ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[MGC]

Looks like 94L took a step backwards last night....little if any convection near the surface circulation. I am betting recon will be a no go....no need to waste the gas on this.......MGC

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

The circulation looks to be very broad, from the visible loop. As the shear moves out of the area and the broad low continues to fire up t-storms, maybe this might be our first tropical system this year. I can see the center of the swirling mass is just to the SSW of Jamaica. Also if you look at the surface, there appears to be some increase in cloud cover in general as the day goes on. Maybe we'll be looking at a different system by the end of the day tonight.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'd also like to add that if you look at the WV loop, the dry air seems to be inhibiting the broad low as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[srainhoutx]

Todays mission has been canceled.However,they have other ones for Sunday and beyond.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 041515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 05/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
       C. 05/1430Z
       D. 17.0N 78.0W
       E. 05/1745Z TO 04/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 06/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 06/0145Z
       D. 17.0N 78.0W
       E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
    3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
       BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.


Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 05/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
       C. 05/1430Z
       D. 17.0N 78.0W
       E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 06/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 06/0145Z
       D. 17.0N 78.0W
       E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
    3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
       BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.



[cycloneye]

GFS has had these two lows for many runs. Todays 12z run is more of the same. PR is drenched with that second low,we dont need more.





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[HURAKAN]

very broad swirl, Jamaica would easily fit inside of it!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Yeah that dry air is really ausing problems as I thought it might well do yesterday if it became injested into the systems broad gyre.

[Nimbus]

The surface low is almost stationary and you can see the high starting to build over Florida. Lots of real dry air moving south over the Bahamas. Maybe 94L will stay dry like 93L did, without convective lift from a CDO pumping moisture into the outflow the environment might stay dry.

[Ivanhater]

[NDG]

Got to love twisterdata.
This a Skew-T sounding of the western side of the circulation of 94L, notice the westerly drier air wind nosiing in between H50 & H30, that's what has been pushing the convection away from its broad surface circulation, not until those winds led up, 94L is not going to do much, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30% at 2 PM TWO

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Dean4Storms]

Don't see much chance over the weekend, this dry air will take time to moisten. Maybe first of next week before any real shot at development.

[Nimbus]

The trough missed and there is a little convection building further west around the north side of the circulation. With a high over Florida the Caribbean moisture would tend to get pulled northwest into the gulf. The fact that it might take a couple days to work out the moisture and tighten up the pressure gradient isn't much consolation.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 041845
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110604 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110604  1800   110605  0600   110605  1800   110606  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.0N  78.2W   16.1N  79.0W   16.3N  79.8W   16.3N  80.2W
BAMD    16.0N  78.2W   16.3N  78.7W   16.5N  79.4W   16.9N  79.9W
BAMM    16.0N  78.2W   16.1N  78.8W   16.2N  79.6W   16.4N  80.1W
LBAR    16.0N  78.2W   16.4N  78.5W   17.5N  78.6W   18.5N  78.0W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          29KTS          33KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          29KTS          33KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110606  1800   110607  1800   110608  1800   110609  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  80.1W   16.8N  79.8W   17.2N  80.2W   17.6N  80.7W
BAMD    17.5N  80.0W   19.9N  78.0W   23.7N  75.2W   28.0N  74.2W
BAMM    16.8N  80.2W   17.9N  79.2W   19.6N  78.7W   22.1N  78.3W
LBAR    19.7N  76.8W   22.0N  72.4W   26.3N  63.7W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        38KTS          43KTS          33KTS          20KTS
DSHP        38KTS          43KTS          33KTS          25KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.0N LONCUR =  78.2W DIRCUR = 230DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  16.2N LONM12 =  77.8W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 =   1KT
LATM24 =  16.2N LONM24 =  77.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  150NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS has two low pressures developing.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SunnyFla]

I am heading out on cruise tomorrow from Miami to Bahamas, St. Thomas, Puerto Rico, Grand Turk, and then home---will this thing be giving us rain?

[wxman57]

Looks a lot less organized since yesterday. Development chances dwindling. That's good.

[HURAKAN]

latest obs + visible image