2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[Flyinman]

I received 16 drops of rain today. Watched a storm move this direction then fizzle overhead. I do find it a bit encouraging even though high pressure is around it is still trying to rain. Hopefully the moisture will eventually win the war.

[vbhoutex]

Wow, for once I got more than you. We had a shower that lasted long enough to wet the roads. It was a gullywasher of 0.05". I think that brings me to 0.09" for the month so far.

Edit-Oops, I remembered wrong. We are up to o.11" for the month, all in one week too.

[southerngale]

Sorry, guys. And no rain in sight...

[Dave]

2.75" at my house in the past 24 hrs in thunderstorms.....now you ask where the rain is? Take it from me please we've had enough...again! More on the way in from IL for this afternoon. But...tomorrow...75 degrees & sunshine!! Ever think about moving to Indiana? IF so you need to see a psychiatrist.

[Shoshana]

The rain bands need to leave where they are and come vacation in AZ, NM,TX and LA for a while, at least till we can catch up.

[vbhoutex]

What a lovely forecast for the near to long range here in SE TX and for that matter TX in general. No rain with no rain and no rain along with no rain and triple digit temperatures coming back this week too along with no rain. Oh did I mention that the models show no rain for the next 168 hours +?
Currently 94F and sunny. 100 before the afternoon is over would not be a surprise.

[srainhoutx]

While we are searching for any news of any rain chances, there is a bit of good news via the GFS. That model is suggesting a bit of a shift S of the Upper Ridge and the GFS has been hinting for days of some disturbed weather taking shape in the Bay of Campeche in the longer range. One thing of note is the increased deep tropical moisture that most models are depicting building N from the Caribbean in the medium range. Now that we are nearing mid June, just perhaps this is not some model fantasy and we may well be headed into the timeframe later in June when eyes will turn to the tropics for some badly needed moisture to help ease our rainfall deficits. Fingers Crossed.

[Rgv20]

Just posted this on central texas thread.

GFS continues to advertise a disturbance around late June in the Western Caribbean or Bay Of Campeche.

06-12-2011 12zGFS


0zECMWFENS by day 10 break down the ridge and that may allow whatever moisture that is in the BOC to creep up to Texas.

[Flyinman]

I am going to Crystal Beach Friday and staying during the timeframe of the models. The last several years we have been down there it has rained. While I take no credit in this, I am willing to sacrifice my vacation for rain. Our beach house is literally getting sand blasted due to the dry and windy conditions.

Fingers crossed hear as well as it seems like the model runs have consistently brought back substantial moisture to the Gulf it just seems a crap shoot as to where the moisture will end up.

Oh and currently showing 97 here. I have covered up the plants as this drastic drop in temps has put them in winter mode

[vbhoutex]

Oh and currently showing 97 here. I have covered up the plants as this drastic drop in temps has put them in winter mode

I know what you mean. I thought I was going to have to bring out the covers too. Very concerned about frost burn!

Looks like back into the frying pan this week. 101F for a high today here in W. Houston.

[PTrackerLA]

Long Range outlook looks downright awful for rain chances. We have essentially not chance for the next seven days and the GFS doesn't look promising either. Looks like the summer of heat and drought is upon us, our only hope may be tropical systems...

[StormClouds63]

From Lake Charles National Weather Service Office:

WHAT CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AT SURFACE BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE MOISTURE
DEPTH HAS BEEN DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBLEM CONTINUES AND REMAINS THE 700MB
RIDGE ALOFT IS BLOCKING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SE TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AND MOVE INLAND. UNLESS OR UNTIL THIS
RIDGE MOVES OR BREAKS DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REAL PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE MORE THAN HOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN AND
GENERALLY GETS ERODED FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST AS STORMS SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT. BUT LOOKING AT ALL THE MODELS...THERE
IS NO INDICATION THAT THIS PATTERN IS ANYWHERE NEAR BREAKING.

BEAUMONT HAS RECEIVED ONLY 6.65 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR.
THEY ARE CURRENTLY AT 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. NORMAL
IS AROUND 25.15 INCHES FROM JANUARY 1ST.

ALEXANDRIA HAS RECEIVED 12.12 INCHES AND STANDS AT 42 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE NORMAL 30 YEAR CLIMATE IS 29.05 INCHES SINCE JANUARY
1ST.

LAFAYETTE HAS RECEIVED 13.03 INCHES FOR THE YEAR AND STANDS AT 47
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LAFAYETTE NORMS ARE 27.31 INCHES.

LAKE CHARLES...HAS RECEIVED THE MOST IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AT
14.69 INCHES AND IS AT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE YEAR.

BUT THIS DOES NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY AND THAT IS WE HAVE BEEN IN
THIS DROUGHT FOR OVER A YEAR
.

[vbhoutex]

Another day of triple digit temperatures and no rain. We are expecting this the whole week. Normally we will have on average 5 days of triple digits each year. Today I think we are already at 6 days at or above 100F. Gonna be a lllllooooonnnnnngggggg HHHHHOOOOOOOTTTTTTTT Summer.

[Ptarmigan]

Another day of triple digit temperatures and no rain. We are expecting this the whole week. Normally we will have on average 5 days of triple digits each year. Today I think we are already at 6 days at or above 100F. Gonna be a lllllooooonnnnnngggggg HHHHHOOOOOOOTTTTTTTT Summer.

This is even worse than 2009 and 1998 and they did not hot that early. I think this could be like 1980 again.

[vbhoutex]

Another day of triple digit temperatures and no rain. We are expecting this the whole week. Normally we will have on average 5 days of triple digits each year. Today I think we are already at 6 days at or above 100F. Gonna be a lllllooooonnnnnngggggg HHHHHOOOOOOOTTTTTTTT Summer.

This is even worse than 2009 and 1998 and they did not hot that early. I think this could be like 1980 again.

I checked my thermometer and we hit 101.3F here at the house today. I am not liking the way this summer seems to be shaking out. We are having August weather in June temperature wise. If this pattern doesn't break soon I suspect we will be breaking some records this summer. In fact I have heard two of our local OCMs say that they think our records including the all time high of 109F are in jeopardy. We've already broken at least one with our back to back 105F days in June. We don't see 105F that often in Houston and to see two in a row in June is almost scary. The temps are, of course, only part of the problem. We are in exceptional drought also with our deficit approaching 20" since October. Unfortunately when this type of pattern establishes itself the heat and the drought seem to tend to perpetuate each other until there is some sort of extreme wet weather event to break it. I would much prefer to see us gradually break this drought and drop these temps back to a more normal 90F. 90F is still hot, but at least you don't feel like you are stepping into an oven when you go outside.

[Flyinman]

I will begin holding my breath Sunday for a pattern change. The models sure seem to be digging into some moisture in the Gulf next week. We will just have to see where it ends up.

[StormClouds63]

The only good thing about that miserably hot summer of 1980 was that the strong high pressure that anchored itself over the region protected the northwest Gulf Coast from big, bad Hurricane Allen.

[SETXWXLADY]

The locals are looking at the models too.

Dry weather pattern continues...
By Anya Sehgal


Forecast Discussion

Tuesday June 14, 2011

High pressure will be the rule of our weather pattern over the next several days. The presence of the high, which science calls a "heat ridge", resulted in very hot temperatures and dry conditions. Many locations in and around the Triangle will be flirting with the 100 degree mark, some breaking records, for each of the next six or seven days.The forecast for SE TX will be unchanged through the next ten days. The computer model outlooks are intolerable for Texas, implying no rain and enough surface moisture to make the heat of the day unbearable.

We are in dire need of rainfall. We are now -18.73 inches below average in terms of yearly rainfall totals. In fact the Climate Predication Center says we need over 15 inches of rainfall to solve our severe drought over SETX. It doesn't look like we are going to see any appreciable rainfall in the short term. However, some of the long-range computer models are indicating that a tropical disturbance will bring our region that badly needed rain until -maybe- June 23 or 24

The tropics are quiet for now, with a disturbance east of the Windward Islands the only feature worth watching by the end of June.

12 News HD Storm Team Meteorologist Ayna Sehgal

[Flyinman]

While we are not exactly on the correct side of this parts of Southeast Texas and Louisiana may receive some much needed rainfall from this system if it develops as advertised. The models have been going back and forth between the majority of the moisture going into Central Louisiana or near Galveston. We will just wait and see.

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/9586/gfsten288l.gif

[jasons2k]

Hey everyone - the situation is getting extremely dire for us. The trees up here north of town are in a desperate situation. There are whole stands of pines now that have turned brown and are dying off. I've also seen a large number of oaks, especially white oaks, that are also turning completely brown. At the front of my neighborhood there is a tree buffer between some houses and the main road. The entire buffer (mostly pines with a few oaks) has now turned brown. I'm afraid the whole section will need to be chopped down.

Un-irrigated shrubs are toast too.

I think it's even worse than what the media is reporting. There was an article a couple of days ago in the Chron describing how trees in the Memorial Park area are starting to show signs of stress. It's much worse than that. There are many many trees in Memorial park that are already well past the point of no return.

I'm really concerned that if we don't get some meaningful rain soon, this plus the beetle infestation later this summer will kill off such an enormous amount of trees it will permanently alter the landscape for many years. It's a very sad, helpless feeling to see this happen.