Change the way Tornado Warnings are done?

[vbhoutex]

This was posted on FB by James Spann of ABC 33/40 in birmingham. In Houston we haven't had sirens for many years. We don't have a lot of tornados here, but we have plenty of threats. I think he has some good points expecially after reading and hearing some of the comments by survivors of both the AL and Joplin tornados. What do you think?
http://www.facebook.com/l/2d404JkIgD7Eb0jbTmggR2soVnQ/www.alabamawx.com/?p=48699

[wxman57]

I don't think that the majority of the tornado warnings are "false alarms", just that the majority of tornadoes are very small and short-lived, but the warnings are valid. As with hurricanes, they're not all alike. Warnings don't differentiate between a small, short-lived EF0 that may dissipate as soon as the warning is issued and a long-tracked EF5. When the warnings are issued it's often hard to tell if the tornado will dissipate soon or grow into a larger one.

I know that with the tornadoes of April 27th, I've never seen such well-defined tornadoes on radar. They were clearly the types of storms that would be around for quite a while. Maybe the warnings could contain info on the potential size and longevity of the tornado?

[TFGQ]

my thing is this when is tornado watch is issued and it is a PDS watch the NWS should state it is a PDS watch instead of just a plain watch same thing for svr thunderstorm watch

[badger70]

The NWS almost has to over-report warnings because the public will be blaming them if a missed warning results in death/injury. And who knows where that would lead...like the dismantling of the NWS (shudder). I think the NWS gets credit for narrowing down the warned areas in the last few seasons. Many mets and the NWS try to educate the public, in severe weather and fair. Maybe the public could benefit from a re-worded message such as "a squall line means winds...maybe nasty winds...perhaps a tornado, so don't wait for us to tell there is one coming," but also the public needs to keep a general awareness of what's going on with the weather. All my opinion, of course.

[HurricaneBill]

The NWS almost has to over-report warnings because the public will be blaming them if a missed warning results in death/injury.

"Plainfield Syndrome"

[WeatherGuesser]

This was posted on FB by James Spann of ABC 33/40 in birmingham.

What do you think?

***//www.facebook.com/.......

I think it would be better if you posted a valid news link instead of a gab/gossip site link.

I don't think that the majority of the tornado warnings are "false alarms",

Around here, probably 80% are 'false' alarms based on 'radar indicated' or 'severe thunderstorm capable of producing'. We have had some tornadoes this year, but very, very few in relation to the number of warnings. I've turned my weather radio off due to so many false warnings.

[wx247]

I have an idea. How about people pay attention to the weather? I don't think that there is any solution that will work unless the people pay attention to the warnings that are issued. I live in an area that is frequently tornado warned. Most times the tornado never reaches the ground, but that doesn't stop me from taking appropriate precautions. You never know when a Tuscaloosa or Joplin tornado will occur. That is why you have to be prepared.

I do agree that some modifications need to be made, but until the public chooses to act -- it doesn't matter what you do.

[crm6360]

The NWS should include PDS wording when they disseminate warnings. Would be the simplest fix - even if not perfect.

Was joplin's tornado even in a PDS warned area?

[wxman57]

Around here, probably 80% are 'false' alarms based on 'radar indicated' or 'severe thunderstorm capable of producing'. We have had some tornadoes this year, but very, very few in relation to the number of warnings. I've turned my weather radio off due to so many false warnings.

I don't think you can say that just because an area isn't hit by a big long-lasting tornado that a warning is a false alarm. Just because you weren't hit by the tornado doesn't make the warning "false". Doppler radar is pretty good at indicating rotation that can very shortly lead to a tornado. It may be that the tornado doesn't touch down or that it does touch down briefly in an area where it causes no damage, but that doesn't make the alarm "false".

The only other option would be to wait until a tornado is confirmed on the ground to issue a warning. That would result in significantly shorter warning times, or no warning at all. People need to listen to the message in the warning. The contents of the message should identify the level of risk (i.e. a Doppler-indicated tornado or a massive mile-wide tornado already on the ground heading for you).

Ignore the warnings at your own peril. And don't complain when your home isn't destroyed by a tornado but you were warned anyway of the possible danger.

[vbhoutex]

This article was posted by Mike Smith on face book. He is a meteorologist with Accuweather out of their Wichita office. It speaks to personal experience with the subject.

I had not even gotten home from watching last night's storm when the first critical email about the tornado warning in Sedgwick County hit my inbox. I'd like to spend a moment on the subject of the meteorologist's dilemma in these situations.

Yes, it was a "false alarm." A tornado never made it to the ground.

The storm was a "right mover" (tornado indicator), had a hook echo (tornado indicator, image below) and had rotation Doppler radar (tornado indicator). To the naked eye, there was lots of organized, sustained rotation.

Yet, for reasons meteorologists do not understand, the funnel cloud never made it to the ground. That is good -- no tornado damage and no one injured. But, it left people grumping about having to interrupt their activities because of the warning.

In a 2003, paper (available here) I differentiate between "unavoidable" and "unnecessary" false alarms. The former is caused when Mother Nature throws us a curve ball. The latter is when meteorologists know a given area is not threatened but limitations in the warning system cause non-threatened areas to be warned. Last night was some of each.

Take a look at the red polygon which is the National Weather Service's path-based tornado warning. The hook (funnel cloud) location is within the polygon. The area inside the polygon experienced an "unavoidable" (from my point of view) false alarm because the science of meteorology cannot determine why this situation was not a genuine danger. So, to be safe, we warn.

But, look the radar image again and you see a dot and the word, "Wichita." That is downtown Wichita where the annual Wichita River Festival was in progress. Because Sedgwick County sounds the sirens countywide, the River Festival and its patrons were subjected to an unnecessary false alarm due to the structure of the county's siren network. It is "all or nothing." That put River Festival officials in a no-win situation. They made the right decision (in my opinion) to shelter.

Fortunately, Sedgwick Co. is in the process of changing the configuration of its siren network so that by tornado season 2012 the sirens will only go off in the path of the storm.

The initial tornado warnings last night were absolutely justified given the imperfect state-of-the-art. I'm sure are plenty of residents of Joplin, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Minneapolis, Raleigh, St. Louis, etc., that wish their tornado warnings this year had been false alarms. This is life-and-death business.

That said, I'm empathetic to the people who took shelter for what seems like no good reason. I'm hopeful we will achieve some breakthrough in the science that will allow us to cut down on the unavoidable false alarms.

http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/06/what-should-meteorologists-do.html?spref=fb

[bvigal]

I didn't read what James Span posted. I've had an "info@" email address for 14 years, and Facebook won't let me have an account with it, because they are "too likely" to belong to a business! Every business on earth has a Facebook account, who are they kidding? I'm not logging in to Facebook just to read something, and I strongly resent all our government agencies opening facebook pages when those in power got giant campaign contributions, own STOCK and are getting filthy rich on it. Tax dollars shouldn't be giving stuff to private clubs the public has to JOIN to see what is happening, and what their taxes paid for. It's disgusting. 20 years ago it would have been considered criminal.

As to tornadoes, so many people in both Alabama and Joplin admitted they usually "ignored" the sirens. Folks, where then is a TORNADO WATCH, you should keep a weather radio on ($30), or stay near a tv or radio so you will know instantly when a TORNADO WARNING is issued. Once a warning is issued, take cover, or be prepared to die. You don't have to go see it, film it, or wait for your local Jim Cantori-type to show it to you on LIVE VIDEO. Get your butt below ground or kiss it goodbye, and don't blame anyone if it's too much trouble for you because you live in tornado alley and it happens too often. I'm sick of whiney people who want some government agency to come in their bathroom and wipe their little bottom for them, give them their bath, put on their jammies, and tuck them in bed. Let them know THE WEATHER IS BAD - that's it - NO further responsibility! If people are that stupid, well, we can't EVER get the warning system good enough to overcome gross foolishness...

And let's face it, really bad outbreaks like we had this year, some people are going to die. Those were bombs going off, basically and it's impossible that people will all have that foolproof a place to go. But boy, I avoid the Walmart, mall, grocery store, and places like that when there's tornado weather. I don't want to be caught by surprise under a football field of sheet metal roofing and steel beams when they come down and chop me in half. I would really check the weather for a "safe" window first. Once you are in the store, unless you have a weather radio, you are oblivious, cos your SHOPPING (LOL).

As to the large number of people who killed in their workplaces, they didn't have a choice where to be. If the Pizza Hut wants me to work through a tornado watch, they better have a safe room, not just a walkin cooler. Workplaces should have tornado drills, too, and safe rooms/cellers are not that expensive if installed when the building is constructed. In the 50s and 60s they built all large buildings with bomb shelters. Remember the yellow triangles?

[Shoshana]

We rarely get tornado warnings for the part of Austin we live in. We get tornado warnings on occasion with the radio goin off and all the tv people excited but the tornadoes don't develop or they don't touch down. And all of those are miles and miles away.

That said, the Jarrell F5 was 30 miles or so from here and the Cedar Park F3? was even closer so it's not like they never occur in the area- they just haven't been very close.

What we get a lot of normally are severe thunderstorms, large hail and high winds.

No sirens tho here. When we lived in Dallas I remember they went to a siren system that had a bunch of different siren patterns depending on the emergency. I thought that was stupid - you could here there was a siren going off (unless they had the guy talking over it) but since there were like a dozen different reasons they could set them off it was difficult to know how to react. You had to go figure out which pattern they were doing, look it up, then react. When they tested the human voice that was worse to me cause the thing rotates and made it impossible to figure out what they were saying.

From what I can tell, they're back to a 'siren = tornado' system which I think is much better.

This last tornado outbreak in N Texas my sister calls me and says the sirens are going off. Calls back 5 min later to say they are goin off again and what should she do. Then my mom calls and says they are goin off where she is - 30 miles from my sister. I sent everyone to their respective laundry rooms (the only interior room they have - scary cause both of them have the laundry room in between their kitchen and garage). My mom and stepdad go in there for like a minute, get bored and leave. They have been thru it b4 and it's always been a 'false alarm'.

I like the idea of just setting off sirens and weather radios in the polygons where the danger is highest because a lot of people will get complacent when the tornado or severe storm with hail never happens or happens 20 miles away.

I don't know why, but so many people I know get watches and warnings confused - I keep explaining and they keep telling me they should be the other way around. Like watch means "There's a tornado coming WATCH out!" I keep telling them a watch means 'conditions are ripe for whatever the watch is for' and they should keep up with the weather and plan what they should do if a warning is issued. And a warning means 'it's happening NOW" and their preps should all b done and they should get to a safe place.

I've also noticed that people ignore watches. Totally. I think that's why so many people get caught at places like Wal-Mart.

Maybe the terminology needs updating?

[brunota2003]

Well, just because there is a watch, doesn't mean to stop doing day to day things...it just means you need to keep an eye to the sky and be ready to take cover at a moments notice. If you don't NEED to go to Wal-Mart, then don't go...but if you do, keep the radio on or something handy to alert you if a warning is issued.

Perhaps the watches need to be broken down more to give the true risk out to the general public? Most people probably don't even know about the percentages, let alone what they mean. Give different meanings, much like a regular TOR Watch/PDS TOR Watch...but more broken down.

As far as warnings go...not sure how you could break those down, or honestly, if you would even want to. A warning is a warning is a warning. No different than hurricane warnings...most areas in the warning get hit, but some do not. The only break down you could do (that seems even remotely feasible atm) is a regular tornado warning for radar indicted tornadoes and rotating wall clouds, something different for when there is a funnel cloud spotted/tornado on the ground or tornado damage...and then of course, the tornado emergencies.

But, likewise, if you are going to do that for tornadoes, then why not severe thunderstorms, too? One warning for 1 to 2 inch hail, another for 2 to 3 inch hail, and another for 3+ inch hail (hail emergency?). Another is severe winds...if it is 58 to 70 mph, regular warning, 70 to 80 mph, enhanced wording maybe, and automatic EAS broadcast (even if it is a severe update), 80+ mph, siren activation required?

It just opens a can of worms for everything else, too.

[jinftl]

Here's my thought - even the largest of the tornadoes that brought cataclysmic damage to many areas this spring wasn't more than a mile wide (more or less). Some counties are 50 or 100 miles in size. Hasn't technology progressed to the point of detection and monitoring that when a tornado is on the ground, it is pretty obvious that alot of the 'county under warning' won't see the tornado.

Why can't we drill down from the county warning and start warning specific zip codes, towns, cities, even streets when a clear tornado signal has been detected. Most tornadoes move in a a northeasterly direction, so let's warn a 5 or 10 mile swath as a precaution...not the whole county.

Doppler technology even on the local weather shows the radar real-time at the street level. Why can't we now put warnings out at the zip code level....not the county level?

Heck, even cellular phone companies could take the step that if a customer's zip code is in a tornado warning, a free text warning is sent out? Most local news stations have a free service that will do the same and can be signed up for on their websites.

Let's make technology work for us, it's out there. Sure there will be instances where a tornado signature on radar hasn't been confirmed on land. But with the tornadoes that really do the most damage, is there really any question if the radar signature is right? We have traffic reporter helicopters following the twisters these days.

[brunota2003]

The NWS does specific warnings now with the polygram...but something with the programming of weather radios and such still only allows for the whole county to be warned when the warnings themselves are issued.

[wall_cloud]

Here's my thought - even the largest of the tornadoes that brought cataclysmic damage to many areas this spring wasn't more than a mile wide (more or less). Some counties are 50 or 100 miles in size. Hasn't technology progressed to the point of detection and monitoring that when a tornado is on the ground, it is pretty obvious that alot of the 'county under warning' won't see the tornado.

Why can't we drill down from the county warning and start warning specific zip codes, towns, cities, even streets when a clear tornado signal has been detected. Most tornadoes move in a a northeasterly direction, so let's warn a 5 or 10 mile swath as a precaution...not the whole county.

Doppler technology even on the local weather shows the radar real-time at the street level. Why can't we now put warnings out at the zip code level....not the county level?

I think your understanding of our technology is flawed. Warnings are issued for specific areas (heard of polygon warnings)? There are problems, however. Many television stations still use the crawl system, which doesn't show the polygon OR they still display the warnings as county based using FIPS codes instead of lat/lon coordinates. They are catching up but its still taking a while, especially in the smaller markets. Many tornadoes move in a northeasterly direction but no all of them do. Jarrell was a prime example (F5 moving south-southwest). Many right moving storms track due east. Nevermind the fact that the occluding mesocyclones can result in extreme movements away from the path the storm has taken previously.

Doppler technology doesn't show the radar in real time at the street level. that is all a farce that is used by TV to make you watch. We get scans in typically 5 minute intervals (depending on the
VCP being used). the data you see (lowest tilt) doesn't update between scans. It can't. The resolution is also not up to snuff when it comes to street level. The radar beem is 0.5 degrees wide and spreads out as it moves away from the radar. Typical range bins are 0.25 km by 0.5 degrees AT BEST. The farther you move from the radar, the larger the bin (and the higher above the ground the beam). the 'street level' can get you within 1/8 of a mile right next to the radar but may be average over several miles once you reach an appreciable distance from the radar. The technology is fantastic, but its not as good as you give it credit for being.

Heck, even cellular phone companies could take the step that if a customer's zip code is in a tornado warning, a free text warning is sent out? Most local news stations have a free service that will do the same and can be signed up for on their websites.

Let's make technology work for us, it's out there. Sure there will be instances where a tornado signature on radar hasn't been confirmed on land. But with the tornadoes that really do the most damage, is there really any question if the radar signature is right? We have traffic reporter helicopters following the twisters these days.

There are MANY instances where tornadoes are not confirmed on land. If you live west of I-35 you know that. Hell, I see storms that I KNOW are producing baseball size hail but the warnings fail to verify because 1) nobody was there or 2) nobody thought to call in their report. We can't NOT issue because we think we aren't going to get verification because we never know where people are going to be. I worked a storm in 2007 which resulted in two fatalities. This storm was about 120 miles from the nearest radar. That means we were hitting the storm at about 10,000 feet with the lowest tilt. There is not 'tornado' signature to be found at that level. Sure, we can see the mesocyclone but all supercells have a mesocyclone. We can't warn on that. As for the helicopters...yeah right. I'm not sure if there is a helicopter west of I-35 (in the Plains). OKC, Dallas and many other big weather markets have them but that sure doesn't help those outside of their DMAs very much.

[WeatherGuesser]

Doppler technology even on the local weather shows the radar real-time at the street level.


But with the tornadoes that really do the most damage, is there really any question if the radar signature is right?

How did I miss these two statements? Maybe they're just so ludicrous my mind skipped right over them.

[bvigal]

wall_cloud, thanks for the clarity! I especially liked your description how radar works, what it sees (and doesn't), and that tornadoes are unpredictable, and don't follow man-made rules.

I certainly don't expect the NWS to figure out a way to make up for common sense some people lack. A Tornado OR Severe Thunderstorm WATCH should cause people to keep updated on the weather, ready to respond immediately to seek cover if a warning is issued. Not everyone can check tv or internet radar every hour, but can make a phone call to someone who can.

Something else people don't seem to understand, that funnel has to drop somewhere. If you are right under it when it comes down, nobody is going to warn you. The idea is to be aware. I can here the condemnation now: NWS issues warning for funnel on the ground, it recedes and another drops 2mi north in a zipcode that wasn't included in the warning "What are we going to do with the NWS? They didn't warn us!!"

Did you read, FEMA used tax dollars to send a team of engineers to Joplin to "study" the wreckage. The experts "concluded" that maybe it isn't safe to be in Home Depot-type buildings when a tornado hits? No! Really???? They further concluded that buildings in question: home depot, walmart, academy sports, etc. WERE built in compliance with building codes (hold onto your seat so don't fall and hurt yourself)... to withstand winds of 90mph . . . .

If you live in the midwest, you know thunderstorms generate straightline winds of 100mph, so you don't need a TORNADO to be in danger inside such a building.

If there is any key to better education, it is to teach people to take precautions against severe thunderstorms, all the hazards that kill people: hail, straight line winds, lightning, reduced visibilities, sudden flash flooding, etc. If people do that, they will likely already be protected from most tornadoes, certainly aware of the risk. We need to remove the sensationalism ("only EF4&5 and Cat 4& 5 are interesting, ignore everything else") that sells media advertising and return to the cold, hard facts and teach all the statistics of deaths/damage costs associated with severe thunderstorms.

[RL3AO]

The closest we'll get to live radar is phased array radar which I believe would be able to update every 30 seconds. However, that is still as least 10 years away and probably further with the current budget problems.

[brunota2003]

Perhaps buildings like wal-mart should have large, dedicated safe rooms at the back of the building.