EPAC: ADRIAN - Tropical Depression

[Hurricane Jed]

Anyone think Adrian possibly could have been a "vortcane"?

[Chacor]

Naked.

That's pretty impressive, actually. Reminds me of Hurricane Bertha from a few years ago which had very weak convection but maintained an eye. That really does have the appearance of a weak eyewall.

[Chacor]

WTPZ31 KNHC 120242
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...ADRIAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN....


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 113.9W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ADRIAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY AND
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...ADRIAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN....


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 113.9W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ADRIAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY AND
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Chacor]

WTPZ41 KNHC 120247
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011

A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY HAVE BRIEFLY HALTED THE WEAKENING PROCESS. SINCE THEN...
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON WANE. AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ADRIAN HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...OR 275/10. MOST
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ADRIAN WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD NORTHWEST OR
NORTH. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN LATITUDE SEEMS RATHER
UNLIKELY SINCE ADRIAN IS WEAKENING INTO A SHALLOW SYSTEM RATHER
THAN MAINTAINING VERTICAL INTEGRITY LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN SHEARED MORE
THAN 200 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. THE RESULT IS THAT ADRIAN AND ITS SHALLOW REMNANTS ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES ALONG THE EXTREME LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NOW THAT THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...
ADRIAN SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS...A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF MODEST CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED
WEAKENING...WITH ADRIAN BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 18-24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 15.8N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 16.1N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 16.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1200Z 17.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0000Z 18.5N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Chacor]

Still a TS:

EP, 01, 2011061206, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1144W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1008, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, M,

[cycloneye]

Final Advisory


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2011

ADRIAN IS ESSENTIALLY A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW TRANSIENT PUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE ADRIAN
HAS LARGELY BEEN DEVOID OF CONVECTION FOR A WHILE NOW...IT NO
LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BASED UPON AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE STILL VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF THE
CIRCULATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS
ADRIAN IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF
ADRIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATING
AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
SINCE THE MODELS FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT ASSUME A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHEN ADRIAN IS ALREADY A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS WHICH WEAKEN ADRIAN
FASTER.

THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON ADRIAN. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 16.5N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 13/0000Z 17.1N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/1200Z 17.8N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0000Z 18.7N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Macrocane]

Bye bye Adrian, it was a very system to watch just like its 2005 incarnation.

[Brent]

I'm just amazed that there's NOTHING left...

[plasticup]

Looking through the images on NASA GHCC, I give it another 12 hours before all you see left is a remnant low, with intermittent convection poofing up.

I read this on Friday and thought "no way, that's crazy"

Then boom, Adrian implodes.

[brunota2003]

Looking through the images on NASA GHCC, I give it another 12 hours before all you see left is a remnant low, with intermittent convection poofing up.

I read this on Friday and thought "no way, that's crazy"

Then boom, Adrian implodes.

I wasn't right on the money (it was really just shy of 36 hours before the NHC called it a remnant low, making my guess 24 hours off), but he did collapse amazingly quickly.