Caribbean - Central America Weather

[expat2carib]

Hi, Checking in for the 2011 season.

Very pleased to see you Gusty. Msbee, and Luis and all the others. I'm on/in St. Maarten (Simpson Bay Lagoon) this year.

Vulnerable on a 40 ft trawler so I'm tuned in from now on.

Take care as always.

J.

[cycloneye]

Wow! 100% chance of rain for Monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
857 PM AST SUN JUN 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MID UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH
AGAIN ON THU. SVRL S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS PR/USVI IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE MOST SIG SHORTWAVE EARLY TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PR/USVI OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS. MORE SIG WAVE IS FCST TO MOVE
ACROSS PR/USVI EARLY TUE. MODELS SHOW BIG SLUG OF RAIN MOVING IN
BY 18Z MON ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF PR AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE
MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND THUS THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING. 18Z GFS HAS BROKEN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
FOCUSING THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL ACROSS WRN AND SW PORTIONS OF
PR. A LOOK AT THE 15Z SREF...18Z GFES AND 12Z ECMWF ALL MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PR AND THE USVI. GIVEN THAT THIS LOOKS LIKE A 24
HR RAIN EVENT WE SHOULD BE LOOKING ON AVERAGE AT RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE ORDER OF 10 INCHES BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OF 15+ CANT BE
RULED OUT IN AREAS OF STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING AND WHERE THE
RAIN PERSISTS THE LONGEST. LESSER AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THESE AREAS. SO IN GENERAL...5 TO 10 INCHES SHOULD BE THE
NORM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
12Z IN MDT RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY CONITNUE THROUGH 00Z WED.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN +RA/+TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY IN PORT OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO WX CONDITIONS NOT XPCD UNTIL TUE
NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 76 87 / 100 100 70 70
STT 74 85 76 87 / 100 100 90 80

[cycloneye]

Hi, Checking in for the 2011 season.

Very pleased to see you Gusty. Msbee, and Luis and all the others. I'm on/in St. Maarten (Simpson Bay Lagoon) this year.

Vulnerable on a 40 ft trawler so I'm tuned in from now on.

Take care as always.

J.

Welcome back. Let's hope this season is tranquil for the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Widespread flooding in Jamaica

Here is news from Jamaica of the flooding that is occuring there. Hopefully,no casualties occur.

http://rjrnewsonline.com/news/local/wid ... rn-jamaica

[expat2carib]

Thanks Luis,

Was in Rodney Bay, St Lucia under Tomas last year (on board... no fun). I hope I get a break this season.

[Gustywind]

Hi, Checking in for the 2011 season.

Very pleased to see you Gusty. Msbee, and Luis and all the others. I'm on/in St. Maarten (Simpson Bay Lagoon) this year.

Vulnerable on a 40 ft trawler so I'm tuned in from now on.

Take care as always.

J.

Glad to see you, that's a very good news.

[Gustywind]

Waouw, look at these heavy patches of huge and intense convection southeast of Guadeloupe... Seems that the tstorm activity is increasing today and could reach most of the Northern Windwards, and the Leewards islands. Moreover all the Carib is under a very wet weather scenario. Let's wait and see.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Latest news from Meteo-France Guadeloupe http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php

The time for the next few hours on Guadeloupe
Radar animation is updated every 15 mins, the satellite animation is updated hourly and forecast bulletin at least every 3 hours during the day.

Weather France in Guadeloupe, Hello!
03: 45 Pm, the level of vigilance is yellow for strong rains and THUNDERSTORMS
Thunderstorm activity is significantly restricted in the night. A few storm cells are still present in more isolation between Morne-A- L'Eau and Le Moule. They give rise to heavy showers.
Over the next 6 hours, the time will remain very unstable and threatening. The bulk of the rainfall lies in the high-land south and North Basse-Terre. Elsewhere, will be talking about a small lull with only small rain; lull temporary because thunderstorm activity will quickly resume during the day.
These observations and immediate evolution will be updated to 0645AM.

[Gustywind]

2 AM EDT TWO= Remains at 40%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060541
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS SEPARATED
FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More of the same here as ther flood watch continues thru tuesday afternoon.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST MON JUN 6 2011

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-062215-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-110607T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
609 AM AST MON JUN 6 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A BIG SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING AND WHERE THE
RAINS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

* WIDESPREAD FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EXTENSIVE
INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS. HEAVY DAMAGE TO HOMES AND
BUILDINGS AND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS FROM HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS
IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN AREAS TYPICALLY PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST MON JUN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MID UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH
AGAIN ON THU. SVRL S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS PR/USVI IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE MOST SIG SHORTWAVE EARLY TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO HAVE GENERATE A CONTINUOUS LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
THIS MOISTURE INFLUX PROMISE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO WILL
AGGRAVATE THE ACTUAL SOIL AND RIVER SITUATION AS SOIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ARE SATURATED
AND RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE LANDSLIDE TO OCCUR REMAIN HIGH.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME OF THE RIVERS AND STREAM TO
QUICKLY RISE. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
TJBQ...TJSJ...AND TIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06/16Z. AFTER
06/16Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL TAF SITES IN SHRA
AND TSRA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS FROM THE SFC TO 10K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER
ABOVE.


&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS AN AREA OF
ACTIVE WEATHER MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...CHOPPY SEAS
AND LOW VISIBILITIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 77 / 80 100 80 50
STT 84 76 86 78 / 90 100 80 70

[msbee]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W...ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO GUATEMALA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
NW BASIN FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 74W-86W. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 74W. SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N52W TO 9N58W MOVING WNW 10-15
KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL/S WEST ATLC. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
54W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 9N47W TO
2N46W. CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED AND REMAINS ATTACHED TO ITCZ.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA IN WEST AFRICA...
ENTERING THE EAST ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 5N30W 5N40W TO 7N45W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N50W AND CONTINUING SW TO 5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF W OF 86W. AT
SURFACE...A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW BASIN CENTERED NEAR
28N93W WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM AROUND THE LOW
CENTER. TO THE NNW OF THIS LOW...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED EXTENDING ACROSS THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30W94W TO 30N89W TO
30N86W. OTHER THAN A LIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE ALONG THE
TROUGH...NO ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED NEAR THE AXIS. TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS TROUGH...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N87W. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
SITTING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DISCUSSED ABOVE. DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY W
OF 74W N OF 13N. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS DISRUPTED REGULAR TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SSE CONVERGING WINDS E OF 75W ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SE
COASTAL WATERS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
BASIN E OF 70W N OF 12N. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
BEFORE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD/ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N52W 27N55W
25N61W BECOMING A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 25N73W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG OR NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS OBSERVED TO THE ESE OF THE FRONT...ALONG A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND S
WEST ATLC. THIS FEATURE REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG
27N46W 22N48W 21N56W 21N64W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO NOTED NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED NEAR
27N47. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N
BETWEEN 37W-44W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
E ATLC E ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N27W
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

[cycloneye]

Less rain now forecast,but still with the grounds saturated,we can have flooding events.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1234 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-070945-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-110607T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
1234 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* PULSES OF MOISTURE ARE FORMING IN THE CARIBBEAN AND MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE RAIN HAS
BEEN LIMITED TO THE OCEAN AREAS AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WITH AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES. MODELS ARE
STILL BRINGING IN BETTER MOISTURE TONIGHT HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE
OF THIS RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO...AND ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING STILL EXISTS IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND AT SOME TIME DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS MOST AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL EXPERIENCE
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* FLOODING WILL MAINLY OCCUR ON RIVERS...AND WILL BE MINOR FOR THE
MOST PART...DUE TO THE RIVERS INABILITY OF HANDLING WIDESPREAD
RAINS OVER THEIR BASINS. THE PROBABILITY OF MUDSLIDES IS GREATER
SINCE SOILS REMAIN SOGGY AND PRONE TO SLIPPAGE. THE MAIN THRUST
OF THE RAIN AND THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD AVOID DRIVING THROUGH LOW LYING
AREAS COVERED WITH WATER...AND MOUNTAIN ROADS WITH STEEP CLIFFS ON
ONE SIDE DURING AND JUST AFTER HEAVY RAINS. HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS..HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHIELD OF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOWS
SIGNS OF THINNING AFTER THAT.

AT MID LEVELS...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AT THE
SURFACE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHERLY...VEERING FROM THE SURFACE
AND IS CONTINUING TO BRING COPIOUS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHWEST...BUT WILL STILL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA IN A MOISTURE RICH
SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE SCRUPULOUSLY AVOIDED THE ISLAND OF
PUERTO RICO AND HAVE NOT BEEN HEAVY OVER THE REST OF THE ISLANDS
IN THE AREA. HOWEVER STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING IN THE
FAVORED AREA SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THAT WILL ALLOW HEAVIER RAIN TO
FALL IN THE AREA...OVER THE ISLANDS...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE GFS HAS BEEN
OVER DOING JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING...INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...THE AMOUNT OF WINDS...THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND. HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY GOOD WITH THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
OVER THE AREA...AND THIS LEAVES US VULNERABLE TO DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE JUST THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
MATERIALIZE. PART OF THOSE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SOME SUN...WHICH
SO FAR WE HAVE LACKED...DUE TO THE HEAVY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THAT HAS BEEN BLOCKING IT. AND THIS HAS BEEN KEY TO THE
LACK OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT...BUT THE GFS HAS ALSO HAD A WESTERLY BIAS IN
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH HUMIDITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
DRYER SLOT SOUTHWEST OF THE MONA CHANNEL...BUT MIMIC RUNS ARE
SHOWING VERY HIGH AND UNIFORM PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE HAS THE POTENTIAL OF CREATING
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT...HENCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
OVER DESPITE THE LACK OF SHOWING OF RAIN SO FAR. THEREFORE WE ARE
CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND THROUGH THE ORIGINAL TIME...TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT USED THE LATEST MOS STATISTICS FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE...AND HAVE LOWERED EXPECTATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
AREA WIDE IN EXPECTATION THAT HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE MIDNIGHT PACKAGE MAY PRESENT SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN
THE MODEL AND TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CAN BE
ADJUSTED THEN. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADD CONSIDERABLE WARMTH TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE NORTHERN COAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER
WEDNESDAY WHEN 90S WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT
THE REMOVAL OF CLOUDS FROM THE AREA WILL GENERATE VERY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH HEAVY RAIN THERE.


&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. AS A RESULT...MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
ALL PR AND VI TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TJSJ/TIST AND TISX.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS
FROM THE SFC TO 5K FEET... BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STRONGLY AS
THE GFS HAD PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED AND HAVE SUPPRESSED WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 16 KTS. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 77 90 / 70 50 50 50
STT 76 86 78 86 / 70 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

PRC015-057-123-133-070215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0202.110606T2223Z-110607T0215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ARROYO PR-GUAYAMA PR-SALINAS PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-
623 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ARROYO...GUAYAMA...SALINAS AND SANTA ISABEL

* UNTIL 1015 PM AST

* AT 620 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. RAINFALL RATES UP TO HALF INCH IN JUST 30 MINUTES
HAVE BEEN MEASURED WITH THESE SHOWERS IN PONCE. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAIN WILL CAUSE QUICK FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1797 6646 1804 6642 1800 6632 1809 6622
1804 6614 1812 6608 1805 6610 1803 6604
1790 6601 1789 6640

$$

ROSA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Sun-2pmET Mon) for
Mon Jun 6 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 34.0C 93F 0.3mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.4C 85F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.0C 86F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.5C 87F

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.8C 86F 8.2mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 28.6C 84F 36.0mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.2C 85F 7.0mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 33.0C 91F 7.0mm
LE Lamentin, Martinique 31.3C 88F 5.2mm
LeRaizet, Guadeloupe 30.1C 86F 10.0mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.6C 84F 9.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.7C 86F
San Juan, PR 218.9C 84F 4.1mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.6C 87F 37.5mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.2C 86F trace
Miami, FL 32.2C 90F
Nassau, Bahamas 30.3C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 25.2C 77F 0.3mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
741 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

VIC020-030-070245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0204.110606T2341Z-110607T0245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
741 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 1045 PM AST

* AT 35 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THESE
ISLANDS. RAINFALL RATES UP TO HALF INCH IN JUST 30 MINUTES
ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAIN WILL CAUSE QUICK FLOODING IN GUST AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1828 6472 1826 6476 1827 6499 1830 6506
1841 6509 1843 6485 1840 6475

$$

SANCHEZ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
732 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

PRC069-085-095-103-109-129-151-070230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0203.110606T2332Z-110607T0230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN LORENZO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-NAGUABO PR-
HUMACAO PR-YABUCOA PR-
732 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
SAN LORENZO...LAS PIEDRAS...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...
HUMACAO AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 730 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. RAINFALL RATES UP TO HALF INCH IN JUST 30 MINUTES
ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAIN WILL CAUSE QUICK FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1796 6596 1815 6603 1820 6570 1804 6577
1801 6581

$$

SANCHEZ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Macrocane]

COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN AT LEAST ONE MONTH IN SOME CENTRAL AMERICAN LOCATIONS

Today was a very cloudy day in most of Central America thanks to the lows in the EPAC, Caribbean and the monsoon trough. That produced cool maximum temperatures in several locations, some of them were the coolest highs in at least one month.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.2°C (50.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.9°C (55.2°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.4°C (56.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.5°C (65.3°F) Coolest since May 5.
San Miguel, El Salvador 29.9°C (85.8°F) Coolest since April 23.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.8°C (76.6°F) Coolest since May 6.
Liberia, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.1°C (64.6°F) Coolest for 2011.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC015-035-057-069-095-109-129-151-070330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0052.110607T0041Z-110607T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
841 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CAYEY
SAN LORENZO
ARROYO
PATILLAS
MAUNABO
GUAYAMA
HUMACAO
YABUCOA

* UNTIL 1230 AM AST

* AT 936 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED
TO INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WARNED AREA. SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN, AND AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1793 6616 1807 6615 1811 6582 1805 6581
1800 6583 1800 6587 1796 6592 1796 6599
1797 6602 1795 6604 1796 6608 1793 6614

$$

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC015-035-057-069-095-109-129-151-070330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0051.110607T0040Z-110607T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
840 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CAYEY
SAN LORENZO
ARROYO
PATILLAS
MAUNABO
GUAYAMA
HUMACAO
YABUCOA

* UNTIL 1230 AM AST

* AT 936 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED
TO INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WARNED AREA. SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN, AND AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1793 6616 1807 6615 1811 6582 1805 6581
1800 6583 1800 6587 1796 6592 1796 6599
1797 6602 1795 6604 1796 6608 1793 6614

$$

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 PM AST MON JUN 6 2011

.UPDATE...THE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH PUERTO RICO...INDUCING THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES FOR MUNICIPALITIES ALONG SOUTH PART OF THE ISLAND. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE NAM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATED A WET
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
CREATING HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT AND FOR THAT REASON THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE ARE CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. AS A RESULT...MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS ALL PR AND VI TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TJSJ/TIST AND
TISX. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS
FROM THE SFC TO 5K FEET... BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.