Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[vbhoutex]

I don't like being a party pooper, but for TX there is no drought buster shown in any of this(yet). Not saying we won't get rain if this comes to fruition, but I am going to believe it when I see it falling from the sky and amounting to more than 0.05" at a time. We've had 0.09" so far this month. I am more inclined to believe the splitting of the moisture with some going East and some going West with us in TX getting the fringes.

[boca]

Here in Florida this drought is becoming historic we can't buy a drop of rain.We are stuck in a nw flow pattern that is cutting off our moisture supply.we need the flow to change to the south or SE which would bring us a moist flow from the tropics.

[Vortex]

Living here in fort lauderdale for 39 years I can't recall a June so dry thus far. It tends to be the rainiest month it's anything but. Something has to give. According to NWSMiami the drought indicator is "exceptional" for the area. I thinks it's safe to say at some point this summer or fall a significant rainfall or 2 is quite likely. Mother nature always balances things out.

[tailgater]

This the GFDL forecast through 126hrs. At the end of the run it does show so moisture building in the western GOM. here in South LA, nada.

[lrak]

VALUES NEAR OR OVER 2 INCHES...WILL BE IN THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS STILL DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVES IT NORTHWARD. WAY TOO
SOON TO GET EXCITED FOR THE TROPICS AS THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL
SHOWING THIS. BUT AT LEAST THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE SUCH THAT
MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES LOOK WARRANTED. FOR NOW KEPT HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

From the Corpus Christi NWS.

[jasons2k]

Snip from our local Met Jeff Lindner:

Expect very warm conditions over the weekend with highs into the 100’s and lows near 80 with no rainfall. Starting Monday the stubborn upper ridge shifts far to the northeast of the area as a trough plowing across the north plains. The tail end of this trough will break off and create a shear axis or weakness across the state of TX lowering mid level heights and reducing the capping. At the same time the tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean Sea will surge NW across the Gulf of Mexico toward this weakness in the height field. PWS of 2.0-2.4 inches will move NW from the Yucatan and toward the TX coast by Tuesday.

Air mass becomes very tropical by late Tuesday as PWS start to exceed the magic 2.0 inch range. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop on this surge of deep moisture Tuesday afternoon as the air mass goes uncapped and trigger temperatures fall to the mid 80’s. Wednesday and Thursday look like the wettest days as PWS peak in the 2.2-2.4 inch range supporting the threat of widespread heavy rainfall. GFS attempts to develop a surface low pressure reflection off the NE MX coast around the middle of the week and moves this feature northward into the shear axis over TX and inland around Matagorda Bay. At this time will keep the tropical wave axis as an open wave and not close off a surface low, but it is possible that some weak tropical development could spin up near the coast toward the middle/end of next week.

[Ivanhater]

06z GFS does seem to have the bulk of the deep tropical rain east of Texas but time for that to change. That is a lot of rain for the north central gulf coast.

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[Ivanhater]

12z GFS develops "Arlene" down to 1001mb riding right up the Texas coast

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[PTrackerLA]

Indeed. Looks much more organized than previous runs and moves very slowly.

[jasons2k]

I just might have to go restock the popcorn....this is getting more and more interesting. We're getting close to the timeframe where the models can be taken a bit more seriously. Plus, this is not too uncommon in June.

[Ivanhater]

Low pressure forming at the end of the run on the 12z Canadian

[cyclogenesis]

June 17, 2011
this Friday afternoon
141 PM CDT


Hey Gang ~~


For all y'all that want to know about the NEW consensus aids (multi-model ensembles) that are going to be the primary used ones for 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season, I have posted what they are on this weblink thread appearing down below on this Storm2K forum board:


viewtopic.php?f=29&t=110991






-- cyclogenesis

[NDG]

12z euro is beginning to trend toward the GFS solutions. It shows a low pressure area to form real close to the Mexican coast as early as Tuesday down in the BOC.
The euro is beginning to catch on the trough that will be weakening in the western portion of the subtropical atlantic ridge by the middle of next week. It at least agrees into some much needed tropical moisture to move into the NW gulf coast.

[PTrackerLA]

Just a quick side note, I noticed a lot of times this past winter the Euro trended towards the GFS solution in the end game. We may be seeing that now. Not trying to start model wars but just something I've observed lately. I'm routing for the GFS I hope next week/weekend becomes a washout!

[BreinLa]

From our local met

http://www.katc.com/news/tropics-may-ge ... in-a-week/

[BigB0882]

If this verifies, even if it isn't a tropical system, the GFS will certainly get a little more respect from me moving into the busy part of the season.

[MGC]

Yes, if the GFS nails this low pressure area like it did the one in the Carribean last week it will get some respect from me too...hope it is correct....need rain bad.....MGC

[Bluefrog]

We need rain in South Mississippi toooo

[Dean4Storms]

It has backed off on the NE movement toward the NE Gulf, 18z just leaves it down there and then slides the low into MX. Still has moisture coming northward but not as much.

[Rainband]

it's the gfs;)