EPAC: ADRIAN - Tropical Depression

[Ptarmigan]

I knew Adrian would be a major hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

Latest .. very impressive

[Macrocane]

It looks like it is still intensifying, if it reaches category five it would be a very rare occurrence, 2 Junes in a row with cat 5's.

[Hurricane Jed]

It looks like it is still intensifying, if it reaches category five it would be a very rare occurrence, 2 Junes in a row with cat 5's.

Not to mention a Category 5 hurricane 3 straight years.

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 125 kt right now. My guess for the pressure is 941mb.

[Bobo2000]

For right now I think it's at 130-135 knots. It probably will reach a high end Category 4, but maybe not Category 5.


___________________________
Do you Smell what he is COOKING?

[arkestra]

It looks the Pacific has more annular hurricanes than the Atlantic:
2006: Daniel
2008: Felicia
2011: Adrian

The last annular hurricane in Atlantic is supposed to be
2005: Epsilon

[KWT]

It looks very impressive right now, looks a high end cat-4 to me at the moment, say 130kts.

[HURAKAN]

wow, very impressive microwave image

[leanne_uk]

Wow what a stunning system!

[Chacor]

Will be interesting to see what the 12z ATCF does. Looks like it may have strengthened since the last advisory. Eye seems to be more symmetrical and slightly smaller.

[Chacor]

For the record on annularity, here are the official criteria for a storm to pass the screening stage of the objective annular hurricane index. If a storm passes all the requirements, annularity is assessed by the forecaster.

Storm intensity (NHC analysis) greater than 84 kt.
Sea-surface temperatures greater than 24.3°C but less than 29.1°C.
Vertical shear (NCEP analysis) is less than 21.97 kt.
200 hPa winds (NCEP analysis) less than 2.92 kt positive vector; greater than 22.94 kt negative vector
Flux convergence (NCEP analysis) greater than 9 m/second-day negative vector; less than 11 m/second-day positive vector (where 1 m/s-day = 0.0000115740741 m / s-2)
Eye radius (sat imagery) greater than 50 km
Eye temperature (sat imagery) greater than 15°C.

http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc07/Presentations ... macher.ppt

Whilst having no rainbands is listed as a typical characteristic, it is actually not a requirement for annularity.

[HURAKAN]

ACE:

[Chacor]

Officially, ATCF best-track shows that Adrian weakened 2 hPa since 06z, no change in winds.

EP, 01, 2011061012, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1072W, 120, 948, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 70, 80, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
EP, 01, 2011061012, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1072W, 120, 948, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 50, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
EP, 01, 2011061012, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1072W, 120, 948, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,

[HURAKAN]

Impressive water vapor image

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[Cyclenall]

Looks to be about 125 kt right now. My guess for the pressure is 941mb.

I agree with this intensity.

Chalk up another annular hurricane for the Epac huh? I wasn't expecting it but the fact its the first named system of the season and annular is interesting. Isn't this the first "first" named storm of the Epac season to reach CAT4 strength since Hurricane Adolph of 2001?

For the record on annularity, here are the official criteria for a storm to pass the screening stage of the objective annular hurricane index. If a storm passes all the requirements, annularity is assessed by the forecaster.

Storm intensity (NHC analysis) greater than 84 kt.

I think Hurricane Epsilon put that one to bed.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE STILL CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT EYE
AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE EYE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE
DECREASED...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. WITH NO
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ANTICIPATED...THE INTERACTION OF THE
CYCLONE WITH THE STRONG SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE
THE MAIN CAUSE FOR ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS SUGGESTED BY SOME
MODELS LIKE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF.

ADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING
PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE...THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS UNTIL
DISSIPATION. IF ADRIAN REMAINS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT COULD
ACQUIRE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGARDLESS...ADRIAN STILL WILL BE A WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVING OVER
COOL WATERS WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 15.3N 107.6W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.6N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 16.0N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 16.3N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 16.8N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

Yeah looks to have peaked. I would say peak intensity was at 0600Z and that was 125 kt.

[vbhoutex]

As an admin I am asking all of our very learned(and I mean it as I say it)posters to add a little more "beef" to your comments and observations for those that are not as learned as you are. The comments make sense to many of us on the site, but may not to those who are newer to tropical weather and weather in general. Simply saying "I don't think it will make CAT5" is fine, but why not explain why you don't think it will make it? This is not to single out anyone, it is just an example. Please be mindful that we have thousands of members and many of them are not as learned about the weather as you may be. One of our goals at S2K is to EDUCATE EVERYONE ABOUT THE WEATHER. Doing this simple request would be helpful in that aspect. Thanks for your help.