EPAC: ADRIAN - Tropical Depression

[HURAKAN]

continues to have a very well-defined eyewall, very impressive

[Bobo2000]

Looks like an annular hurricane despite the forecast of weakening quickly.



______________________________________
Do you smell what he is COOKING?

[HURAKAN]

amazing picture!!! wow

Link: http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_re ... Adrian.jpg

[Frank2]

Great photo - enlarging the photo by clicking on the link is even more impressive...

[KWT]

Yeah not quite as impressive as it was earlier but still probably a low end 4 as the NHC suggests.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF ADRIAN IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
DROPPING. USING A BLEND OF ODT AND THE SUBJECTIVE DATA T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS PROVIDES AN INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND BY LATE
SATURDAY SHOULD BE OVER SUB-26C SSTS AS WELL AS BEING AFFECTED BY
STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE
WINDS DOWN GRADUALLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN WITH WEAKENING AT
A FASTER RATE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT STEERED
PRIMARILY BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND
THE HURRICANE MODELS DRIVEN BY THE GFS...INDICATE A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE SHARPLY TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR AND HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMICS. THIS FORECAST RELIES MORE UPON THE ECMWF...UKMET...
AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER VORTEX MOVING MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN MORE POLEWARD AT THREE AND FOUR DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 15.5N 108.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 15.9N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 16.3N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 16.7N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 17.2N 113.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA

[Bobo2000]

Adrian is losing power quickly, and now it's eye is nearly covered. Looks like a Cat 2 to me



latest image


__________________________________________
Do you Smell what he is COOKING?

[brunota2003]

Looking through the images on NASA GHCC, I give it another 12 hours before all you see left is a remnant low, with intermittent convection poofing up.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chacor]

EP, 01, 2011061100, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1089W, 100, 963, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 70, 60, 70, 1010, 250, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
EP, 01, 2011061100, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1089W, 100, 963, HU, 50, NEQ, 45, 35, 30, 35, 1010, 250, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
EP, 01, 2011061100, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1089W, 100, 963, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1010, 250, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,

[HURAKAN]

Latest ACE

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN STEADILY ERODING DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY. TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS
WELL AS UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WERE 5.5/102 KT
AT 00Z. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM SINCE THEN AND
THE RATHER DISHEVELED-LOOKING CDO SUGGESTS THAT ADRIAN IS PROBABLY
WEAKER. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT...WHICH
COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD
COLDER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.
BY 72-96 HOURS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE AND ALLOW ADRIAN TO MOVE MORE POLEWARD. HOWEVER...BY
THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY
HAVE DECOUPLED DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR AND COLD SSTS NEAR
22C....RESULTING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING STEERED MORE
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WHILE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE FORCED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ADRIAN IS CURRENTLY OVER 26.5C SSTS AND COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD OF
THE CYCLONE. ALSO...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE COMBINATION
OF COLDER SSTS AND HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE RATE OF
WEAKENING COULD EVEN BE FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 96-120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.6N 109.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 15.9N 110.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 16.7N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 17.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.7N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011

ADRIAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING IMPLOSIVE FILLING. A RECENT TRMM
OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BROKEN OPEN...WITH THE
REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CYCLONE ALSO HAS
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE RAPID
DECAY MAKES THE INITIAL INTENSITY PROBLEMATIC. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 90 AND 77 KT RESPECTIVELY AT 0600
UTC. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF AN EYEWALL STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THESE
ESTIMATES ARE TOO HIGH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 75
KT...AND THIS COULD BE QUITE GENEROUS.

THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/10. OTHER THAN
THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ADRIAN IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC...WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE ADRIAN TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
THE ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ADRIAN COULD
COMPLETELY SHEAR APART WITH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT BEING STEERED
MORE WESTWARD THAN FORECAST BY THE OTHER GUIDANCE. IN DEFERENCE TO
THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

A COMBINATION OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD KEEP THE
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND GOING. ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND
HWRF SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BEFORE 96 HR...AND THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADRIAN COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 15.8N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 16.0N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 16.5N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 17.0N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 17.6N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

EP, 01, 2011061112, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1111W, 65, 988, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 50, 60, 1007, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
EP, 01, 2011061112, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1111W, 65, 988, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1007, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
EP, 01, 2011061112, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1111W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 0, 20, 1007, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,

Still a hurricane in the best track at 12z.

[Cyclenall]

Looking through the images on NASA GHCC, I give it another 12 hours before all you see left is a remnant low, with intermittent convection poofing up.

12 hours later and your pretty close in that prediction. Looks more like a 40 knot TS now with that appearance and 65 knots for current intensity is very generous. Very rapid weakening commenced since the last time I checked it and that is puzzling. Obviously weakening was expected but even the worst of unwinding scenarios didn't show this quick of implosion. To add to that, Annular hurricanes tend to weaken much slower than other hurricanes so what gives?

[supercane]

Now a tropical storm:
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 111438
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THE RAPID WEAKENING OF ADRIAN CONTINUES AS THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS DEVOLVING TOWARD A SHEAR PATTERN. THE
DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UNEXPECTEDLY EARLY
INCREASE OF VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS.
WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUES BOTH
ARE RULE-CONSTRAINED TO INDICATE HURRICANE INTENSITY...THE AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE MUCH WEAKER. A BLEND
OF THESE ARE THE BASIS FOR THE 60 KT INTENSITY AT ADVISORY
TIME...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. WITH ADRIAN DROPPING FROM A
115 KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN JUST 24 HOURS...
THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF EXTREME RAPID FILLING FOR A CYCLONE OVER
WATER. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO
STRONG SHEAR...ADRIAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT
INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ADRIAN IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT PRIMARILY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF CALIFORNIA MAY ACT TO
TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS GONE FROM THIS SYSTEM IN
ABOUT 36-48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TO BAM-SHALLOW
THEREAFTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK PREDICTION WERE
MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 15.8N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 16.0N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 16.5N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 18.0N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA

[Hurricane Jed]

Looking through the images on NASA GHCC, I give it another 12 hours before all you see left is a remnant low, with intermittent convection poofing up.

12 hours later and your pretty close in that prediction. Looks more like a 40 knot TS now with that appearance and 65 knots for current intensity is very generous. Very rapid weakening commenced since the last time I checked it and that is puzzling. Obviously weakening was expected but even the worst of unwinding scenarios didn't show this quick of implosion. To add to that, Annular hurricanes tend to weaken much slower than other hurricanes so what gives?

It might have to do with size. Adrian was a very small compact hurricane versus another hurricanes said to have displayed annular characteristics like Felicia in 2009 or Isabel in 2003 which were much larger. Maybe it takes a shorter amount of time for smaller hurricanes to weaken rapidly than bigger ones because there not as much storm there to breakdown. Versus a larger hurricane which would take time to breakdown because of its size. No idea if this holds true or not, just a guess.

[Bobo2000]

It intensifies quickly, it weakens quickly.




_____________________________
DO YOU SMELL WHAT HE IS COOKING!

[tolakram]

Naked.

[brunota2003]

Dang! I should of said 18 hours

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011

ADRIAN IS WEAKENING AS FAST AS IT INTENSIFIED...AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW
PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RAPIDLY DECAYING
DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SINCE ADRIAN IS ALREADY AFFECTED BY STRONG
SHEAR...SURROUNDED BY STABLE AIR...AND MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY
COOLER WATERS...IT COULD EASILY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR
SOONER. SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD
REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER BETWEEN NOW AND DISSIPATION.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN TWO
DAYS...BUT BY THEN ADRIAN SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 15.8N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 15.9N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1800Z 18.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA