Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

This is as our friend ROCK says, Lala-land. So take this as it is 16 days out. GFS shows unsettled weather in the Western Caribbean. Of course,we know the drill.



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[cycloneye]

Again,is very long range,but GFS has a weak lopsided TS in the GOM. We know the drill about these long range runs, so is a wait and see game. Note that the above post has a graphic of the GFS run at 384 hours on the 20th,and this run at 312 hours is also for the 20th.



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[JonathanBelles]

I'm beginning to watch the area around Puerto Rico. A couple models are showing a quick spin up to the NE of PR in the coming days. It should be hit with the same shear as 94L, but I thought I would mention it anyway.

[cycloneye]

Hmmm, what is this that ECMWF is showing comming from the east tracking into the Eastern Caribbean?

6/7/11 12z ECMWF Loop



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[Ivanhater]

00z GFS

[srainhoutx]

Some interesting developments in the long range via the Euro and the GFS as mischief continues to show up on the la la land charts. The Euro suggests a disturbance nearing the Islands in the day 7-10 time frame while the GFS track a weak vort across the Caribbean that begins to develop around the 19-21, +/- a day or two. There are also suggestions the an MJO pulse will arrive near that time, so there may be something to the models sniffing out some development.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing anything to indicate any development for the next few weeks. In fact, June may turn out rather quiet with no storms. 40-day CHI indicating sinking air moving into the western Atlantic Basin now, and it may remain there through June. Ensemble GFS indicating no MJO activity for the next month.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... egfs.shtml

Check out all the MJO models at the link below. No MJO activity reaching the eastern Pacific in June.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml

Sinking air, no MJO for at least the next month, and a weak wave train in the Atlantic should add up to some quiet weeks ahead, perhaps through the 4th of July.

[cycloneye]

There is another graphic that has the MJO entering the Atlantic by the last week of June. Which one is right?

[srainhoutx]

The GFS is less than stellar predicting MJO occurrences, IMO. Trends have been to disregard that 40 day cycle as it has not verified well of late.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: There is another graphic that has the MJO entering the Atlantic by the last week of June. Which one is right?

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO.forecast.olr.png

Luis, I believe that the MJO signal in the graphic you posted is in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific. What you're seeing as far as the OLR anomaly in the East Pac and Caribbean late this month is not an MJO signal. And I'd be very careful believing that graphic. I notice that they took down the verification link on their website. I've compared that particular forecast with the verification for the past few years and have found that much of the time the forecast is exactly opposite of what actually happens. I've been burned by that particular graphic on that web site in the past.

We actually had a conference call with Dr. Wheeler (of the Wheeler diagram) last year to go over it and the MJO signal.

[wxman57]

The GFS is less than stellar predicting MJO occurrences, IMO. Trends have been to disregard that 40 day cycle as it has not verified well of late.

It's not just the GFS, it's every model on the MJO site. They all keep the MJO signal very weak and in the Indian Ocean to West Pac for quite a while.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml

[srainhoutx]

Here is the culprit...

[TYNI]

Looks like the train is being loaded, soon to depart...

[Cainer]

That's a pretty well-developed wave for so early in the season. Interesting that the GFS tries to do something with it. Most likely it'll poof when it fully emerges, but it would be fun to track something similar to 92L from June of last year.

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion from the San Juan NWS about the Eastern Atlantic wave and model scenarios.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
748 PM AST WED JUN 8 2011

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE A NICE DEPICTION OF AN AFRICAN
EASTERLY WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE PASSING ACROSS THE ERN
CARIB NEXT THU JUN 16. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 10N AND 20W. WEAKENING
MJO/NEGATIVE 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE AND TIME OF THE YEAR DO NOT FAVOR ANY TC DEVELOPMENT.
ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS LACK OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE TROP ATLC
AND WRN AFRICA ATTM WHICH TYPICALLY TENDS TO DOMINATE THIS AREA
DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. NESDIS BLENDED TPW IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
TROP ATLC WITH A HIGHER WATER VAPOR CONTENT THAN NORMAL PERHAPS A
HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME LATER THIS HURRICANE SEASON.

[Macrocane]

Very interesting indeed. If 1996 and 2008 are analogs I wouldn't be surprised to see early Cape Verde activity like the Berthas of those seasons.

[LaBreeze]

:uarrow: Looks like the train is being loaded, soon to depart...

"All aboard for points west" - not liking the thought

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is the current (updated daily) SAL graphic:



Speaking of our old friend SAL, he is indeed looking rather sickly for this time of year.

[Ivanhater]

The GFS is still advertising a storm in the Gulf in the long range. It is interesting looking at the evolution of this. A westward moving tropical wave slows in the Western Caribbean as it approaches the Yucatan and rounds the edge of the upper high. The end of June might be interesting.

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[BigB0882]

Is that a sheared system? I see the L and then the heavy precip is all to the north and east. I know details this far out are just fantasy but I am asking because if they see heavy shear in the region then we shouldn't have to worry about anything too major popping up.