ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[ronjon]

Latest 12Z GFS takes the weak low through the Yuc straits and into the central GOM. What is interesting, is that 200 mb shear drops dramatically in the eastern GOM after 96 hrs. Not sayin that this low will hang around till then, but if it did, upper level conditions improve in the GOM 4-5 days out.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks artist for your input. Always appreciated!

[tolakram]

Looking at the latest MIMIC-TPW loop



Center of the large sloppy circulation might be relocated significantly south of where the invest is currently located. No prediction if this means anything, I have no clue, just an observation.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10% PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[wxman57]

Take a look at a water vapor loop, folks. The upper-level low is already in the north-central Gulf. I don't see anything in the NW Caribbean to move into the Gulf. That upper low should remain nearly stationary across the north-central Gulf through about Sunday. The NAM does bring a piece of energy northward out of the Caribbean around the eastern side of the upper low in the Gulf on Thursday, but it's not bringing an upper low out of the Caribbean.

Oh, and Bones has an announcement:

[Sanibel]

The system is trying to pull it in and consolidate while being synoptically crushed and sheared.

[tailgater]

Wxman 57 I know it's forecast to move northwest or north but it looks like it stuck down there near the NIC\Hond. border for now, where conditions are marginal, so I think it might be a little early for BONES.
The strongest vorticity in a while and pretty far south.


Pressure at the nearest buoy is about the same as yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 94, 2011060718, , BEST, 0, 178N, 816W, 20, 1007, DB

winds down to 20 knots

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 071818
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1818 UTC TUE JUN 7 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110607 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110607  1800   110608  0600   110608  1800   110609  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.8N  81.6W   18.3N  82.4W   18.9N  83.3W   19.4N  84.2W
BAMD    17.8N  81.6W   19.4N  80.1W   21.5N  78.8W   23.8N  77.6W
BAMM    17.8N  81.6W   18.9N  81.0W   20.2N  81.0W   21.7N  81.0W
LBAR    17.8N  81.6W   18.5N  80.9W   19.4N  80.5W   20.3N  80.0W
SHIP        20KTS          20KTS          20KTS          20KTS
DSHP        20KTS          20KTS          20KTS          20KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110609  1800   110610  1800   110611  1800   110612  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.8N  84.9W   20.8N  85.9W   22.3N  87.3W   24.4N  89.4W
BAMD    26.3N  76.9W   30.9N  76.5W   34.1N  76.1W   35.8N  72.2W
BAMM    23.3N  81.1W   26.0N  81.7W   28.1N  83.5W   29.7N  85.0W
LBAR    21.0N  79.6W   22.3N  78.9W   24.5N  77.9W   26.5N  76.3W
SHIP         0KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
DSHP         0KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.8N LONCUR =  81.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =   0KT
LATM12 =  18.0N LONM12 =  81.8W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  17.6N LONM24 =  81.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[ronjon]

NWS Tampa AFD:

THE WILDCARD IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO
DEVELOP ANYTHING AND MOVES IT WELL WEST OF THE AREA. EITHER
WAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD BRING
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE AREA AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDINESS.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST NUDGED POPS UP AND TWEAKED TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARDS. CONSIDERING THIS NAM SOLUTION IS REGARDED AS AN OUTLIER
AND DISCOUNTED BY THE PMDHMD...WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION.

[chrisnnavarre]

Same ole broad low still turning in generally the same location, i.e. southwest of Jamaica. Don't think it's done yet, and if it's still there late tomorrow into Friday morning then it may come back to be a player in the Gulf. The tropics can be really unpredictable this time of year as well as in Sep./Oct.

[HURAKAN]

latest satellite and suface obs

[Frank2]

THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD BRING FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE AREA AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDINESS.

Must be the rain I smelled yesterday morning (lol)...

It does work - last time I smelled rain (April) we had a whopper of a thunderstorm about 12 hours later - the RH was definitely on the increase yesterday morning, but has since lowered again (rats)...

Frank

[AdamFirst]

This thing is decrepit...I'm not as hopeful for rain to the CONUS as I was yesterday...

[supercane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ITS PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[plasticup]

Not sure why everyone is talking about the Gulf. It just can't reach it. But CMC and GFS show some of the energy pinching off and traveling northeast, between Bermuda and the States, as a fairly significant system. If it does move that far north there is still the possibility of subtropical development.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It's off the NHC site. 94L is dead. We should get some needed rain here in South Fl from the moisture left over.

[HURAKAN]

it's still there

[cycloneye]

Down to 0%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN TO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THIS
SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

And the end for this invest has arrived.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren
FSTDA
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040
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201106081204
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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