ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[wxman57]

Surface obs and low-level cloud movement indicate that any LLC is well west of the convection, not far from 16N/80W. Lowest pressure is just west of that point. Pressures are a few millibars higher near the convection. Note the low-level clouds are moving from SW to NE just south of 15N/80W, indicating the low center is north of there.

[KWT]

Yeah that looks about right Wxman57, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the system get a bit more stacked then it presently is today.

[NDG]

Looking at the Cayman Islands sounding this morning compared to last night & yesterday morning has a definite improving mid level conditions in the NW quadrant of 94L, those dry westerly winds between H50 & H30 are almost gone this morning so it is starting to moisten up little by little.

[NDG]

Surface obs and low-level cloud movement indicate that any LLC is well west of the convection, not far from 16N/80W. Lowest pressure is just west of that point. Pressures are a few millibars higher near the convection. Note the low-level clouds are moving from SW to NE just south of 15N/80W, indicating the low center is north of there.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94Lb.gif

To me that area that you are pointing out is just an eddie circulating around the broader surface low, if you loop it long enough you see it tracking southward.

[AHS2011]

Code red by 2 PM adviosry?

[Evil Jeremy]

Code red by 2 PM adviosry?

Welcome to S2K. And I don't think we'll get to red that fast. They'll probably up the percentage to 40% though. Seeing how 94L fell apart yesterday, NHC will probably stay conservative for now, in case it happens again. I do think Recon will fly in now though, probably 70/30 on that IMO. This is an organizing system and the convection is stabilizing.

[AHS2011]

Thanks for the welcome Evil Jeremy. When do you think they would send the recon into the system today, if they do?

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the welcome Evil Jeremy. When do you think they would send the recon into the system today, if they do?

The National Hurricane Center provides this information on their website. If you go to this link and check out "Plan of the Day." You can see what NHC's plans are for the next two days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

[KWT]

Yep I'd say 40% is probably a good call. With regards to recon, 40% usually isn't high enough for recon to fly in but who knows!

[SouthDadeFish]

Look how much it has improved since last night:



And currently:



That narrow little line of convection really got this thing going.

If a circulation center can become better established closer to the convection this thing may finally be able to develop.

[AHS2011]

That's a lot of development for the system over just one night, SouthDadeFish. Arlene by tomorrow?

[CrazyC83]

NOGAPS last year was the worst model of all, so it has a lot of work to do to make up this year.

[cycloneye]

Nothing yet from the decoding site of a takeoff. Let's see what today's TCPOD has soon.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[KWT]

Convection is still a little too displaced to the east of the center IMO but yeah thats a pretty impressive ramp up of convection it has to be said!

[SouthDadeFish]

That's a lot of development for the system over just one night, SouthDadeFish. Arlene by tomorrow?

It's hard to say. I mean it's certainly possible if the circulation center re-develops underneath that convection. But if the only circulation center is where wxman pointed out than this thing is not that organized. This is why I really hope recon flies out there today to see if anything is trying to form farther east.

[srainhoutx]

Not surprising, RECON cancelled today...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 05 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 06/1430Z
D. 17.0N 79.5W
E. 06/1745Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 07/0215Z
D. 17.5N 80.0W
E. 07/0500Z TO 07/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.

[cycloneye]

Recon Canceled for today

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 051500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 05 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JUNE 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-005

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 06/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
       C. 06/1430Z
       D. 17.0N 79.5W
       E. 06/1745Z TO 06/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 07/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 07/0215Z
       D. 17.5N 80.0W
       E. 07/0500Z TO 07/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
    3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
       MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.



[gatorcane]

NAM slowly north-northwest:

[KWT]

Yeah really need risk of development to be above 50% if your going to get recon flying into the system, probably the right call...

[Ivanhater]

@BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Tropical Disturbance looking stronger this morning.. Should be in eastern Gulf and then affect Florida next weekend. Keep an eye on this