ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:03 pm

Post away about this new invest!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106031840
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011060318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011
AL, 94, 2011060218, , BEST, 0, 150N, 803W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060300, , BEST, 0, 155N, 792W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060306, , BEST, 0, 158N, 783W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060312, , BEST, 0, 160N, 777W, 20, 1008, DB

Discussion about this system that were posted on the thread at Talking Tropics.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=110852&start=0

#2 Postby **Extratropical94** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:07 pm

Finally...
This should put the area to code orange at 8pm imho.

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:08 pm

Latest

#4 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:09 pm

Here we go peeps....Code orange is reasonable

KWT · #5 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:12 pm

Unreal...

I was JUST typing up saying this should be an invest soon and what do you know!

I suspect there is a good shot at getting something from this, not sure if it'll be all that strong mind you but I suspect there is a shot of at least a TD some point next week.

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:12 pm

It's about time

#7 Postby **Extratropical94** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:14 pm

Kinda funny declaring an area INVEST five minutes after issuing the TWO on that area

But as always, they sure have good reasons for it.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:15 pm

All models here.

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:19 pm

Brent wrote:It's about time

Lol but not 6 minutes

Convection is quite impressive at least on the east side.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:20 pm

The 12z CMC has a TD/Weak TS moving thru the Yucatan channel.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

KWT · #11 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:22 pm

CMC not as agressive as it has been in previous runs but its still suggesting a weak system will form which looks a reasonable idea.

x-y-no · #12 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:22 pm

There's a fair amount of energy there if it ever gets its act together and tightens up a bit. If the shear drops and stay low like forecast, we may get something by Monday.

KWT · #13 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:25 pm

Yeah strong convection, as the NHC mention the drier air that is to the west could become an issue eventually but there is alot of moisture in the area the system is in for now.

My feeling is this will be our first player in the 2011 season.

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:37 pm

Latest

#15 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:40 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah strong convection, as the NHC mention the drier air that is to the west could become an issue eventually but there is alot of moisture in the area the system is in for now.

My feeling is this will be our first player in the 2011 season.

Question is where does it go if it develops? Steering currents appear weak.

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:41 pm

here you can see the upper level anticyclone that has developed over the system

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:48 pm

Latest

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:49 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2011060318, , BEST, 0, 161N, 773W, 20, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

#19 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:51 pm

First tropical model plots

Reaches weak TS intensity,according to SHIP

WHXX01 KWBC 031843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC FRI JUN 3 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110603 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110603 1800 110604 0600 110604 1800 110605 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 77.3W 16.7N 77.3W 17.2N 77.7W 17.1N 78.5W
BAMD 16.1N 77.3W 17.0N 76.1W 17.6N 75.1W 18.1N 74.1W
BAMM 16.1N 77.3W 16.8N 76.3W 17.4N 75.9W 17.7N 75.7W
LBAR 16.1N 77.3W 16.9N 76.3W 18.1N 75.6W 19.4N 74.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110605 1800 110606 1800 110607 1800 110608 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 79.4W 16.5N 80.1W 16.6N 80.5W 17.0N 82.1W
BAMD 18.6N 73.0W 19.9N 69.3W 22.8N 62.5W 28.3N 50.8W
BAMM 18.0N 75.9W 19.0N 76.1W 20.2N 75.3W 21.5N 74.3W
LBAR 20.8N 72.1W 23.1N 64.4W 30.7N 53.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 38KTS 32KTS 21KTS
DSHP 34KTS 38KTS 30KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 77.3W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 71DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 80.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Uploaded by imageshack.us

ronjon · #20 Postby **ronjon** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:52 pm

12Z NOGAPs - SW Cuba near Yuc Channel - moderate TS.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2011060312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L- DISCUSSION

ATL: INVEST 94L - MODELS

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L- DISCUSSION

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - MODELS

Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L- DISCUSSION

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - MODELS

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - MODELS

Who is online