WPAC: SARIKA - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

looks like sarika will be born soon. this storm was likely a tropical cyclone while crossing the philippines due to the many warm water that was available.

[Chacor]

Uh... no?

[dexterlabio]

Now a TD accdg to PAGASA, given the name "DODONG".

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "DODONG"
Issued at 12:00 p.m., Thursday 09 June 2011 The low pressure area West of Metro Manila has developed into a tropical depresssion and was named DODONG.
Location of Center:
(as of 11:00 a.m.) 60 km Southwest of Iba, Zambales
Coordinates: 15.1°N, 119.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: North Northwest at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday morning:
210 km West of Laoag City
Saturday morning:
440 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
Bataan
Pampanga
Tarlac
Zambales
Pangasinan
Cavite
Metro Manila
None None


Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

TD Dodong is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring rains over the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today and the hourly updates.

[phwxenthusiast]

hmm, i respectfully disagree... i mean tropical depression possible but a TS while moving across Visayas?? i was consistently checking NAIA's metars and the maximum winds i could find was around 30kph (15kts)... just my opinion

[supercane]

As dexterlabio said, this has been declared TD Dodong by PAGASA. Shipping warning from PAGASA:

WTPH RPMM 090300
TTT WARNING 01

AT 0300 09 JUNE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100300 ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO EAST AND AT 110300 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

[euro6208]

i mean to say that it could have been a tropical cyclone aka depression while over the philippines. sorry to all but that's just my opinion

[phwxenthusiast]

i mean to say that it could have been a tropical cyclone aka depression while over the philippines. sorry to all but that's just my opinion

oops sorry i misread... yeah tropical cyclone it could have been...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Once again geeked out my thoughts on the storm, give storm2k a shout out as well.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqVP-zszBN4[/youtube]

[Grifforzer]

http://www.webcitation.org/5zJ9RzRSL - Advisory
http://www.webcitation.org/5zJ9yqZPG - JMA Prognostic Reasoning

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
15:00 PM JST June 9 2011

Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.3N 119.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

24 HRS: 18.5N 118.0E - 35 knots

Tropical Depression will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will move north northwest for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical Depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final Initial Dvorak Number will be 2.5 after 24 hours

[ManilaTC]

i mean to say that it could have been a tropical cyclone aka depression while over the philippines. sorry to all but that's just my opinion

oops sorry i misread... yeah tropical cyclone it could have been...

I DEFINITELY AGREE, based on the structure as it passed last night and its effects overland, i say it is a TD as it passed... A significant case of intensification over the Visayas is Frank/Fengshen in 2009.

Wind Gust of 53kph? eh?

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 15.7N 119.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 18.9N 117.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[StormingB81]

Sorry I have been on but forgot I started this thread and didn't change the name to reflect the upgrade..sorry!

[euro6208]

I expect Sarika to get upgraded soon. Sarika means Singing bird.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 998.1mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.1

Weakening Flag : OFF

[P.K.]

3rd TS of the year.

WTPQ20 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1103 SARIKA (1103) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 16.5N 117.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 20.9N 117.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 111800UTC 26.0N 118.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared image ... neat-looking system

[supercane]

JTWC 21Z advisory out:
WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.1N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.4N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.6N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.2N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 117.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 091628Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A FORMATIVE BANDING EYE FEATURE WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE TRMM MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, KNES, AND PGTW RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS,
BASED ON A 091351Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
AND 40 NOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. TS SARIKA IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>28
DEGREES CELSIUS), MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL OVER THE LUZON STRAIGHT AND AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. REMNANTS
OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. WBAR AND GFDN REMAIN THE
WESTERN OUTLIERS, TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARD HONG KONG, AND
JGSM AND GFS REMAIN THE EASTERN OUTLIERS DEPICTING A SHARPER RE-
CURVATURE. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z,
101500Z AND 102100Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED INFLOW INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 091231Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER
LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOCATED TO THE NORTH IS CURRENTLY
INHIBITING CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TD 05W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN WILL BEGIN TURNING
MORE POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER CHINA AFTER TAU 36 AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF RECURVATURE AND WBAR ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE
SYSTEM WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD. GFS IS
QUICKEST TO RECURVE THE SYSTEM AS IT PREDICTS A DEEPER TROUGH TO
MODIFY THE STEERING RIDGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER RECURVATURE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

not my fault this time I was sleeping...lol

[RobWESTPACWX]

Some of my thoughts again here, thanks for letting me post these here again storm2k! The videos have really helped me develop and feedback here always helps. Last weekend I had a meet and greet with NHK world, so you never know, you may see me on TV here soon!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aA_amRJMD0[/youtube]

[HURAKAN]

strong shear impacting the system, exposed

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1103 SARIKA (1103)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 18.9N 117.6E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 22.3N 117.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 120000UTC 26.0N 118.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =



WTPQ30 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 1103 SARIKA (1103)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

TPPN10 PGTW 100027
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (SARIKA)
B. 09/2332Z
C. 18.9N
D. 117.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .20
YIELDS A 1.0 DT ON LOG 10 SPIRAL. MET AND PT YIELD A 1.5. DBO
PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH