ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[SouthDadeFish]

I see that little naked swirl there wxman57, it moved wnw pretty quickly. Just not sure now that a LLC is not forming further east in the convection, it wouldn't take much.

I agree. If that naked swirl outruns the convection too much, it could die off and we could see a new one possibly develop under the MLC, which would change a lot. Or it could just sit and swirl there leaving us all waiting

[gatorcane]

I see a nice upper-level anticyclone over the system because the cloud tops are fanning out symmetrically.

I think this may be a time the gfs is wrong as conditions appear conducive for development while it is in the Caribbean.

I was wondering why it was not showing development yesterday....

[Dean4Storms]

I see a nice upper-level anticyclone over the system because the cloud tops are fanning out symmetrically.

I think this may be a time the gfs is wrong as conditions appear conducive for development while it is in the Caribbean.

I was wondering why it was not showing development yesterday....

Wxman57 hit it, low convergence with the dry air still on the western periphery. The dry air has moistened somewhat but it has a way to go!

[Dean4Storms]

I see that little naked swirl there wxman57, it moved wnw pretty quickly. Just not sure now that a LLC is not forming further east in the convection, it wouldn't take much.

I agree. If that naked swirl outruns the convection too much, it could die off and we could see a new one possibly develop under the MLC, which would change a lot. Or it could just sit and swirl there leaving us all waiting

Not only that, but the wnw direction from its current location roughly 17n 80w would have to begin moving NNW to move in the general direction of western Cuba as all the global models suggest. The MLC area location or maybe a tad west appears to be more in sink with the overall model development of a surface LLC.

Scratch that, just went back and looked at high resolution loop and that small swirl looks to be moving more NNW now if not North.

[gatorcane]

18z gfs rolling. Barely moves the system through 72 hours.

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 051811
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, WHICH IN TURN, IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER SE U.S./GULF OF MEX.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A DRY/WARM PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY LESS
SUBSIDENCE, IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
LOW LEVEL FLOW WL LIKELY ALLOW LOCAL SEA/LAKE BREEZES TO TAKE
PLACE AND THIS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND WEST. ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WEST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY, EVEN IF MINIMAL, MAY KEEP THEM FROM
REACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS BEYOND WEDNESDAY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOST MODELS ARE NOW CONVERGING TOWARD A SIMILAR
SOLUTION WITH ECMWF BEING THE MOST PERSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA BY LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEX BY
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS,
LIKEWISE, INCREASES POPS FOR THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH DOES NOT SEEM AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS, HOWEVER, COULD INCREASE
FURTHER IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND.







DISCUSSION/MARINE...47/RGH
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...60/BD

[gatorcane]

Looks like the dry air is mixing out. Big thunderstorms are blowing up over the coastline of nicaragua and also there are storms over the yucatan that were not there yesterday. Notice the shear over the yucatan though as the cloud tops are getting blown off to the Northeat towards Florida.

The system has the look of a cyclone that is in its seminal stages in a monsoon trough that you would find in the other side of the world.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

18z gfs shows a mid-level high sitting over the yucatan at 120 hours. Another high is just off of the carolinas. There looks to be a building ridge over the central and eastern Caribbean. That would allow the system to track slowly northwest then north over western Cuba and into the straits of Florida.

But the 250mb winds are hostile over the nw Carib and Florida by then as it looks like the subtropical jet moves in. So a strong system in the GOM or over Florida looks unlikely at this time.

[Ptarmigan]

If 94L develops, it is slow to occur as it is a broad system. The question if it will develop and where will it go.

[gatorcane]

Last vis for the day. Looking impressive with a comma shape:

IR showing cloud tops warming though, will see if this is temporary or a trend.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible image and surface obs

[Ivanhater]

Circulation south of Jamaica is intriguing

[HURAKAN]

It looks like a mid-level circulation and maybe it will take over. Certainly looks interesting!

[TheBurn]

2245Z

[ozonepete]

Looks like the dry air is mixing out. Big thunderstorms are blowing up over the coastline of nicaragua and also there are storms over the yucatan that were not there yesterday. Notice the shear over the yucatan though as the cloud tops are getting blown off to the Northeat towards Florida.

The system has the look of a cyclone that is in its seminal stages in a monsoon trough that you would find in the other side of the world.

I was thinking the exact same thing the last 24 hours or so.

Hi everybody. Hi Ivanhater, Luis, Sandy, wxman57, gatorcane and everybody else. Here we go. Looks to be a busy season.

[TexasF6]

The system looks good, for now...whether we see Arlene out of this, remains to be seen. I for one, and a few other Texans, could use the rain! Hello everyone!

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO=Remains at 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. WHILE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS CONCENTRATED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA OF LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Dean4Storms]

I think another LLC is now east out under the MLC. That MLC has remained impressive all day with convection.

[ROCK]

Looking at the Visible floater, it appears that the convection seems to be shifting to the west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

is that the eye? just joking...

[Canerecon]

The MLC does look quite impressive, let's see if it can work its way down to the surface.