EPAC: ADRIAN - Tropical Depression

[KWT]

Interesting to see the NHC are ramping this up fairly fast. Its got a good structure but really the convection still isn't that great on the SE side and there is no real central convection either, until that develops think the NHC maybe being a little overzealous.

[HURAKAN]

great circulation

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Tropical Storm Adrian at 8 PM PDT.

EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[supercane]

Don't see how NHC is being overzealous on anything, KWT. There's a clear circulation as shown by ASCAT, and they've been playing it by the Dvorak classifications. Organization has slowly improved throughout the day. Latest Dvorak classification from SSD supports the (likely) decision to upgrade to TS strength.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/2345 UTC 11.3N 100.3W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing over the center

[cycloneye]

NRL already added the name Adrian.

[Macrocane]

Yep! convection increasing near the center and on the latest visible you can see the center tightening, I can tell why they named it.

[HURAKAN]

CIMSS also has TS Adrian already

[supercane]

Of course both CIMSS and NRL do, as presumptively each site's web pages are automatically updated from the ATCF, which has 1-E as a TS with a name of Adrian. Other sites (e.g., the banner here, Weather Underground, and NHC itself) wait for storm advisories to be issued first.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 080242
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011

...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN....


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 100.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND
ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
SINCE THAT TIME...INCREASED ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...WITH EVIDENCE OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE ON 0104
UTC SSMI/S IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40
KT...MAKING THIS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEASON.

ADRIAN HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 300/3. THE CYCLONE IS
CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THIS CHANGE IN
STEERING SHOULD RESULT IN ADRIAN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH CLOSER TO MEXICO BEFORE MAKING THAT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIASES OF THOSE
MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET
MODELS.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR NEAR ADRIAN WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C
ALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY. INDEED THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR
AGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME
PENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING
MECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
INTENSIFICATION...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...ADRIAN SHOULD BE OVER
COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THIS TIME.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 11.8N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 12.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 13.0N 101.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 13.9N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 14.5N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 15.5N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[supercane]

As the NHC noted in the 03Z advisory, Adrian may possibly rapidly intensify. Here is the relevant output from the rapid intensification index based on SHIPS output:

Code: Select all

   ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011     ADRIAN 06/08/11  00 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   3.4 Range: 17.0 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  17.0 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  53.4 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 127.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  81.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  68.2 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    64% is   5.5 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    59% is   7.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    47% is   8.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    47% is  17.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

[CrazyC83]

How intense will this get I wonder? Hurricane Adrian seems likely for sure at least...

[Hurricane Jed]

How intense will this get I wonder? Hurricane Adrian seems likely for sure at least...

Saw on Weather Channel the projected path and that they expect a peak of 100 mph. Based on what everyone else is saying about this possibly rapidly intensifying I'm leaning towards 115-120 mph.

[supercane]

As the Weather Channel graphics note, they use the NHC forecast for their forecast wind intensities:

As an aside, it also seems that TWC is using a new technique for their track cones, as their previous tracks did not have that circular appearance.

Right now, the latest wind probability table for NHC still favors a maximum intensity in the Cat 1 range compared to similar forecasts in the past...

...but given the current trend this may be an underestimate. Time will tell.

[CrazyC83]

Eyewall trying to develop?

[KWT]

Certainly much improved over the last 12hrs Crazy if nothing else. Does look like an eyewall of some sorts, though could just as easily be some dry air still circulating around, will need to see how it develops in the next 6-12hrs.

I see no reason why this won't become a hurricane.

[supercane]

Agree with both of you that it could represent a nascent eyewall. Here's a higher res microwave from around the same time:

Will be interesting to see SSD's next Dvorak numbers.

[supercane]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 080841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

...ADRIAN STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 100.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND ADRIAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 080841
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
0900 UTC WED JUN 08 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.9W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.9W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 100.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.6N 101.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.1N 103.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.7N 104.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 080842
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ADRIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...WITH INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND AN OUTER BAND OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT
FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/4. ADRIAN IS
CURRENTLY IN A COL REGION NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF ADRIAN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 H OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. WHILE GENERALLY
AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE. THE GFDL...HWRF...NOGAPS...AND FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
BRING ADRIAN NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BEFORE TURNING IT PARALLEL TO
THE COAST. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET KEEP THE STORM FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE
SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL
POSITION...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT LIES TO THE LEFT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADRIAN IS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 30C...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 H. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF 30 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 H...AND A 77 PERCENT CHANCE OF 40 KT OF STRENGTHENING.
A NEGATIVE FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
STORM...WHICH THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM AFTER
24 H. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING FOR
THE FIRST 24 H...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER STRENGTHENING RATE FROM 24-48
H IN ANTICIPATION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
AFTER 48 H...DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 12.0N 100.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 12.6N 101.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.1N 103.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 14.7N 104.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 080841
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
0900 UTC WED JUN 08 2011

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

Code: Select all

VALID TIME   18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       3       9
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       1       2       5      24
TROPICAL STORM  70      21      12      12      18      39      52
HURRICANE       30      79      87      88      80      54      15
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       29      60      43      36      39      36      13
HUR CAT 2        2      15      28      26      23      12       1
HUR CAT 3        X       4      13      21      14       6       1
HUR CAT 4        X       1       3       5       4       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       1       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   60KT    75KT    85KT    90KT    90KT    80KT    60KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)         
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - - 

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)   4(19)   1(20)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   4(19)   1(20)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

L CARDENAS     34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)   6(21)   2(23)   1(24)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   5(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)

ACAPULCO       34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)

P MALDONADO    34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   7(25)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

06z SHIPS run is taking the RI almost overboard: 80% chance of 25 and 30 kt RI; 77% chance of 35 and 40 kt RI.

[Chacor]

EP, 01, 2011060812, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1009W, 55, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 40, 40, 70, 1008, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
EP, 01, 2011060812, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1009W, 55, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,