ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ptarmigan]

I'm starting to think we might get into an El Nino this year?

Some El Nino seasons have been very active like 1969. It would give us a wetter pattern for us, rain we need. If El Nino was to happen, winter could be interesting.

Speaking of El Nino, I compared data with Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and NOAA. Here is what I got for Summer (June to August) and Peak Season (August to October)
JMA
Summer
5.7

Peak Season
5

NOAA
Summer
-1 (-0.1 Originally, but multiplied it by 10)

Peak Season
0

Quite a discrepancy right there. JMA has a weak El Nino, while NOAA has it Neutral. NOAA uses Nino 3.4, while JMA calculates monthly SST anomalies averaged for the area 4N to 4S and 150W to 90W.

JMA
ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5
ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/Readme.txt

NOAA
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[MGC]

Yea Crazy, the chances of a weak El Nino are increasing....have you looked at how warm the subsurface waters are in the Pacific?.....MGC

[cycloneye]

But, the majority of models like CFS are Neutral until the end of 2011.



New version of CFS model



All ENSO Models



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[NDG]

Personally I think is too late to still think that ENSO could go into an El Nino by the heart of the hurricane season, the warming that we have saw in the equatorial Pacific during the few months has come to almost a hault if anything a slight cool down as shown by the image below, this is supported by the models that cycloneye just posted above, the last two years that we saw a neutral enso turn into a weak El Nino by the heart of the hurricane season, the waters of the pacific were already warmer than they currently are.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/31/11 Weekly update

Nino 3.4 remains at -0.2C, same as last week.

Niño 4= -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.2ºC
Niño 3= 0.0ºC
Niño1+2= 0.2ºC



Uploaded by imageshack.us

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 6/6/11 Weekly Update

Nino 3.4 warmed slightly during the past week up to -0.1C, up from -0.2C.

Niño 4= -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.1ºC
Niño 3= -0.1ºC
Niño1+2= 0.7ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Macrocane]

Yep I agree that we are not going to see an El Niño this season, maybe we will see anomalies above 0.5°C but they're not going to last the 3 overlapped months that are necessary to call it an El Niño episode.

[cycloneye]

Australian 6/8/11 ENSO update / Neutral conditions have arrived

Now Climate Prediction Center will follow.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[HURRICANELONNY]

On the front page of the "USA TODAY" was an article about La Nina and the wacky/weird weather this year. Here is a tidbit of what they say was the strongest La Nina on record.

Based on measurements of air pressure differences, another way of measuring La Niña besides sea-surface temperatures, this La Niña in February was the most intense on record. Accurate measurements go back to 1950.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center Announces Pacific is in Neutral Status

Now the big question is,if El Nino will make an appeareance at some point in the next 2-4 month timeframe,or Neutral will be the rule until the end of 2011.

Climate Prediction Center June Update

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have developed and are expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011.

A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions occurred during May 2011 as indicated by generally small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean east of the Date Line (Fig. 1). The latest weekly Niño index values (Fig. 2) showed near-average SSTs in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Niño-4 index of –0.2oC and Niño 3.4 index of –0.1oC), and above-average SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Niño-1+2 index of +0.7oC). The subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) remained elevated, but relatively constant during the month, reflecting a large area of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). Consistent with other transitions to ENSO-neutral conditions, the atmospheric circulation anomalies continued to show some features consistent with La Niña, albeit at weaker strength. Convection was enhanced over eastern Indonesia and suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds weakened but persisted over the central Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions, but with lingering La Niña-like atmospheric impacts, particularly in the global Tropics.

Current observed trends, along with forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011 (three-month average in the Niño-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6). Thereafter, most models and all multi-model forecasts (shown by the thick lines) predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the remainder of 2011. However, the status of ENSO beyond the Northern Hemisphere summer remains more uncertain due to lower model forecast skill at longer lead times, particularly during this time of year.

[cycloneye]

Here is a cool graphic that shows how the MJO works with those kelvin waves moving from west to east.

[cycloneye]

The POAMA model has been very warm bullish for the past few months,in fact it had a moderate El Nino by August. But in the past 2 weeks,it has reversed and now calls for a Neutral/weak El Nino by the peak of the season.

April thru May forecast:



May 13 thru June 11 forecast:

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center Weekly Update of 6/13/11

Nino 3.4 is now up to 0.0C.

Niño 4= -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4= 0.0ºC
Niño 3= 0.2ºC
Niño1+2= 0.9ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

What temps are needed for Nino conditions to take place?

[Macrocane]

What temps are needed for Nino conditions to take place?

Region Niño 3.4 has to have anomalies above +0.5°C.

[cycloneye]

The latest Euroship forecast of June for ENSO at Nino 3.4 area, shows it in the warm Neutral to Weak El Nino territory.

[NDG]

The latest Euroship forecast of June for ENSO at Nino 3.4 area, shows it in the warm Neutral to Weak El Nino territory.

But compared to last month's forecast it shows that its individual ensemble members are not so widespread, the majority of them are now in the neutral zone compared to last month's, a better confidence that it will stay in a warm neutral zone at the most and not into a weak El Nino territory, IMO.

[cycloneye]

June update of all ENSO Models

Only four of them go to weak el nino by August,September and October,the rest stay in Neutral thru the rest of 2011.

Discussion of June Update

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 6/20/11 update

Nino 3.4 area went down to -0.1C. It was 0.0C last week.

Niño 4= -0.2ºC
Niño= 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3= +0.2ºC
Niño 1+2= +0.8ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Australian update at 6/22/11

Nothing new here as neutral ENSO continues.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/