Upcoming week - June 13-19

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

In a word, YUCK! What was I thinking calling for Invest 94L when it was not far from very strong shear that was pretty much destined to tear it into shreds? Not only that, I called for a rain threat for Florida to the Carolinas, which didn’t even come close to happening! OK, at least I was right that it would be lopsided. Oh, and I called for no other tropical cyclone activity. Unfortunately, this is far from enough to make up for the well-deserved grade for this past week: F.

Yikes, things can only get better for me. Now that that train wreck of a prediction is gone, let’s get an A this week.

Current situation and models

There are currently no Invests to look at right now anywhere in the Atlantic. A somewhat interesting disturbance recently pushed off the African coast, but no reliable models show this or anything else developing this upcoming week. There are simply not enough favorable atmospheric conditions to support development on the surface right now. True, waters are warm and the Saharan Air Layer (our good friend SAL) is weaker than normal, but there is still a lot of shear out there. Last seeming nail in the coffin is an unfavorable MJO appears to be in the cards this upcoming week.

Recent history

Since 1960, the following storms have developed between June 13-19:

An unnamed tropical storm in 1965
Brenda in 1968
Agnes in 1972
Ana in 1979
Arlene in 1993
Arthur in 1996

That’s only six new storms in the modern era this upcoming week, and only Brenda and Agnes managed to become minimal hurricanes. All the other storms were minimal to marginal tropical storms at peak intensity. Of course, we all know what Agnes later on did, but she is not known for what she did on the coast as a hurricane. Rather, she was like Allison, and sat over Pennsylvania and deluged that state for days.

Also to note, that all storms active coming into June 13 were pretty much on their way out: Arlene in 1999, Allison in 2001, and Alberto in 2006. Allison still had some rains to dump in the South, but was no further threat to develop tropically.

So what does this all tell us?

It looks pretty bad for any type of development this upcoming week. No model really sees anything getting going this week and environmental conditions are just not there right now. When you couple that with history suggesting a new storm to develop about once every eight years or so (granted, we’re overdue as the last one was in 1996), the odds of any tropical cyclone activity are very low.

The Prediction

I’m wearing some big red marks coming into this week, especially after this most previous one with Invest 94L. However, I think I’ve got it down this week. Pretty much, if anything develops, it would be a major surprise. I predict no tropical cyclone development this upcoming week. Confidence is 95%.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

I know, one more advisory to go, but do you see anything popping in the Atlantic in the next two hours?

This was, ahem, MUCH better. This was admittedly a very easy prediction to call, but after the week before with Invest 94L, I’ll take a perfect call any way I get it. It was a simple prediction for no development, due to atmospheric conditions being too hostile for anything to get going, including strong shear and an unfavorable MJO. Indeed, nothing happened that deviated from this prediction, not even any Invests, so my grade for this past week is an A.

June 20-26 in just a few.

-Andrew92