ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#481 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 1:39 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2011060618, , BEST, 0, 180N, 819W, 25, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

Hylian Auree · #482 Postby **Hylian Auree** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 1:39 pm

It is certainly a very erratic and confusing first system of the year, but that's to be expected from monsoon trough disturbances :L I think the current convective burst is its last chance to get convection going near the llc, but the window for development certainly is narrowing very quickly.

#483 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 1:47 pm

What do you guys think about the flare up just NE of the Honduras/Nicaragua border? It is directly under the anticyclone. Also 850mb vorticity and 700mb vorticity are aligned with this feature, not the swirl to the NW of it.

#484 Postby **Nederlander** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 1:56 pm

I love how everyone jumps on and off the bandwagon in a matter of hours with these things.. By this evening everyone will marvel at how wonderful it looks compared to this morning.. I don't have any issues with 50% right now.. 94L is a fighter..

#485 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:00 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:What do you guys think about the flare up just NE of the Honduras/Nicaragua border? It is directly under the anticyclone. Also 850mb vorticity and 700mb vorticity are aligned with this feature, not the swirl to the NW of it.

A positive sign for development.

#486 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:00 pm

Nederlander wrote:I love how everyone jumps on and off the bandwagon in a matter of hours with these things.. By this evening everyone will marvel at how wonderful it looks compared to this morning.. I don't have any issues with 50% right now.. 94L is a fighter..

I don't think so. Convection continues to diminish as wind shear slowly increases.

Hylian Auree · #487 Postby **Hylian Auree** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:05 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:What do you guys think about the flare up just NE of the Honduras/Nicaragua border? It is directly under the anticyclone. Also 850mb vorticity and 700mb vorticity are aligned with this feature, not the swirl to the NW of it.

That's pretty much what I was talking about. At this rate, however, it seems to be one of its only shots at reinforcing development.

hurricanefloyd5 · #488 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:06 pm

could this become a min.35kts ts? headed into the gomex?

Rainband · #489 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:09 pm

ull is taking its toll on this "system"

#490 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:14 pm

postion at 18Z

Hylian Auree · #491 Postby **Hylian Auree** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:19 pm

It's an eye!!!

flwxwatcher · #492 Postby **flwxwatcher** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:31 pm

12Z models not showing much love to 94L at all..

#493 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:31 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:could this become a min.35kts ts? headed into the gomex?

HIGHLY unlikely. Predicted upper-level winds from the extreme NW Caribbean all across the eastern Gulf are from the southwest at 50-70 kts. Water vapor loops shows the strong SW winds (shear) moving eastward into the disturbance now.

flwxwatcher · #494 Postby **flwxwatcher** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:34 pm

Pretty much no model support at all ,even from the CMC of this devloping into much of anything. It looks like shear will be taking it's toll on 94L. Might be about time to break out the forks.

#495 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:42 pm

Enjoy your rain, FL. HPC:

TROPICS... GUIDANCE IS DIVERSE WITH THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FCST TO BE OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN AS OF DAY 3
THU AND AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE IS BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYS 3-4. 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATION YIELDS A
TRACK THAT IS WELL WITHIN THE BROAD SOLN ENVELOPE... WITH A
REMNANT LOW CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

Cainer · #496 Postby **Cainer** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:43 pm

Yeah, I'm not buying the 50% chance of development either. Not much has happened yet today, and it's had better conditions for the past several days and did nothing, so I don't see why it would develop now in the face of worsening conditions. Still, hopefully you people in South Florida get some rain from this, looks like you need it!

hurricanefloyd5 · #497 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 3:03 pm

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...TROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA ACCORDING TO BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD CARIBBEAN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE GFS IS COMPARATIVELY MORE CONSERVATIVE IN ITS EXTENT OF
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...BOTH CONTINUE THE TREND AND
SERVE TO ELEVATE RAINFALL HOPES DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOISTURE IS
PART OF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT IS CURRENTLY LARGE AND
DISORGANIZED...BUT THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ENDEAVOR TO WORK AGAINST IT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Decomdoug · #498 Postby **Decomdoug** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 3:16 pm

We really need the rain here in Port St. Lucie. 10 inches of precip since last October. We're about 24 inches below normal. Its drier here than a bowl of:

[img]

#499 Postby **lrak** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 4:06 pm

This is beginning to look like last year's teasers.

#500 Postby **Cuber** » Mon Jun 06, 2011 4:54 pm

Decomdoug wrote:We really need the rain here in Port St. Lucie. 10 inches of precip since last October. We're about 24 inches below normal. Its drier here than a bowl of:

http://img823.imageshack.us/i/smartpop.jpg/][img]http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/5952/smartpop.jpg

... with no butter and extra salt

ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

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