Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST FRI JUN 3 2011

PRC013-017-027-054-065-071-081-091-115-141-032215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0193.110603T1917Z-110603T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-FLORIDA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-UTUADO PR-LARES PR-
BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI PR-ARECIBO PR-
317 PM AST FRI JUN 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...FLORIDA...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...LARES...
BARCELONETA...CAMUY...HATILLO...MANATI AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 313 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
ACROSS AREAS IN THE ADVISORY AND ONE MORE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
THIS RAINFALL ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST 615 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

LAT...LON 1852 6708 1847 6645 1838 6645 1832 6662
1833 6679 1831 6686 1838 6691 1840 6702

$$

JJA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST FRI JUN 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS PRODUCING A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DIGS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WILL PROMOTE A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS SENDING A DENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. SATELLITE DERIVED TPW AND
GPS MET DATA INDICATED A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BUT REMAINS AROUND 2 INCHES. DESPITE THIS
SMALL DROP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
OVER PUERTO RICO ALLOWED THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AFFECTING MAINLY THE
WESTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OCCURRING EVERY AFTERNOON EACH DAY.


FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROG SOUNDINGS FROM SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL
SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES...VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PW VALUES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND LONG FETCH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROMOTING
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED DURING THE WEEKEND IF THIS SCENARIO
HOLDS.



&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS CONT BUT MTN OBSCURATIONS AND A
FEW PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY FOR MOST PR TAF SITES DUE HEAVY
RAIN IN AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL HAVE
FEWER SHRA AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. LLVL WINDS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS BELOW 10 KFT WITH SW 10-30 KT 10-25 KFT. EXPECT TOPS AFT
03/16Z TOPS 40-50 KFT OVR PR.


&&

.MARINE...A TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 76 85 / 30 70 60 60
STT 78 87 77 85 / 30 50 40 50

[msbee]

Crown Weather Services


Issued: Friday, June 3, 2011 425 pm EDT/325 pm CDT

If you cannot see the graphic images in your e-mail, you can view the entire forecast with graphic images at http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557 .

Invest 94-L:

Just a very quick afternoon discussion to let you all know that the National Hurricane Center has designated the disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean as Invest 94-L. Afternoon satellite imagery showed some deep convection on the east side of the circulation that is a broad area of low pressure. This broad area of low pressure was located about 200 miles or so south of Jamaica. Upper air analysis showed an area of high pressure trying to develop over this system and wind shear values continue to diminish this afternoon.
Environmental conditions are still forecast to be favorable for development right through this weekend and into next week and I do believe that this will become a tropical depression and very possibly a tropical storm with time. This system is still very broad in size and these types of systems can take many days to organize and intensify into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, however, I think it will get there with time given the following environmental factors: Very warm ocean water temperatures, favorable wind shear conditions and the Madden-Julian Oscillation will be in a upward motion phase for much of next week.

As for a possible track, I expect this disturbance to remain nearly stationary through this weekend. Once we get into next week, I think a slow northward track towards Jamaica and Cuba may be possible. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build into the Bahamas and Florida and this should keep Invest 94-L in the Caribbean for at least the next several days. I do not believe the BAM track model guidance of a quick northeasterly track. The forecast upper-level pattern does not support the BAM track model guidance. It should be noted that the latest European model guidance forecasts Invest 94-L to meander around the Caribbean for the next six to seven days and then be pulled northward by a trough of low pressure tracking off of the US East Coast next weekend

Finally, residents and vacationers in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic should be aware that heavy rainfall will continue right through this weekend and possibly into next week. Flash flooding and mudslides are a real threat across this area.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Thur-8pmET Fri) for
Fri June 3 2011

HEAVY RAINS OVER TRINIDAD, THE GUYANAS, THANKS TO ITCZ
RAINSTORMS OVER JAMAICA THANKS TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 30.8C 87F 41.9mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 28.2C 83F 12.7mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.9C 90F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.2C 88F

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.1C 90F
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 31.5C 89F
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.9C 90F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.9C 88F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.2C 88F
San Juan, PR 30.0C 86F 2.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.5C 87F 2.8mm
Kingston, Jamaica 27.8C 82F 69.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.5C 91F 27.5mm
Havana, Cuba 31.4C 88F
Miami, FL 32.2C 90F
Nassau, Bahamas 30.8C 87F
Hamilton, Bermuda 27.2C 81F 3.8mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 32.3C 90F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.8C 87F 0.4mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.3C 88F

Cayenne, French Guiana 28.3C 83F 87.0mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

In the Dominican Republic,the authorities are dealing with flooding and mudslides.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... or-lluvias

[Macrocane]

Today Guatemala experienced again cooler than normal lows, Panama cooler than normal highs and the rest of the region had near normal temps.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F) Coolest since May 8.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.5°C (43.7°F) Coolest since May 8.
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F) Coolest since May 8.
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.6°C (54.7°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.1°C (59.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31°C (88°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.1°C (93.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.9°C (67.8°F)

[JonathanBelles]

Flood watch has been issued for all of Jamaica

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST FRI JUN 3 2011

.UPDATE...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
IS KEEPING VERY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. TROUGHING WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST OF THIS AND OVER HISPANIOLA...KEEPING AREAS OF HIGH
HUMIDITY OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A DEEP
POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUSTAIN GOOD
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAT WILL HELP TO GENERATE AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL NOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY...MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MOST FLOODING LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS...HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ARE BECOMING
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH SATURATED SOILS AND ABOVE
NORMAL STREAM AND RIVER FLOW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAINS OVER THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL
ONLY AGGRAVATE THIS SITUATION. WHILE ALL AREAS ARE AT RISK OF
EXPERIENCING SOME FLOODING AREAS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
ARE AT GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
DUE TO THE PRESENT STATE OF THE SOIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER TJBQ...TJMZ...AND
TJSJ UNTIL 04/06Z...BUT VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AFT 04/16Z MTN
OBSCURATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WILL DEVELOP AT TJMZ...TJBQ...AND
TJSJ TIL 04/22Z DUE TO TSRA. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No change from the very rainy forecasts for the next few days..We keep watching 94L in the Central Caribbean.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 AM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
INCREASES THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...

A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS KEEPING VERY
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. TROUGHING WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST OF
THIS AND OVER HISPANIOLA...KEEPING AREAS OF HIGH HUMIDITY OVER
PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A DEEP POLAR TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUSTAIN GOOD VERTICAL LIFT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAT WILL HELP TO GENERATE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FLOODING LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ARE BECOMING MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH SATURATED SOILS AND ABOVE
NORMAL STREAM AND RIVER FLOW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAINS OVER THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL
ONLY AGGRAVATE THIS SITUATION. WHILE ALL AREAS ARE AT RISK OF
EXPERIENCING SOME FLOODING...AREAS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
ARE AT GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
DUE TO THE PRESENT STATE OF THE SOIL CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY
PLUMES OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY SET UP OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING
IN AREA GUTS.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED SUNDAY MORNING OR WHEN CONDITIONS
CHANGE...WHICHEVER IS EARLIER.

[cycloneye]

Wow,what a wet discussion this one is:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
WILL LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATED RAIN HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
WESTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. OTHER SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...MAINLY OVER SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT
JOHN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL END.
UNFORTUNATELY...IS NOT GOING TO BE ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...THINGS ARE
SLOWLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS IN STORE
FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER IN THIS POSITION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AN IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE PLACE ALSO ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP
OVER OR NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. IS NOT CLEAR YET...IF A NEW
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM...OR WILL BE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ANY CASE...A
VERY WET SCENARIO...IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR MAINLY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WHEN ALL INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A GOOD
DEAL OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
SURPRISINGLY...COMPUTER MODELS AGREED IN THIS SCENARIO...AND IN
THE TIMING OF THE EVENT.

PW VALUES ARE EXPECT TO RISE AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THETA-E VALUES RISING FROM 325K TO NEAR 343K BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FACTORS...IN COMBINATION WITH AN INCREASE IN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...BETWEEN 20-25KT AT THE
SURFACE...PROMISE TO BRING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HISTORICALLY...THIS WEATHER SCENARIO HAS CREATED FLOODING
PROBLEMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

DUE TO PREVIOUS RAINFALL... SOILS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...ARE VERY SATURATED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ONLY WILL AGGRAVATED THE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...AND
RIVERS WILL REACT QUICKLY TO NEW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. PEOPLE
ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED FOR LATEST ADVISORIES...WATCHES...OR
WARNINGS WHICH CAN BE ISSUE DURING THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS
THIS SITUATION DEVELOPS DURING THE NEXT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION....VCSH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ALL PR AND VI
TAF SITES IN THE MORNING MAINLY OVER THE TERMINAL OF TJBQ AND
TJMZ. AFT 04/16Z...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ IN SHRA AND
TSRA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SFC TO
15 KFT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...REFER TO ESFSJU (HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK) PRODUCT FOR
IMPORTANT INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE RISK FOR SIGNIFCANT FLOODING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 76 / 70 60 60 30
STT 86 76 87 75 / 50 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1021 AM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

.UPDATE...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECASTS BUT
WILL UPDATE THEIR WORDING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS PR ENDED THIS MORNING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING. CUMULUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PR...QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE
LINE OF CLEARING. NO RAIN SHOWING UP ON RADAR YET BUT EXPECT THAT
TO BEGIN AT LEAST BY NOON... AS FORECAST CURRENTLY STATES. THERE
IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE (2.29 INCHES) ON SJU RAOB AND THE LOW LEVEL
DRY LAYER IS ALMOST GONE. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A LOW LEVEL RIDGE
THAT WILL PASS OVER THE ISLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
WOULD SERVE TO USHER IN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LURKING SOUTH OF PR
AND HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY THEN. SJU VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS
WINDS AT AND BELOW 5 KFT HAVE TURNED SOUTH ALBEIT WEAK BUT IT
CONFIRMS THE RIDGE IS APPROACHING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNTIL
THEN IS NOT STRONG AS IT MAY BE BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY INCLUDING TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ
IN SHRA AND TSRA. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
LESS WIDESPREAD AT TJPS/TIST AND DECREASES TO ISOLD AT TISX. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SFC TO 12 KFT...MAINLY
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

PRC007-025-041-042045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0194.110604T1842Z-110604T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-
242 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CIDRA AND AGUAS BUENAS

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 239 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND MORE HEAVY SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING. THIS RAINFALL
ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS...AS
WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 445 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1828 6614 1826 6605 1819 6610 1822 6616

$$
GV
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

PRC013-017-027-065-081-141-042215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0195.110604T1909Z-110604T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UTUADO PR-LARES PR-BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
309 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO...LARES...BARCELONETA...CAMUY...HATILLO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 305 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND MORE HEAVY SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING. THIS RAINFALL
ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS...AS
WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 615 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6686 1845 6658 1827 6663 1825 6692

$$

FIGUEROA

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN CONTINUES TO PROMOTE
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC WILL DIG INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. AFTER SUNDAY EVENING...A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN CONTINUES TO BRING A DENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE PROVIDES A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER WERE OBSERVED LATE THIS MORNING OVER PUERTO
RICO ALLOWING THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AS A RESULT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS...
WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
TOO MUCH AT LEAST THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE DERIVED TPW AND GPS MET DATA INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS PRECITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE 25-50 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND A LONG FETCH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY EVENING TO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHEN THE MODELS FORECAST A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM
THE BROAD LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COULD BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECAST IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ IN SHRA AND
TSRA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SFC TO
15 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECTED SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS.
HOWEVER...ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOILS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF...ARE VERY SATURATED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ONLY WILL AGGRAVATED
THE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...AND RIVERS WILL REACT
QUICKLY TO NEW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY
TUNED FOR LATEST ADVISORIES...WATCHES...OR WARNINGS WHICH CAN BE
ISSUE DURING THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS THIS SITUATION DEVELOPS
DURING THE NEXT DAYS. REFER TO ESFSJU (HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK) PRODUCT
FOR INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
RISK FOR SIGNIFCANT FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 74 85 / 70 70 60 70
STT 75 84 74 86 / 50 50 50 80

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC027-065-081-141-042300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0047.110604T2002Z-110604T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
402 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO
LARES
CAMUY
HATILLO

* UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 400 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED
IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO MANATI AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. MOTORISTS
DRIVING ALONG THE RIO MANATI IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6686 1848 6680 1827 6678 1826 6685

$$

FIGUEROA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC127-042300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0046.110604T2002Z-110604T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
402 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 355 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED
TO INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING ACROSS SAN JUAN AND VICINITY.
IN ADDITION...U.S.G.S. RIVER SENSOR THAT THE LEVELS OF RIO PIEDRAS
WERE RISING RAPIDLY AND WILL GO PAST FLOOD STAGE WITHING THE NEXT 5
MINUTES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6610 1844 6609 1845 6608 1840 6604
1834 6604 1830 6608

$$

ER

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC119-042245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0045.110604T1952Z-110604T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
352 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

* AT 345 PM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA.
THIS WILL GENERATE A VERY FAST RISE TO FLOOD STAGE ON RIO ESPIRITU
SANTO AT RIO GRANDE. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.
OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS 645 PM AST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1838 6584 1843 6582 1842 6578 1837 6580
1830 6580 1828 6583

$$

FIGUEROA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

PRC013-017-027-065-081-141-042230-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0195.000000T0000Z-110604T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UTUADO PR-LARES PR-BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
603 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO...LARES...BARCELONETA...CAMUY...HATILLO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 557 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
REPORTED FLOODING IN SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER
IN URBAN AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6686 1845 6658 1827 6663 1825 6692

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

PRC021-039-047-051-061-091-101-105-127-135-137-143-145-050115-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0196.000000T0000Z-110605T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-NARANJITO PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA
PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-SAN
JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
552 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CIALES...COROZAL...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...
VEGA ALTA...DORADO...GUAYNABO...MANATI...VEGA BAJA...SAN JUAN
AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 915 PM AST

* AT 545 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED
FLOODING IN SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6647 1844 6607 1830 6606 1827 6654

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
646 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

PRC003-005-011-023-067-071-079-083-093-097-099-115-117-125-131-
050145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0198.110604T2246Z-110605T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
SAN GERMAN PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON PR-LAJAS PR-ANASCO PR-
646 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN
GERMAN...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...CABO
ROJO...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON...LAJAS AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 945 PM AST

* AT 639 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ADVISORY AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. PUBLIC ACROSS
THESE MUNICIPALITIES REPORTED SOME FLOODING ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1796 6721 1816 6718 1836 6728 1851 6716
1849 6690 1816 6692 1815 6698 1798 6700

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
740 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

PRC051-135-137-050530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0019.110604T2340Z-110605T0530Z/
/00000.0..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TOA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-TOA BAJA PR-
740 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DORADO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
TOA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
TOA BAJA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 130 AM AST SUNDAY MORNING

* AT 735 PM...AST...THE USGS RIVER GAGE SENSOR AT RIO DE LA PLATA
ACROSS DORADO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA INDICATED THAT THE RIVER LEVEL
WAS NEAR FLOOD STAGE. MOTORISTS DRIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG
RIO DE LA PLATA AND ITS TRIBUTARIES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION
TONIGHT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A
FLOODED ROADWAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 1847 6629 1847 6624 1833 6621 1833 6626

$$

FIGUEROA/RODRIGUEZ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
726 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

PRC017-039-091-101-050515-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0018.110604T2326Z-110605T0515Z/
/00000.0..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-MOROVIS PR-BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-
726 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BARCELONETA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
CIALES MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MANATI MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOROVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 115 AM AST

* AT 715 PM...AST THE USGS RIVER GAGE SENSOR ON RIO MANATI
INDICATED THAT THE RIVER LEVEL WAS ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE. MOTORISTS
DRIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG RIO MANATI AND ITS TRIBUTARIES
SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION TONIGHT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 1840 6652 1843 6655 1848 6656 1847 6651
1845 6651 1842 6648 1839 6647 1831 6644
1830 6647

$$

FIGUEROA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Fri-8pmET Sat) for
Sat Jun 4 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.9C 90F 6.6mm
Couva, Central Trinidad 30.2C 86F 35.1mm
Pointe-a-Pierre, SW Trinidad 28.7C 84F 19.3mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.6C 87F 58.9mm (afternoon thunderstorms)
Crown Point, Tobago 31.0C 88F 4.0mm

Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.9C 88F 4.0mm (early evening showers)
Rockley, S. Barbados 32.3C 90F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.0C 90F
Hewannora AIrport, St Lucia 31.4C 88F
LeLamentin, Martinique 33.6C 93F
LeRaizet, Guadeloupe 31.7C 89F

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.4C 87F 6.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 31.3C 88F 13.6mm
San Juan, PR 28.9C 84F 11.6mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.4C 87F 3.6mm
Kingtson, Jamaica 28.8C 84F 0.6mm (to 2pmET)
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.8C 87F 13.0mm
Havana, Cuba 31.8C 89F
Miami, FL 31.6C 89F
Nassau, Bahamas 30.1C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 25.7C 78F 1.5mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
846 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

PRC059-075-111-113-133-149-153-050345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0199.110605T0046Z-110605T0345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAUCO PR-VILLALBA PR-GUAYANILLA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-
SANTA ISABEL PR-PENUELAS PR-
846 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
YAUCO...VILLALBA...GUAYANILLA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE...SANTA
ISABEL AND PENUELAS

* UNTIL 1145 PM AST

* AT 835 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE HEAVY SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING. THIS
RAINFALL ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST 1145 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1796 6685 1813 6689 1810 6644 1794 6636

$$

FIGUEROA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------