20% Bahamas - Hybrid?

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GCANE
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20% Bahamas - Hybrid?

#1 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 08, 2011 1:17 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011



THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD/DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING ITS
AXIS SW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND SW ATLC SUPPORTING A SERIES OF
SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDING FROM
30N53W TO 26N56W...THE SECOND ONE FROM 25N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N71W...AND A THIRD ONE EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE GENERATING A BROAD/ELONGATED AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING ALONG 32N48W 25N55W 21N66W
21N73W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION COVERS
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ANTHE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA
...EASTERN CUBA...AND PUERTO RICO S OF 23N E OF 57W. ACCORDING
TO MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN COULD INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
TO THE WEST OF THIS BROAD
AREA OF WEATHER...SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC
AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N75W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N27. THIS FEATURE IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA E OF 45W.


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Last edited by GCANE on Fri Jun 10, 2011 6:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TWD: Area N of PR. Possible ST.

#2 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 08, 2011 1:20 pm

Globals also consistent with spinning up an ET in the Bahamas Friday.


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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 08, 2011 1:40 pm

A lot of shear, but it wouldn't be the first time!
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Re:

#4 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 08, 2011 1:51 pm

HURAKAN wrote:A lot of shear, but it wouldn't be the first time!



There must be some small anti-cyclone north of PR.

Looks like it is about the center of rotation on the WV loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html
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Re: TWD: Area N of PR. Possible ST.

#5 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 08, 2011 3:50 pm

Convection firing a 22N 62W looks interesting.

Over the 850mb vorticity center and inside a small low-shear area.



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Re: TWD: Area N of PR. Possible ST.

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 08, 2011 4:20 pm

The 18z surface analysis adds the new low.

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Re: TWD: Area N of PR. Possible ST.

#7 Postby TYNI » Wed Jun 08, 2011 4:35 pm

Are we hinting we'll have another invest in the next 24 hours ("THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN COULD INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.")?
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Re: TWD: Area N of PR. Possible ST.

#8 Postby TheBurn » Wed Jun 08, 2011 6:12 pm

2215Z

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Re: TWD: Area N of PR. Possible ST.

#9 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 08, 2011 6:36 pm

TYNI wrote:Are we hinting we'll have another invest in the next 24 hours ("THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN COULD INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.")?


"cyclonegenes" is the formation of a low pressure system

"Cyclone:
An atmospheric closed circulation rotating counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere."

It doesn't necessarily mean that it will be an invest
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Re: TWD: Area N of PR. Possible ST.

#10 Postby ColdFusion » Wed Jun 08, 2011 7:56 pm

A side note about the weather in Miami. It's not the humidity that sucks - It's the HEAT.

(just messin with ya Hurakan)
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Re: TWD: Area N of PR. Possible ST.

#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 08, 2011 8:02 pm

ColdFusion wrote:A side note about the weather in Miami. It's not the humidity that sucks - It's the HEAT.


Looks like 2006 all over again!! I'm 100% sure the Heat will win.

Back to the system in question!!

Image

latest infrared imagine
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#12 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 08, 2011 8:30 pm

Interesting vorticity NE of P.R., but pressures have been trending upward in past 24 hrs in that area.
The only model support that it has for development is of course the CMC.
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20% Chance for Possible Hybrid Development in Bahamas

#13 Postby GCANE » Fri Jun 10, 2011 6:21 am

Image



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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