up their designations and percentages?
The map says No. 1 is in the GOM with 20% and No. 2 is the Caribbean disturbance with 10%.
The TWO text designates them vice versa.

I put the wrong one here originally. I changed it. It was my mistake and now has the correct TWO info.

Yes, but the NHC had it wrong as well a few mins ago. Now they changed it.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/at ... 1106021757

[Javlin]

Definitly looking like some low level turning alibiet broad in size has started at 15'N 82'W

[Nimbus]

Guess they will fix the graphic later this afternoon. 20% does that mean we get an invest soon?
I never seem to know which forum to be in active storm or just sayin.

[JonathanBelles]

ASCAT backs up WindSat with an llc, although its disorganized. I expect a convective boost within the next few hours. The main demon to me seems like the mid level shear.

[cycloneye]

The models continue with the back and forth on both intensity and on tracks. That is why I wont post them anymore until there is a real consensus. If others want to post them,good.

[cycloneye]

Here is a great loop,where you can see the surface low and also a mid-level circulation south of Haiti.

[srainhoutx]

The models continue with the back and forth on both intensity and on tracks. That is why I wont post them anymore until there is a real consensus. If others want to post them,good.

UKMET, Euro, CMC, GFS all are in pretty good agreement that a broad low pressure system will slowly move NNW toward the Yucatan. I actually thought today offered the best realistic consensus of the globals so far regarding this disturbance.

[KWT]

That mid level circulation is probably getting a good boost from the TW that is in place there.

Circulation is pretty obvious, going to see how it acts in the next 24hrs.

[tailgater]

Now that the shear has drop off a good bit this system is struggling to produce T-storms, but I guess we'll see if the D-max can jump start her.

[TheBurn]

[MGC]

That little convectionless swirl off the Nicaragua coast looks to be orbiting aroung a broad area of low pressure. Doubt it developes....I'm thinking if anything does form it will be futher east perhaps south of Jamaica in a couple of days. It sometimes takes a while for a broad area to tighten up.....MGC

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro takes it North into the Central Gulf

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[KWT]

That little convectionless swirl off the Nicaragua coast looks to be orbiting aroung a broad area of low pressure. Doubt it developes....I'm thinking if anything does form it will be futher east perhaps south of Jamaica in a couple of days. It sometimes takes a while for a broad area to tighten up.....MGC

9 times out of 10 I find its the little convectionless swirl that ends up being the main feature, the MLC looks good with all the convection but thats prone to going poof and leaving the MLC to die, I'd suspect the LLC will be the main focus to watch as the TW that is sparking the convection heads westwards towards the LLC.

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND JAMAICA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



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[Dean4Storms]

Agree, the LLC or swirl near 14N 81W should be the feature that kicks off something over the weekend once the shear lets up and the TW enhances it with energy.

[MGC]

Unless that little eddy developes some convection to sustain the circulation it should dissipate as it rotates around the broad gyre. Small chance of it to become the dominate CC IMO.....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

Unless that little eddy developes some convection to sustain the circulation it should dissipate as it rotates around the broad gyre. Small chance of it to become the dominate CC IMO.....MGC

It is exactly where the NHC says the Low is sitting.

[Hurricane]

MGC, I don't understand why you're doubting this storm. With all of the model agreement and favorable forecast, I would be watching out.

[Hylian Auree]

MGC, I don't understand why you're doubting this storm. With all of the model agreement and favorable forecast, I would be watching out.

He/She is just pointing out that at this rate the current distinct surface circulation in the broader cyclonic flow is unlikely to become the support or circulation center of the entire thing, even if it were to the develop into something. The system itself still has a good chance at development, however, especially with the lifting shear and good support (ul diffluence, tw energy etc.).