ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#181 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 3:26 pm

Ahh gotta love those monsoonal lows they sure develop quickly.. :spam:

It still has many days for it to get its act together just a wait and see scenario.

TheBurn · #182 Postby **TheBurn** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 3:47 pm

#183 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 3:57 pm

If I had to pick a model to go with is the UKMET it has been the most consistent of the global models.

Here is Tuesday morning.

And Thursday morning.

Beyond that time frame is a tough call because the GFS forecast for the shear to increase and the Euro has the subtropical jet stream in the North Western Caribbean.

#184 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:39 pm

12Z ECMWF leaves it down in the Carib. for a week and then brings it up the west coast of FL next weekend as a weak low.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

#185 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:41 pm

Pressures have been decreasing over the last few days but nothing eye opening

#186 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 5:00 pm

Hurakan..... I'm not expecting hardly any drop in pressures until convection fires over the center and sustains if it ever does. It is always tough to call possible future intensities, but none of the models are all that bullish. Going to be a wait and see mode all week from the looks of it.

#187 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 5:12 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Hurakan..... I'm not expecting hardly any drop in pressures until convection fires over the center and sustains if it ever does. It is always tough to call possible future intensities, but none of the models are all that bullish. Going to be a wait and see mode all week from the looks of it.

correct ... yesterday I was more inclined towards development but now it's wait and see.

boca · #188 Postby **boca** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 5:18 pm

I'm hoping we get nailed by 94L we are too dry in South Florida.

#189 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 6:33 pm

Down to 20% at 8 PM TWO

No surprise.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR FAVORABLE...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DISORGANIZED LOW CENTER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

caribepr · #190 Postby **caribepr** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 6:36 pm

Haiti is still a disaster...very bad weather news indeed.

#191 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 6:42 pm

caribepr wrote:Haiti is still a disaster...very bad weather news indeed.

Hi Mj, long time no see around here. Indeed, they dont need more calamities of any kind. Dont forget to stop by the Caribbean thread.

#192 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 7:35 pm

00z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2011060500, , BEST, 0, 161N, 787W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

#193 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 7:36 pm

The vorticity at 850 mb has been increasing over the last few days and also consolidating. A few days ago there were about 2 centers of vorticity.

#194 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 7:47 pm

I'm slowly losing the belief that 94L will ever develop. Although this may be a stretch, there are hints that convection may flare up closer to the center, as a little cell is beginning to pop south of Jamaica.

#195 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 7:52 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
latest

Sandy, please take a moment and give a brief narrative of your images. It will help those learning. :wink:

#196 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 7:55 pm

Dry air starting to get mixed out?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

ronjon · #197 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 8:05 pm

18Z GFDL moderate tropical storm in central GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011060418-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

#198 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 8:18 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
latest

Sandy, please take a moment and give a brief narrative of your images. It will help those learning.

Sorry, sometimes I assume everyone knows

#199 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 8:31 pm

The GDFL run raises an eyebrow. On the other hand, the HWRF suggests a much quicker consolidation. I tend to believe the slower of the two make more sense with a monsoonal trough/gyre.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

crazy4disney · #200 Postby **crazy4disney** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:11 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
latest

Sandy, please take a moment and give a brief narrative of your images. It will help those learning.

Sorry, sometimes I assume everyone knows

Maybe I'm the only one, but I'm still learning!!

Any explanations/summaries/narratives are *always* appreciated. :sun:

-gina-

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