Upcoming week - June 6-12

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

Well, that was a bit of a mixed bag. I was right in calling for no development away from the Caribbean, and that happened despite a surprise Invest 93L going from east of Florida to the western Gulf of Mexico. I also said there would be no development in the Caribbean until Saturday due to environmental conditions not being yet entirely favorable. By this, I meant still a shearing environment, along with a broad low pressure without an African tropical wave to enhance development. But I did predict a tropical depression that day, and a weak tropical storm on Sunday; neither of this happened. The location would have been very close: I predicted a little northeast of the coast of Honduras, and it would have been a bit further east that that, closer to Jamaica. All in all, I was on the right track with the Caribbean idea, and had many parameters right, but unfortunately called for a development that hasn’t happened yet. Granted, it still could happen this week, but all things considered, my grade for the first week of 2011 is a C.

Invest 94L is still hanging around though in the Caribbean, and it will be another tricky forecast to come. Here we go!

Current situation and models

As I have just said, Invest 94L is hanging around in the Caribbean, and has slowly gotten better organized over the past couple days near Jamaica. However, models like the Euro, UKMET, and GFS are not very keen on much development. The Canadian and NOGAPS are as bullish as ever though, taking about a moderate tropical storm northward from the Caribbean to the Florida Panhandle. However, there is still a lot of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico that could easily tear a system like this apart. Yes, it could abate some more and allow for intensification by the time Invest 94L gets there (if it does). However, given that only two models are calling for this solution, and three others have backed off from development, that doesn’t appear to be all that likely. All this said, a rain threat will still take place as long as it’s close to land, namely to Jamaica, Central America, Cuba, and Florida.

Nowhere else looks suspect for development for this upcoming week on the surface.

Recent history

Not many new storms have developed during this upcoming week in the modern era. Since 1960, we find the following new developments (not active come in, i.e. Alma in 1966 or Allison in 2001):

Andrew in 1986 (not the infamous one)
Arlene in 1999
Arlene in 2005
Alberto in 2006

Yikes, only four new storms from June 6-12! Of course, some storms, including Alma in 1966, Abby in 1968, and Allison in 2001, were still active. Alma is of particular interest since it became a C3 hurricane this upcoming week. Abby is the only other one of this bunch to have been a hurricane, and only briefly (and as I stated last week, maybe HURDAT will downgrade it to a tropical storm when they get that far, but that’s for a different discussion). Also interesting is that Andrew and 1999 Arlene developed in areas not typically thought of for development in June, while 2005 Arlene and Alberto did. Not surprisingly, the latter two both grew stronger than the former two. Yet, these latter two share another thing in common with each other and with Alma and Abby: they both peaked and then weakened before their landfalls on the Gulf Coast.

So what does this all tell us?

For one, Invest 94L is slow to develop, if it will at all. But it is in what is normally a favorable spot for early June. Shear is still prevalent over the Gulf of Mexico, and if Invest 94L develops and turns north, it will probably not be the moderate tropical storm that the Canadian and NOGAPS models are jumping on. As for no development altogether per at least close to the GFS, UKMET, and Euro, that would seem like a very possible outcome, but the way Invest 94L is organizing leads one to think it should sometime probably become a tropical cyclone of some sort. These also point further that the primary threat will most likely be heavy rainfall.

The Prediction

History and models are saying one thing (chances being iffy for development), but the recent organizing trend is saying another (chances being pretty decent for development). Therefore, this has the makings to be an all-or-nothing prediction. From learning from the past with the current along with models, the best solution is probably somewhere in the middle. I’m pretty nervous about this one, but I've indicated all over that I remain a believer in some type of development, and here is my prediction: I predict a tropical depression will develop on Tuesday in the western Caribbean and slowly become Tropical Storm Arlene by Wednesday. Its initial motion will be very slow in the warm waters of the western Caribbean, but it will remain large and disorganized. Despite being lopsided, a general strengthening trend will occur for another day before reaching the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, with maximum sustained winds reaching about 50-60 mph and producing heavy rains over western Cuba. Then, unfavorable conditions aloft will first level off strengthening on Friday night, and then weaken it before a landfall Saturday night on the Florida Panhandle. Maximum sustained winds at landfall will be no higher than 45 mph, but lots of rain will fall throughout Florida and spreading into Georgia and the Carolinas. Arlene will then weaken to a tropical depression and dissipate on Sunday. Confidence is 40%.

Elsewhere, I predict no tropical cyclone activity. Confidence is near 100%.

*crossing fingers*

-Andrew92

[Migle]

This thing fell apart this afternoon so we'll let you slide. Not starting the season off to good though! I remember last year you often did struggle with the timing, but usually did well on the track. June's hard to guess about to.

[Andrew92]

Actually timing of what I thought would generally happen was good last week, if only it hadn't developed. Needless to say, early on I think it's safe to say I'm going to get the "nothing" part of this prediction.

I guess I can hope the timing of movement into the Gulf and Florida is right, assuming that happens.

I've had a gut feeling that there would be a June storm this year, but maybe it's meant to come later, or my gut is just wrong this time.

-Andrew92

[LaBreeze]

Actually timing of what I thought would generally happen was good last week, if only it hadn't developed. Needless to say, early on I think it's safe to say I'm going to get the "nothing" part of this prediction.

I guess I can hope the timing of movement into the Gulf and Florida is right, assuming that happens.

I've had a gut feeling that there would be a June storm this year, but maybe it's meant to come later, or my gut is just wrong this time.

-Andrew92

I am hoping that your prediction is true and this system is out of the way by early next week. Heading to the Keys late next week.

[Andrew92]

In a word, YUCK! What was I thinking calling for Invest 94L when it was not far from very strong shear that was pretty much destined to tear it into shreds? Not only that, I called for a rain threat for Florida to the Carolinas, which didn’t even come close to happening! OK, at least I was right that it would be lopsided. Oh, and I called for no other tropical cyclone activity. Unfortunately, this is far from enough to make up for the well-deserved grade for this past week: F.

New (and hopefully better) prediction coming up shortly.

-Andrew92