ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[Nimbus]

Its still only early June so maybe we don't have to be as concerned. Hope the shear holds up, the heat content is high enough to be problematic.

[gatorcane]

Wonder what the gfdl and hwrf will do with it ? Interesting that the deep bam takes it northeast but gfs,cmc, and nogaps keep it in the Caribbean. In fact there looks to be some ridging that builds into the Bahamas and Florida to keep it in the caribbean for the next several days at least.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS does nothing with 94L, while the Euro, Canadian and UKMET suggest a slowly strengthening low pressure area that drifts NNW toward Western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. We'll see what the Hurricane models suggest when they start running for this feature.

[vbhoutex]

It apppears to meander around as it is developing before it comes into the S GOM. If this scenario holds up and the shear abates I would guess that we will have our first player of the season. I haven't looked much past what is posted here, but I am wondering what the set up in the GOM is going to be once/if it reaches there.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

SHIPS probably aren't to be taken too seriously given they take the system into the NE Atlantic which is seemingly unlikely at the moment.

[KWT]

The key is whether that dry air does end up getting entrained or not into the developing circulation. It does look decent on IR right now it has to be said.

[gatorcane]

The key is whether that dry air does end up getting entrained or not into the developing circulation. It does look decent on IR right now it has to be said.

I do not see a lot of dry air near the system. Here is the WV image. Note the oranges (dry air) are located across the GOM, Florida, and northern Bahamas to the north.

[Macrocane]

Yeah, IMO the air is not dry enough to prevent development, its biggest issue is wind shear but if it diminishes then it could become a TD. Anyway, I want to see more model support before coming to any conclusions.

[cycloneye]

The Disturbance definitely has been organizing in a better fashion throughout the day than in past days,when the upper winds were very strong. If this rate of organization continues in the next 6-12 hours,I would not be surprised to see NHC go to Medium chance (Between 30-50%)

[HURAKAN]

I think it's on its way to become our 1st system.



Latest

[KWT]

gatorcane, its mid level dry air I believe, the type that tends to slip under the radar on those WV charts, the NHC even mentioned it in their last update. Shear actually isn't an issue at the moment with a ULH developing overhead.

Dry air probably is not a game breaker by any means but it'll certainly have a negative impact if that does happen to be entrained into the system.

I'd happily go with 40% right now, it does seem to be steadily improving.

[HURAKAN]

right in the neighborhood

[cycloneye]

For information to the members:

GFDL and HWRF first runs for 94L will be between 7:30 PM-8 PM EDT.

[gatorcane]

SSTs plenty warm enough:

[ronjon]

12Z Euro - weak and into the FL panhandle.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

[flwxwatcher]

Maybe it's just me but isn't the position that is being initialized as 94L now , well North and East of the position initialized in the 12Z models for this system?

[KWT]

These broad systems tend to be a bit of a pain for the models, esp when you have such a broad gyre present.

just a wait and see job now!

[wxman57]

Here's a current sat pic with obs. Ignore the 110kt wind in the Turks/Caicos islands. Broad weak low with 10-15 kt winds. Still a good bit of shear impacting it, as is evident by the wide spread in the BAM models. I agree with the 80% chance of it NOT developing. Something to keep an eye on. If it was to develop, a track to the N to NNE is most likely.

[HURAKAN]

Pre-Arlene in 2005