EPAC: ADRIAN - Tropical Depression

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good

[HURAKAN]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 100.8W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 081442
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ADRIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH
A WELL-DEFINED LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN THREE-QUARTERS
OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55
KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC...BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE
CONVECTIVE BAND HAS GAINED CURVATURE AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR
THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.

A 1059 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED WHAT MIGHT BE THE BEGINNING OF A BANDED
EYE FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS JOGGED NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/5.
ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. A GENERAL
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT...OR NORTH...MAINLY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION.
THIS PUTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSER TO...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT
OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION APPEARS VERY LIKELY AS ADRIAN STILL LIES
OVER ABOUT 30C WATERS AND IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND SHOWS
ADRIAN INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN MORE
SLOWLY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...ADRIAN WILL BE MOVING
OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.

DUE TO THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 12.9N 100.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.5N 101.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 14.2N 102.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.9N 103.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 15.5N 104.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 16.5N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 18.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Extratropical94]

Updated forecast cone with tropical storm watch

[HURAKAN]

why doesn't it show the forecast track?

[dexterlabio]

Looking really good

Wow, a good looking system right there! I won't be surprised for a Hurricane Adrian anytime soon.

[HURAKAN]

continues to look very impressive, should be a hurricane in the next 5 to 11 hours

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 081738
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

...ADRIAN ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 101.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ADRIAN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...HOWEVER ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Blown Away]

Adrian starting to take shape and looking pretty good. Nice start to the EPAC season.

[KWT]

Looks like a classic system that has been injesting dry air but has had such strong circulation and such good other conditions that it has gone ahead and rapidly strengthened anyway.

Typically that presentation struggles to go much beyond 75kts but then again there is absolutly nothing to say it won't finally mix out the dry air thats still getting through to the core and if it does then the NHC will be bang on the money IMO.

Should be a hurricane soon I'd have thought!

[supercane]

KWT, not so sure that the hole represents dry air (which is farther to the west) as much as it is a reflection of the system's initial lopsidedness and difficulty wrapping convection all around the NE quadrant. It looks to me more like the slow to organize systems caught in the monsoon trough in the West Pac.

Per the atcf best track, Adrian did rapidly intensify by 30 kt from a TD at 18Z yesterday to a 60 kt storm today. Looks like the rapid part may be over, however, if the latest SHIPS output is to be believed:

** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/08/11 18 UTC **

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

[Extratropical94]

1800Z best track

EP, 01, 2011060818, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1013W, 60, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 45, 45, 75, 1008, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
EP, 01, 2011060818, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1013W, 60, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 35, 25, 25, 35, 1008, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,

[supercane]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 082038
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT
ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
IS NOT YET COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE BANDING...AS SEEN IN
INFRARED IMAGES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

AFTER JOGGING NORTHWARD EARLIER...ADRIAN APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED...330/7. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK MODELS
REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS
AND GFDL MODELS SHOWING ADRIAN TURNING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. CONVERSELY...
THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND TAKE THE
CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS HAS SLOWED TODAY...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS ADRIAN REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. STEADY...OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION...IS LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS ADRIAN REMAINS OVER WATERS OF 29-30
C AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES ADRIAN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.
THE COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 13.5N 101.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.1N 102.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 14.8N 103.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.4N 104.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.9N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 18.5N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 082037
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
2100 UTC WED JUN 08 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 101.6W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 85NE 120SE 55SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 101.6W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 101.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.1N 102.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 65SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.8N 103.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.9N 105.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 101.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 082037
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

...ADRIAN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 101.6W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 082037
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
2100 UTC WED JUN 08 2011

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

Code: Select all

VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       3      16
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       1       2      11      35
TROPICAL STORM   8       8       6       9      21      55      44
HURRICANE       92      92      94      90      77      31       5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       79      48      30      34      40      24       5
HUR CAT 2       11      33      35      28      22       5       1
HUR CAT 3        2      10      24      22      12       2       X
HUR CAT 4        X       2       5       6       3       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   75KT    85KT    95KT    95KT    90KT    70KT    50KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

<snipped to save space>

[MGC]

Very close to hurricane...just has to mix out that dry air near the circulation center....should be a hurricane soon. Has the look to possibly become a major before moving over cooler waters......MGC

[HURAKAN]

Burst of convection over the center

[HURAKAN]

..ADRIAN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 102.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

...ADRIAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 102.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN

[CrazyC83]

Official forecast is now for it to reach Category 3 intensity (I hate the term "major hurricane" since all hurricanes are extremely dangerous). Seems reasonable to me.

[Battlebrick]

Dvorak hinting at RI.. Raw T# is at 5.9.