Global model runs discussion

#2101 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:15 pm

GFS has tried that solution at 384 hours so many times this year that maybe once it will get it right! lol

#2102 Postby **Rgv20** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:05 am

GFS Fantasy Land has it in the Bay Of Campeche.

#2103 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 8:05 am

Both the Euro and Canadian have the same same scenario

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#2104 Postby **Vortex** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 9:01 am

Looks reasonable. Well see how future guidance follows suit or Not.

#2105 Postby **Rgv20** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:16 pm

Notice the nice 200mb Ridge that the GFS is forecasting to set up in the Bay of Campeche and the Western Caribbean. That would imply a really favorable environment as we head into late June.

blp · #2106 Postby **blp** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 5:55 pm

For those that like to look into the ultra long range. The CFS has been adverstising for over a week now that the real action is going to begin first and second week of July. The site below is about 2 days behind in the output but you can scroll though the previous week. I think the CFS did a decent job last year of picking up the pattern of mid atlantic recurvature. This year it seams to be bringing the development a little further west.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&WMO=&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201106100000%26HH%3D336

BTW: it is good to be back on storm2k, I hope everyone has a safe year.

#2107 Postby **Rgv20** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 6:32 pm

18zGFS continues to show favorable conditions for a tropical disturbance to start taking shape in the Western Caribbean as early as next thursday.

#2108 Postby **OuterBanker** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 8:29 am

Apparently the reincarnation of 94L.

#2109 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:47 am

wxman57 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The GFS is less than stellar predicting MJO occurrences, IMO. Trends have been to disregard that 40 day cycle as it has not verified well of late.

It's not just the GFS, it's every model on the MJO site. They all keep the MJO signal very weak and in the Indian Ocean to West Pac for quite a while.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml

The GFS has now joined the UKMET suggesting an uptick regarding that mjo pulse (albeit weak) I mentioned last week...

#2110 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:32 pm

12z GFS

#2111 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:05 pm

The 6/13/11 run of GFS at 12z continues to indicate favorable conditions in the Western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche/Southern GOM in the long range as a big upper anticyclone is there.

#2112 Postby **Rgv20** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:03 pm

18zGFS continues to advertise favorable conditions in the Gulf for the end of June.

#2113 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:37 pm

GFS is just not giving up on this at all. I'm starting to give it more credence!

#2114 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:17 pm

Still sniffing it out. I just wonder if it will be a weak storm or not. If conditions are going to be favorable then I say it will be all or nothing. The SSTs are certainly there. If an anticyclone gets into place then something could probably bomb out, even this early in the season.

#2115 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 7:18 am

GFS has been very consistent about showing this system in the GOM for the past 4 days of runs.And it continues now in less than 300 hours timeframe.When you look for model eficiency, a model that shows consistency is key,even if is on long range.

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#2116 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 8:10 am

I agree Cycloneye and this has been consistent not only day to day but every run every day. I have to believe the TW now approaching the Southern Islands and the NE S. Amer. coast is the genesis in this solution.

flwxwatcher · #2117 Postby **flwxwatcher** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 9:59 am

Dean4Storms wrote:I agree Cycloneye and this has been consistent not only day to day but every run every day. I have to believe the TW now approaching the Southern Islands and the NE S. Amer. coast is the genesis in this solution.

The GFS has been consistent but it also did this in the long range with what became 94L and nothing happened. Getting more interested but not buying it lock stock and barrel just yet.

#2118 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 10:35 am

The Euro model has consistently shown a break in the ridge over the western Gulf which would lead whatever this system is north.

#2119 Postby **Vortex** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 11:42 am

A few more runs and with favorable environmental conditions I'd say this area stands a good shot.

Hurricane · #2120 Postby **Hurricane** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 12:13 pm

The Central Atlantic mess is the culprit! I made a post about it in the talking tropics forum. Lets get some model runs there.

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